‘No regionalism please, we are Leghisti !’ The transformation of the Italian Lega Nord under the leadership of Matteo Salvini

Figures & data

Table 1. LN’s electoral performance in General elections (1992–2018).

Year	%
1992	8.7
1994	8.4
1996	10.1
2001	3.9
2006	4.6
2008	8.3
2013	4.1
2018	17.4

Source: Italian Interior Ministry.

Note: General election results refer to the Chamber of Deputies. In 1994, 1996 and 2001, results refer to the proportional share of the vote only

Table 2. LN’s electoral performance in the General elections 2013 and 2018, by region (Chamber of Deputies) – %.

Region	2013	2018
Aosta Valley	3.29	17.5
Piedmont	4.8	22.6
Lombardy	12.9	28
Liguria	2.3	19.9
Veneto	10.5	32.2
Friuli-Venezia Giulia	6.7	25.8
Trentino-Alto Adige	4.2	19.2
Emilia-Romagna	2.6	19.2
Tuscany	0.7	17.4
Umbria	0.6	20.2
Marche	0.7	17.3
Lazio	0.2	13.4
Abruzzo	0.2	13.8
Sardinia	0.1	10.8
Molise	0.2	8.7
Campania	0.3	4.3
Basilicata	0.1	6.3
Apulia	0.1	6.2
Calabria	0.3	5.6
Sicily	0.2	5.2

Source: Elaboration from Vampa (2018)

Figure 1. Lega Nord’s posts on Facebook: thematic categorization (January 2014–May 2017).

Figure 2. Matteo Salvini’s posts on Facebook: thematic categorization (January 2014–May 2017).

Figure 3. Lega Nord’s and Matteo Salvini’s posts on Facebook: National and Northern Values, Needs and Interests (January 2014–May 2017).

Figure 4. Geographical focus of the Lega Nord’s and Matteo Salvini’s posts on Facebook (January 2014–May 2017)

Table 1a. Reports the details of randomly selected days for each year.

Details of the sample: list of randomly selected days covered per each year
2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
15 December	03 January	03 January	03 January	03 January
27 December	18 January	18 January	18 January	18 January
	19 January	19 January	19 January	19 January
	21 February	21 February	21 February	21 February
	21 March	21 March	21 March	21 March
	03 April	03 April	03 April	03 April
	11 April	11 April	11 April	11 April
	21 April	21 April	21 April	21 April
	03 May	03 May	03 May	03 May
	23 May	23 May	23 May
	12 June	12 June	12 June
	14 June	14 June	14 June
	19 June	19 June	19 June
	06 July	06 July	06 July
	10 July	10 July	10 July
	12 July	12 July	12 July
	28 July	28 July	28 July
	04 August	04 August	04 August
	06 August	06 August	06 August
	26 August	26 August	26 August
	10 September	10 September	10 September
	18 September	18 September	18 September
	27 September	27 September	27 September
	03 October	03 October	03 October
	19 October	19 October	19 October
	21 November	21 November	21 November
	23 November	23 November	23 November
	28 November	28 November	28 November
	09 December	09 December	09 December
	12 December	12 December	12 December

Table 2a. Codebook details (coding, coding instructions, examples).

EUROPE

[1= Reference to EU or EU related issues; 0= No reference to EU or EU related issues]

Coding instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to the European Union, Euro, EU funds, EU commission or other EU institutions/political actors. It also includes those posts focusing on domestic issues that make reference to the role of the EU. Moreover, it has to be underlined that, taking into account external events that may have occurred during the period considered, in some cases we registered posts making reference to other European political actors (i.e. references to Angela Merkel declarations) as related to Europe.

