Perceptions of populist radical right mainstreaming as a threat to democracy: evidence from Italian voters

Figures & data

Table 1. Ideological profiles of the main parties in the 2022 Italian general elections.

Populist radical right parties	Other populist parties	Non-populist parties
Brothers of Italy (FdI) League	Forza Italia (FI) (centre-right populism) Five Star Movement (M5S) (valence populism)	Action and Italy Alive (A-IV) (centrist) Democratic Party (PD) (centre-left) Greens and Left Alliance (AVS) (radical left)

Table 2. Descriptives.

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
League as a threat to democracy	981	4.925	3.689	0	10
FdI as a threat to democracy	982	4.747	3.651	0	10
Economic nativism	1009	3.084	1.139	1	5
Welfare chauvinism	1009	3.187	1.253	1	5
Symbolic nativism	1009	2.799	1.285	1	5
Authoritarianism: Law and order	1009	4.019	1.02	1	5
Authoritarianism: Traditional family	1009	2.774	1.471	1	5
Populism (1–5 scale)	1009	3.017	1.147	1	5
Ideological self-placement	1009	5.137	2.787	0	10
A-IV – party evaluation	961	3.189	2.849	0	10
AVS – party evaluation	927	3.731	2.928	0	10
FdI – party evaluation	991	4.113	3.558	0	10
FI- party evaluation	994	3.329	3.022	0	10
League – party evaluation	995	3.155	3.263	0	10
M5S – party evaluation	995	3.756	3.219	0	10
PD – party evaluation	993	3.537	3.04	0	10
Age	1009	47.227	14.187	18	92
Gender	1008	.505	.5	0	1
Residency dimension	1008	2.809	1.406	1	5
Income	1009	2.765	1.056	1	5
Education	1009	.344	.475	0	1

Table 3. Ideological self-placements and individual attitudes on the PRR’s core values, according to the party voted for in the 2022 Italian General Elections (avg).

	A-IV	AVS	FdI	FI	M5S	League	PD
Ideological self-placement	5	1.7	7.9	7.8	3.9	7.9	2.5
Economic nativism	2.7	2.2	3.7	3.3	3	3.6	2.3
Welfare chauvinism	2.8	2.1	3.9	3.4	3.1	3.6	2.4
Symbolic nativism	2.4	1.5	3.5	3.2	2.6	3.5	2.1
Authoritarianism: Law and order	4	3.3	4.5	4	4.2	4.1	3.6
Authoritarianism: Traditional family	2.5	1.4	3.9	3.2	2.6	3.4	1.9
Populism (1–5 scale)	2.5	2.7	3.2	3.3	3.2	3.3	2.5
N	55	38	218	45	168	43	160

Table 4. Matrix of correlations of the individual evaluation of the Italian political parties.

Variables	Evaluation of A-IV	Evaluation of the AVS	Evaluation of FdI	Evaluation of FI	Evaluation of the League	Evaluation of the M5S	Evaluation of the PD
Evaluation of A-IV	1.000
Evaluation of the AVS	0.402	1.000
Evaluation of FdI	0.262	−0.229	1.000
Evaluation of FI	0.406	−0.001	0.763	1.000
Evaluation of the League	0.257	−0.149	0.832	0.766	1.000
Evaluation of the M5S	0.116	0.427	−0.190	−0.011	−0.098	1.000
Evaluation of the PD	0.480	0.742	−0.219	0.021	−0.141	0.419	1.000

Table 5. OLS model testing the individual perceptions of the League as a threat to democracy (0–10 scale).

	Model 1a – PRR policy issues			Model 2a – Party evaluation			Model 3a – PRR policy issues & party evaluation
	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig
Economic nativism (1–5 scale)	−0.44	0.12	***				−0.25	0.12	**
Welfare chauvinism (1–5 scale)	−0.22	0.11	*				−0.16	0.12
Symbolic nativism (1–5 scale)	−0.08	0.11					−0.07	0.12
Authoritarianism: Law and order (1–5 scale)	0.11	0.12					0.15	0.12
Authoritarianism: Traditional family (1–5 scale)	−0.18	0.09	**				−0.15	0.09
Populism (1–5 scale)	0.16	0.1					0.05	0.11
Ideological self-placement (0=left; 10=right)	−0.34	0.05	***				−0.1	0.07
A-IV – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.08	0.05		−0.08	0.05
AVS – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.32	0.06	***	0.24	0.06	***
FdI – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.17	0.06	***	−0.11	0.07	*
FI – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.1	0.07		−0.1	0.07
League – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.02	0.07		0.05	0.07
M5S – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.1	0.04	**	0.11	0.04	***
PD – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.09	0.06		0.06	0.06
Age	−0.01	0.01		0.01	0.01	*	0.01	0.01
Gender (ref. cat. Women)	−0.32	0.22		−0.18	0.22		−0.18	0.23
Residency dimension	0.07	0.08		0.03	0.08		0.04	0.08
Income	−0.29	0.11	***	−0.32	0.11	***	−0.32	0.11	***
Education (ref. high school or lower degree)	0	.		0	.		0	.
University degree	0.32	0.24		0.47	0.25	*	0.41	0.25	*
Constant	9.46	0.71	***	4.41	0.58	***	6.13	0.91	***
R-squared	0.19			0.23			0.25
Number of obs	979			898			898

***p < .01, **p < .05, *p < .1.

Table 6. OLS model testing the individual perceptions of FdI as a threat to democracy (0–10 scale).

	Model 1b – PRR policy issues			Model 2b – Party evaluation			Model 3b – PRR policy issues & party evaluation
	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig	Coef.	St.Err.	Sig
Economic nativism (1–5 scale)	−0.43	0.12	***				−0.16	0.12
Welfare chauvinism (1–5 scale)	−0.16	0.11					−0.10	0.11
Symbolic nativism (1–5 scale)	−0.04	0.11					−0.01	0.11
Authoritarianism: Law and order (1–5 scale)	−0.06	0.12					0.06	0.12
Authoritarianism: Traditional family (1–5 scale)	−0.19	0.09	**				−0.21	0.09	**
Populism (1–5 scale)	0.38	0.10	***				0.24	0.10	**
Ideological self-placement (0 = left; 10 = right)	−0.32	0.05	***				−0.06	0.07
A-IV – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.10	0.05	**	−0.10	0.05	**
AVS – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.36	0.06	***	0.30	0.06	***
FdI – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.21	0.06	***	−0.16	0.06	**
FI – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				−0.12	0.06	*	−0.12	0.06	*
League – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.13	0.06	**	0.16	0.07	**
M5S – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.12	0.04	***	0.12	0.04	***
PD – party evaluation (0–10 scale)				0.14	0.06	**	0.13	0.06	**
Age	−0.01	0.01		0.01	0.01		0.01	0.01
Gender (ref. cat. Women)	−0.25	0.22		−0.14	0.22		−0.09	0.22
Residency dimension	0.05	0.08		0.04	0.08		0.05	0.08
Income	−0.28	0.11	**	−0.34	0.11	***	−0.31	0.11	***
Education (ref. high school or lower degree)	0.00	.		0.00	.		0.00	.
University degree	0.16	0.24		0.31	0.24		0.31	0.24
Constant	9.14	0.72	***	3.93	0.56	***	4.58	0.88	***
R-squared	0.18			0.26			0.27
Number of obs	980			901			901

***p < .01, **p < .05, *p < .1.