Radical-Right Surge in a Deinstitutionalised Party System: The 2022 Italian General Election

Figures & data

Table 1. Italian cabinets and governmental majorities, 2008–2022.

Cabinet	(Major) supporting parties	In office, since – to	Duration, days (of which after resignation)
Berlusconi IV	PDL, Lega	8 May 2008–16 November 2011	1287 (4)
Monti	PDL, PD, UDC, FLI	16 November 2011–28 April 2013	529 (128)
Letta	PD, PDL*, SC, UDC	28 April 2013–22 February 2014	300 (8)
Renzi	PD, UDC, NCD, SC	22 February 2014–12 December 2016	1024 (5)
Gentiloni	PD, AP	12 December 2016–1 June 2018	536 (69)
Conte I	M5S, Lega	1 June 2018–5 September 2019	461 (16)
Conte II	M5S, PD, LEU, IV**	5 September 2019–13 February 2021	527 (18)
Draghi	M5S, Lega, PD, FI, IV, MDP, +EU	13 February 2021–22 October 2022	616 (93)
Meloni	FDI, Lega, FI	22 October 2022 – still in office

Note: Acronyms not presented elsewhere are as follows. UDC is Unione di Centro – Union of the Centre, a centrist, Christian-democratic party. FLI is Futuro e Libertà per l’Italia – Future and Freedom for Italy: a split from the PDL, led by former AN leader Gianfranco Fini. NCD is Nuovo Centrodestra – New Centre-Right: a split from the PDL, led by its political secretary and then Minister of the Interior, Angelino Alfano. SC is Scelta Civica – Civic Choice: a centrist party founded in 2013 by then Prime Minister Monti. AP is Alleanza Popolare – Popular Alliance, a merger of UDC and NCD. MDP is Articolo 1 - Movimento Democratico e Progressista – Article 1 – Democratic and Progressive Movement: a 2017 left-wing split from the PD, part of the LEU electoral list alongside SI in 2018.

*PDL until November 2013; ** IV since its foundation on 18 September 2019.

Source: Authors’ own elaboration.

Table 2. Priorities and preferences of Italian voters in 2022 for selected policy issues.

Goal	Support	Priority
Ensure affordable energy and gas prices for citizens and businesses		92
Implement the PNRR reforms, in order not to lose the EU funds		80
Abolish the basic citizenship income	61	76
Reduce pension age	79	76
Reduce immigration inflows	68	73
Stop sending weapons to Ukraine	59	72

Note: Priority figures indicate the percentage of respondents assigning to that goal a high priority; support figures indicate the percentage of respondents favouring that positional goal over its rival one (for valence issues unanimous support is assumed, hence it was not asked).

Source: ICCP Italy 2022. The ICCP Italy 2022 study is a pre-electoral Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) survey investigation designed by the CISE (Italian Centre for Electoral Studies) and administered by Demetra srl as part of the Issue Competition Comparative Project (ICCP) (De Sio et al. 2019). A representative sample of Italian voters (N = 861, drawn with quota sampling from an online panel including tens of thousands of individuals) was interviewed from 30 August to 5 September 2022, immediately before the blackout for polls imposed by the Italian legislation. The sample reproduces population quotas for gender, age, level of education and geographical area of residence. All analyses reported in this article are weighted for these socio-demographic indicators and voting behaviour.

Figure 1. Turnout in Italian general elections since 1948.

Note: Percentages refer to the whole set of registered voters between 1979 and 2001 and only to registered voters living in Italy until 1976 and since 2001. For 2001, we report both percentages: 85.2 is relative to Italian residents only, 81.4 is relative to the whole set of registered voters (thus both those living in Italy and abroad). This is done to show the negative effect on turnout due to the inclusion of the latter constituency in the period 1979-2001. Source: Authors elaboration based on Ministry of the Interior data.

Table 3. Results of 2022 Italian general election (Chamber of Deputies and Senate).