Examples

Lega Nord FB page (May 2016): SALVINI: NON VOGLIO CEDERE ULTERIORE SOVRANITÀ ALL’EUROPA OGNI VOLTA ABBIAMO SOLO SUBITO FREGATURE. L’Europa faccia poche cose e le faccia bene. Dalla Bolkestein all’immigrazione fino alle folli direttive sulla nostra pesca e sulla nostra AGRICOLTURA abbiamo sempre subito INGIUSTIZIE. Basta cedere sovranità. [translation: SALVINI: I DO NOT WANT TO CEDE FURTHER SOVEREIGNTY TO EUROPE, EVERYTIME WE JUST GOT RIP-OFFS. Europe should do few things and should do them well. From Bolkestein to immigration, not to mention crazy directives affecting our fishing industry and our AGRICULTURE, we only suffered INIQUITY. Enough of giving our sovereignty away] Salvini’s FB page (July 2015): Formaggio senza latte vino senza uva cioccolato senza cacao. Se è questo che ci impone l’Europa come denunciano la Coldiretti la Lega e tanti altri ANDIAMOCENE!!! [translation: Cheese without milk, wine without grapes, chocolate without cocoa. If this is what Europe imposes on us, as Coldiretti, the Lega and many others are saying, let’s leave!!!]

ECONOMIC CRISIS

[1= Reference to the economic crisis or bad economic situation for the country; 0= No references to economic crisis or bad economic situation for the country]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to the economic crisis. In particular, we coded posts focusing on issues such as: unemployment, unemployment rates, shrinking of the welfare state, austerity policies, industrial production, taxes, the job market.

Examples

Lega Nord’s Facebook page (January 2016): Troppe tasse: gli italiani riducono anche le spese per addobbi e alberi di Natale. [translation: Too many taxes: Italians are even cutting down on Christmas decorations and Christmas trees] Salvini’s Facebook page (January 2015): I negozi degli immigrati aprono i negozi degli italiani chiudono. O gli italiani sono diventati incapaci o gli stranieri fanno i furbi. Chissà … [translation: Immigrants’ shops open while Italians’ shops close. Either Italians have become incompetent or foreigners are playing tricks. Who knows … ]

IMMIGRATION

[1= Reference to immigration or refugees crisis; 0= No reference to immigration or refugees crisis]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to content related to legal/illegal immigration, refugees, asylum seekers.

Examples

Lega Nord’s Facebook page (November 2016): Clandestino stupratore già espulso torna in Italia e chiede ancora asilo. [translation: Illegal immigrant, rapist, already expelled, comes back to Italy and applies for asylum again] Salvini’s Facebook page (January 2017): INCREDIBILE a Reggio Emilia. Dopo aver protestato in Questura per la qualità del cibo ai PRESUNTI PROFUGHI ospiti della Coop Dimora Abramo è stato assegnato uno CHEF specializzato in piatti africani e pachistani. Cioè questi fanno casino e invece di espellerli gli mandano il cuoco!?! Con tanti italiani che crepano di fame … Vergogna! [translation: UNBELIEVABLE from Reggio Emilia. After protesting with the Police for the quality of the food they receive, the SUPPOSED REFUGEES, who are guests of Abramo Dimora, were assigned a CHEF specialized in African and Pakistani cuisine. What? They cause a mess and instead of expelling them a chef is sent over!?! With so many Italians starving in the meantime … Shame on them!]

TERRORISM

[1= Reference to terrorism; 0= No reference to terrorism]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit reference to content related to terrorism, bombing, suicidal attacks, ISIS, radical Islam.

Examples

Lega Nord’s Facebook page (June 2016): L’ASSASSINO DI PARIGI GIÀ CONDANNATO PER TERRORISMO: EURO2016 SARÀ UN CIMITERO Larossi Abballa combattente dello Stato islamico era stato condannato nel 2013 come appartenente a una rete jihadista tra Francia e Pakistan. [translation: THE KILLER IN PARIS HAD ALREADY BEEN FOUND GUILTY OF TERRORISM OFFENCES: EURO2016 WILL BECOME A CEMETERY Larossi Abballa was a fighter for the Islamic State and had been sentenced in 2013 for joining a jihadist network operating in France and Pakistan] Salvini’s Facebook page (January 2015): Solo oggi scopriamo che alcuni potenziali terroristi giravano tranquilli per l’Italia frequentavano moschee si organizzavano. Ma come le moschee non sono mica oasi di pace??? Prevenire controllare difendere i confini espellere. Prima che sia tardi. Buon lunedì … [translation: Only today we find out that some potential terrorists were travelling through Italy undisturbed, they were attending mosques, they were getting organized. Weren’t mosques supposed to be oases of peace??? We must prevent, control, defend the borders and expel. Before it's too late. Have a good Monday … ].

