Agriculture, trade, and climate change adaptation: a global CGE analysis for Morocco and Turkey

Figures & data

Table 1. Regional and sectoral aggregation in the GTAP model.

Regions	Sectors
Oceania	Paddy, rice
East Asia	Wheat
Southeast Asia	Coarse grains
South Asia	Vegetables, Fruits
Canada	Oilseeds
United States	Sugar crops
Rest of Latin America	Other crops
Brazil	Dairy, Livestock
OECD Europe	Extract
Rest of the Middle-East	Vegetable oil
Eastern Europe	Other processed food
Former-USSR	Textile, Apparel
Turkey	Manufactures
Rest of North Africa	Utilities, Construction
Morocco	Services
Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Author's Adaptation (GTAP Database Version 7).

Table 2. Definition of simulation scenarios.

Scenario	Description
BASE	Climate change only
AGWRLD	BASE + 100% tariff elimination on all agricultural commodities in all regions
AGEU	BASE + 100% tariff elimination on all agricultural commodities between OECD Europe & Eastern Europe and Morocco, and OECD Europe & Eastern Europe and Turkey
AGMENA	BASE + 100% tariff elimination on all agricultural commodities among all MENA regions, including Morocco and Turkey

Source: Authors’ construction.

Figure 1. Schematic of the analysis approach. Source: Authors’ construction.

Figure 2. Regional distribution of average yield impacts across crops and climate projections. Source: Authors’ adaptation from IFPRI (2010) and MNP (2006).

Table 3. Aggregate welfare impact and its decomposition by effect for the world region (2004 million USD).

Scenario	Allocative efficiency component (a)	Technical efficiency component (b)	Terms of trade component (c)	Investment- Savings component (d)	Equivalent Variation (EV) (e) = (a) + (b) + (c) + (d)
	Climate change only (1)
BASE	−4075.6	−27,699.2	−0.6	0.3	−31,775.1
	Trade liberalisation under climate change (2)
AGWRLD	22,334.5	−27,111.8	−16.2	−0.2	−4793.7
AGEU	−4076.5	−27,684.1	−1.6	0.2	−31,761.9
AGMENA	−4030.9	−27,709.6	−0.4	0.3	−31,740.6
	Net impact of trade liberalisation (3) = (2) − (1)
AGWRLD	26,410.1	587.4	−15.7	−0.5	26,981.4
AGEU	−0.9	15.1	−1.1	−0.1	13.1
AGMENA	44.7	−10.4	0.1	0	34.4

Source: Simulation results.

Figure 3. Gross domestic product (GDP) impacts for Morocco by scenario (in % change). Source: Simulation results.

Note: Results are presented in box plots using the ‘ggplot2’ package in R. The lower and upper borders of the box plot represent respectively the 25th and 75th percentiles of the distribution of yield projections. The upper (lower) whisker extends from the box plot upper (lower) border to the highest (lowest) value that is within 1.5*IQR of the border, where IQR stands for inter-quartile range defined as the distance between the 25th and 75th percentiles. The black lines inside the box plot refer to the median of the distribution. The red dots represent the average of the distribution. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are outliers and are plotted as blue squares. For a detailed discussion, refer to McGill, Tukey, and Larsen (1978).

Figure 4. Average per cent change in exports and imports price and quantity indices for Morocco. Source: Simulation results.

Note: The bars measure the mean of the distribution across climate projections, and the error bars represent the mean ± standard deviation of the distribution.

Table 4. Evolution of import sales disposal in Morocco by scenario, by agent type and by commodity group (in 2004 million USD and in % share).

		Import sales disposal
		Levels (in 2004 million USD)			Share across commodity type (in %)			Share across agent category (in %)
		Hhd	Gov	Firms	Hhd	Gov	Firms	Hhd	Gov	Firms
Baseline	Crops	1192	0.4	403	20%	0%	2%	75%	0%	25%
	Non-crops	4771	689	17,417	80%	100%	98%	21%	3%	76%
BASE	Crops	1427	0.4	498	23%	0%	3%	74%	0%	26%
	Non-crops	4761	687	17,328	77%	100%	97%	21%	3%	76%
AGWRLD	Crops	1746	0.6	734	28%	0%	4%	70%	0%	30%
	Non-crops	4568	656	17,378	72%	100%	96%	20%	3%	77%
AGEU	Crops	1674	0.5	648	26%	0%	4%	72%	0%	28%
	Non-crops	4660	671	17,347	74%	100%	96%	21%	3%	76%
AGMENA	Crops	1434	0.4	500	23%	0%	3%	74%	0%	26%
	Non-crops	4759	687	17,328	77%	100%	97%	21%	3%	76%

Source: Simulations results.