	Chamber of Deputies						Senate
	Votes		Seats				Votes		Seats
Lists and coalitions	No.	%	PR	FPTP	Abroad	Total	No.	%	PR	FPTP	Abroad	Total
Fratelli d’Italia (FDI)	7,302,517	25.9	69	49	-	118	7,167,136	25.5	34	32	-	66
Lega	2,464,005	8.8	23	42	-	65	2,439,200	8.7	13	14	-	27
Forza Italia (FI)	2,278,217	8.1	22	23	-	45	2,279,802	8.1	9	9	-	18
Noi Moderati (NM)	255,505	0.9	0	7	-	7	243,409	0.9	0	1	-	1
Lega-FI-FDI^a	-	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-	-	0	0
Lega-FI-NM-FDI^b	16,016	0.1	-	0	-	0	155,524	0.5	-	3	-	3
Total Centre-Right	12,316,260	43.8	114	121	2	237	12,285,071	43.7	56	59	0	115
Partito Democratico (PD)	5,356,180	19.0	57	8	4	69	5,236,344	18.6	31	4	3	38
Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana (EV-SI)^c	1,018,669	3.6	11	1	0	12	989,890	3.5	3	1	-	4
+Europa	793,961	2.8	0	2	0	2	808,676	2.9	0	0	-	0
Impegno Civico (IC)	169,165	0.6	0	1	0	1	153,964	0.5	0	0	0	0
Vallée d’Aoste-Autonomie Progrès Fédéralisme^d	20,763	0.1	-	1	-	1	18,282	0.1	-	0	-	0
CAMPOBASE±Europa – EV-SI – PD–AZ-IV^e	-	-	-	-	-	-	100,602	0.4	-	1	-	1
PD±Europa – EV-SI^f	-	-	-	-	-	-	21,894	0.1	-	1	-	1
Total Centre-Left	7,358,738	26.1	68	13	4	85	7,329,652	26.1	34	7	3	44
Valle d’Aosta Aperta^g	5,841	0.0	-	0	-	0	5,448	0.0	-	0	-	0
Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S)	4,333,972	15.4	41	10	1	52	4,314,249	15.3	23	5	0	28
Total M5S	4,339,813	15.4	41	10	1	52	4,319,697	15.3	23	5	0	28
Azione-Italia Viva (AZ-IV)	2,186,747	7.8	21	0	0	21	2,138,092	7.6	9	0	0	9
Others	1,940,073	6.9	1	3	1	5	2,039,111	7.3	0	3	1	4
TOTAL	28,141,631	100	245	147	8	400	28,111,623	100	122	74	4	200

Notes: ^aJoint list among Lega, FI and FDI competing only in the ‘abroad’ constituency. ^bJoint list among Lega, FI, NM and FDI in the Aosta Valley and in the six senatorial SMDs of Trentino South Tyrol. ^cIt includes votes got in two South Tyrolean senatorial SMDs where it was not allied with the PD. ^dJoint list among PD, AZ-IV and ethno-regionalist parties in the Aosta Valley. ^eJoint list among PD, +Europa, EV-SI, AZ-IV and a local party in three senatorial SMDs of Trentino. ^fJoint list among PD, +Europa and EV-SI in one senatorial SMD of South Tyrol. ^gJoint list among M5S, SI and progressive-environmentalist parties in the Aosta Valley.

Source: Authors elaboration based on Ministry of the Interior data.

Figure 2. Votes for main Italian parties in 2018 and 2022 in absolute values and percentages on valid votes (in parentheses), Chamber of Deputies.

Source: Authors elaboration based on Ministry of the Interior data.

Figure 3. Most voted coalition/party in the Italian single-member districts (2022 and 2018 compared).

Note: Results for the 2018 election were aggregated according to the new, 2022 districts. Source: Authors elaboration based on Ministry of the Interior data.

Table 4. Italian parties’ vote share by geopolitical area and demographic size of municipality, Chamber of deputies 2022.