SECURITY

[1= Reference to security issues (crimes); 0= No reference to security issues (crimes)]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to security issues (i.e. murders, robberies, muggings, rapes, drug dealing, violence, etc.).

Examples

Lega Nord’s FB page (November 2016): Lo scempio della Milano di Sala: gang latine padrone della città [translation: The mess that Sala’s Milan is today: gangs of Latinos control the city]. Salvini’s FB page (November 2016): A Milano 45 arresti per droga (quasi tutti immigrati). A Milano pattuglie coi militari in zona Padova Corvetto e San Siro. Ma come il sindaco Renzi e Alfano dicevano che va tutto bene! Servirebbe una bella PULIZIA GENERALE altro che balle. Non vedo l’ora di cominciare. [translation: 45 people arrested in Milan for drug-related offences (almost all of them immigrants). Military patrols in the Padova Corvetto and San Siro areas of Milan. What? Mayor Renzi and Minister Alfano said that everything was fine! Some WIDESPREAD CLEANSING badly needed no more bullshit. I cannot wait to start.]

NATIONAL VALUES, NEEDS AND INTERESTS

[1= Reference to national values, needs and interests; 0= No reference to national values, needs and interests]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to content related to Italian culture, values, needs and interests. This category includes all messages which focus on preserving Italian culture (i.e. Catholic values, language), as well as mentions of national sovereignty or Italian economic interests.

Examples

Lega Nord’s FB page (December 2014): #Salvini: Maggioranza degli italiani sono persone perbene. IL PRIMO LADRO È LO STATO. [translation: #Salvini: the majority of Italians are good people. THE THIEF IN CHIEF IS THE STATE]. Salvini’s FB page (April 2016): Se devo essere processato perché difendo gli interessi degli italiani allora processatemi domani mattina! [translation: If I have to stand trial because I'm defending the interests of Italians then put me before a judge tomorrow morning!]

NORTHERN VALUES, NEEDS AND INTERESTS

[1= Reference to Northern values, needs and interests; 0= No reference to Northern values, needs and interests]

Coding Instructions

This is a dichotomous variable identifying the presence of explicit or implicit references to content related to Northern culture, values, needs and interests. This category includes all messages which focus on preserving and defending Northern interests and what are said to be specific needs of the North, such as autonomy or federalism. Similarly, all messages referring to what are posited by the speaker as northern values, such as a willingness to work hard, efficiency, a readiness to abide by the rules, were coded under this variable.

Examples

Lega Nord’s FB page (March 2016): Simona Bordonali: Per garantire la sicurezza ai lombardi dobbiamo trattenere le nostre tasse in Lombardia. [translation: Simona Bordonali: To guarantee the safety of Lombards, we must keep our taxes in Lombardy] Salvini’s FB page (January 2014): Se non si paga il PIZZO allo Stato ladro un litro di benzina (a Livigno) si paga 1 euro. L’Indipendenza conviene! [translation: If you don’t pay a BRIBE to the thieving state you’ll pay 1 euro for a litre of petrol (in Livigno). Independence is worthwhile!]

Table 3a. reports the Krippendorff Alfa for each variable reported in the article.

Intercoder reliability test
Name of the variable	% Agreement	Krippendorff's Alpha (nominal)
Europe	98.3%	0.88
Economic Crisis	97.4%	0.828
Immigration	97.6%	0.932
Terrorism	96.9%	0.727
Security	97.8%	0.928
National values, needs, interests	97.9%	0.866
Northern values, needs, interests	97.8%	0.712

Vampa, D. 2018. “Il centrodestra a guida leghista.” In Il vicolo cieco. Le elezioni politiche del 2018, edited by M. Valbruzzi and R. Vignati, 57–77. Bologna: Il Mulino.

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