		CENTRE-RIGHT			CENTRE-LEFT			THIRD POLES
Zone	Municipal size	FDI	LEGA	FI	PD	EV-SI	+EU	AZ-IV	M5S
Italy	0–5,000	29.3	11.7	9.5	16.4	2.8	2.3	6.4	12
	5,001–15,000	28.2	10.7	8.6	17.7	3.1	2.5	7.2	13.5
	15,001–50,000	25.8	8.5	8.6	18.5	3.4	2.7	7.5	17
	50,001–100,000	23.7	7	8.3	19.2	3.8	2.8	7.7	19.8
	>100,000	21.2	6	6.3	23	5	3.6	9.6	16.7
	Rome	28.2	4.3	4.5	23.2	4.8	3.8	10.7	14.1
	Total	26	8.8	8.1	19.1	3.6	2.8	7.8	15.4
North	0–5,000	32.1	15.1	8.2	15.3	3.1	2.8	7.3	6.5
	5,001–15,000	31.2	14.4	7.8	16.5	3.2	3.1	8.3	7.1
	15,001–50,000	28	12.1	7.4	19.2	3.8	3.5	9.3	8.7
	50,001–100,000	26.3	10.6	6.9	21.3	4.1	3.9	10.6	9
	>100,000	22.2	7.7	5.7	24.5	5.8	4.7	12.1	9.3
	Total	28.6	12.5	7.3	18.7	3.9	3.5	9.2	7.9
Red belt	0–5,000	31.9	9.1	7.7	21.4	2.9	2.1	6.9	10.4
	5,001–15,000	27.7	8.3	6.5	25.1	3.6	2.6	7.9	10.9
	15,001–50,000	26.7	7.3	6	25.4	4.1	2.7	8.4	11.6
	50,001–100,000	25.5	6.6	5.4	26	4.8	3.2	9.2	11.4
	>100,000	22.8	5.7	4.9	28.8	5.6	3.5	10.2	10.7
	Total	26.4	7.3	6	25.8	4.3	2.9	8.7	11.1
Rome	Total	28.2	4.3	4.5	23.2	4.8	3.8	10.7	14.1
South	0–5,000	23.9	7.4	12.2	16.6	2.4	1.5	4.8	21.4
	5,001–15,000	23.9	6.5	11.3	14.8	2.5	1.7	5.1	24.9
	15,001–50,000	23.2	5.8	11	14.3	2.7	2	5.3	27.5
	50,001–100,000	21.6	5.5	10.3	15.3	3.2	2.1	5.7	28.5
	>100,000	18.5	3.9	8.2	16.2	3.5	2.2	5.8	31.8
	Total	22.5	5.9	10.7	15.3	2.8	1.9	5.3	26.8

Note: Aosta Valley excluded from the analysis.

Source: Authors elaboration based on ISTAT and Ministry of Interior data.

Table 5. Vote for main Italian parties in the 2022 general election, by sociodemographic characteristics (percentages).

	FDI	Lega	FI	PD	EV-SI	M5S	AZ-IV	Others	Total	N
Total	26.0	8.8	8.1	19.0	3.6	15.4	7.8	11.2	100	651
Gender
Male	26.9	7.4	8.2	18.9	3.2	16.8	9.0	9.6	100	328
Female	25.0	10.2	8.0	19.2	4.0	14.1	6.7	12.8	100	323
Age class
18-29	17.3	6.2	12.0	28.4	1.5	17.1	9.5	8.0	100	83
30-44	26.4	10.8	8.1	13.9	6.9	17.8	9.1	7.0	100	127
45-54	31.9	7.7	12.7	15.3	0.6	23.4	1.0	7.5	100	114
55-64	29.3	9.0	7.4	14.1	5.7	14.5	6.5	13.5	100	121
65+	23.9	9.2	4.4	23.4	2.9	9.4	11.0	15.9	100	205
Educational level
Lower secondary education or less	31.3	11.2	7.5	17.7	3.1	18.8	4.6	5.8	100	277
Upper or post-secondary non-tertiary education	23.3	7.2	9.1	19.4	2.9	13.2	9.4	15.6	100	261
Tertiary education	19.2	6.8	6.6	21.2	6.6	12.6	12.4	14.7	100	111
Church attendance
Once a week or more	26.4	8.4	7.2	23.2	0.9	10.8	10.9	12.3	100	114
Once a month	13.6	3.2	23.5	18.1	0.0	12.4	7.5	21.7	100	47
Once or a few times a year	28.3	10.7	9.9	16.6	2.0	15.7	7.8	9.0	100	279
Never	25.4	7.8	2.9	20.2	8.0	18.2	6.3	11.2	100	212

Note: The standard deviation of the voting intentions variable is 3.6. For each party by each sociodemographic characteristic, vote percentages that are one standard deviation (or more) distant from the average vote percentage are presented in bold.

Source: ICCP Italy 2022 (see notes to Table 2 for details).

Table 6. Vote shifts between 2018 and 2022 in Italy: destination in 2022 of the 2018 voters of the different parties, loyal voters (confirming in 2022 their 2018 vote choice) in bold (percentages).

2022 vote	2018 vote									Total
	M5S		PD	Minor PD allies	FI (and NCI)	Lega	FDI	Other parties	No valid vote
M5S		34	4	0	1	1	2	4	2	9.4
EV-SI		1	2	20	0	0	0	17	1	2.2
PD		6	54	8	0	1	0	5	7	11.5
Minor PD allies		1	2	24	0	0	1	4	1	2.1
AZ-IV		4	13	9	10	1	0	0	3	4.8
NM		1	0	2	2	0	4	0	0	0.6
FI		1	1	3	28	5	4	0	2	4.8
Lega		2	2	0	1	34	1	0	1	5.6
FDI		15	4	0	33	35	68	0	5	15.6
Other parties		6	5	0	1	3	12	14	2	4.4
No valid vote		30	12	33	25	21	9	57	76	39.4
Total		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
N		198	113	18	95	108	27	52	229	842

Source: ICCP Italy 2022 (see notes to Table 2 for details).

Table 7. Vote shifts between 2018 and 2022 in Italy: sources from 2018 electorates of the 2022 votes to different parties (percentages).

2022 vote	2018 vote								Total	N
	M5S	PD	Minor PD allies	FI (and NCI)	Lega	FDI	Other parties	No valid vote
M5S	84	6	0	1	1	1	2	5	100	79
EV-SI	10	12	19	0	0	0	47	13	100	19
PD	13	64	2	0	1	0	3	17	100	96
Minor PD allies	16	17	32	0	3	2	14	15	100	14
AZ-IV	19	37	4	22	1	0	0	17	100	41
NM	21	0	8	35	0	20	0	16	100	5
FI	4	4	1	64	13	2	0	11	100	41
Lega	9	4	0	2	78	1	0	6	100	47
FDI	22	4	0	24	28	14	0	8	100	131
Other parties	31	15	0	3	7	9	20	14	100	37
No valid vote	18	4	2	7	7	1	9	52	100	332
Total	23.5	13.5	2.2	11.3	12.8	3.2	6.2	27.2	100	842

Source: ICCP Italy 2022 (see notes to Table 2 for details).

Figure 4. Evolution of electoral volatility in Italy, Chamber of Deputies (1948–2022).

Source: Authors’ elaboration on data taken from Emanuele (2015).

Figure 5. Mean values of total volatility for most volatile sequences of three consecutive elections in Western European countries between 1946 and 2022.

Note: Data refers to 20 Western European countries for a total of 407 electoral cycles considered (Lower House). Source: Authors’ elaboration on data taken from Emanuele (2015).

De Sio, L., Emanuele, V., Maggini, N., Paparo, A., Angelucci, D. & D’Alimonte, R. (2019) Issue Competition Comparative Project (ICCP), GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7499 Data file Version 1.0.0.

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Emanuele, V. (2015) Dataset of Electoral Volatility and Its Internal Components in Western Europe (1945-2015), Italian Centre for Electoral Studies, Rome.

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