Table 5. Evolution of the share of domestic, export, and import markets in total production and total consumption in Morocco by scenario (in % change from the baseline).

		% change in the share in total output by market		% change in the share of output disposal by sector		% change in the share in total consumption by sector
		Domestic	Export	Domestic	Export	Domestic	Import
BASE	Crops	2.5%	28.7%	−3.2%	21.5%	−3.4%	13.7%
	Non-crops	−0.5%	−0.7%	0.0%	−0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
AGWRLD	Crops	−22.3%	22.5%	−6.9%	46.7%	−16.6%	67.0%
	Non-crops	−0.7%	6.5%	−1.2%	6.0%	0.1%	−0.4%
AGEU	Crops	−11.0%	45.5%	−7.6%	51.1%	−11.2%	45.2%
	Non-crops	−0.7%	2.7%	−0.5%	2.9%	0.0%	−0.1%
AGMENA	Crops	2.2%	29.4%	−3.3%	22.4%	−3.6%	14.4%
	Non-crops	−0.5%	−0.6%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Source: Simulation results.

Figure 5. Gross domestic product (GDP) impacts for Turkey by scenario (in % change). Source: Simulation results.

Figure 6. Average per cent change in export and import price and quantity indices for Turkey. Source: Simulation results.

Table 6. Evolution of import sales disposal in Turkey by scenario, by agent type and by commodity group (in 2004 $US million and in % share).

		Import sales disposal
		Levels (in 2004 million US$)			Share across commodity type (in %)			Share across agent category (in %)
		Hhd	Gov	Firms	Hhd	Gov	Firms	Hhd	Gov	Firms
Baseline	Crops	993	93	1481	4%	7%	2%	39%	4%	58%
	Non-crops	27,084	1245	69,942	96%	93%	98%	28%	1%	71%
BASE	Crops	1186	103	1847	4%	8%	3%	38%	3%	59%
	Non-crops	26,768	1231	69,681	96%	92%	97%	27%	1%	71%
AGWRLD	Crops	1808	179	2059	6%	13%	3%	45%	4%	51%
	Non-crops	26,734	1228	69,619	94%	87%	97%	27%	1%	71%
AGEU	Crops	1218	105	1877	4%	8%	3%	38%	3%	59%
	Non-crops	26,785	1232	69,671	96%	92%	97%	27%	1%	71%
AGMENA	Crops	1207	104	1862	4%	8%	3%	38%	3%	59%
	Non-crops	26,769	1231	69,681	96%	92%	97%	27%	1%	71%

Source: Simulation results.

Table 7. Evolution of the share of domestic, export, and import markets in total production and total consumption in Turkey by scenario (in % change from the baseline).

		% change in the share in total output by market		% change in the share of output disposal by sector		% change in the share in total consumption by sector
		Domestic	Export	Domestic	Export	Domestic	Import
BASE	Crops	9%	−8%	2%	−15%	−1%	11%
	Non-crops	−0.7%	0.3%	−0.2%	1%	0.0%	0.0%
AGWRLD	Crops	2%	23%	−2%	20%	−5%	48%
	Non-crops	−0.1%	−1%	−0.3%	1%	0.0%	0.0%
AGEU	Crops	9%	−1%	1%	−8%	−1%	13%
	Non-crops	−0.6%	0.0%	−0.2%	1%	0.0%	−0.01%
AGMENA	Crops	9%	−6%	1%	−12%	−1%	12%
	Non-crops	−0.6%	0.2%	−0.2%	1%	0.0%	0.0%

Source: Simulation results.

Figure A1. Distribution of climate change impacts on yield by 2050, by region and by crop (in % change). Source: Source: Authors’ adaptation from IFPRI (2010) and IMAGE (2010).

Table A1. Average of the allocative efficiency component by region and by scenario (in 2004 million USD).

	Climate change only (1)	Trade liberalisation under climate change (2)			Net impact of trade liberalisation (3) = (2) − (1)
	BASE	AGWRLD	AGEU	AGMENA	AGWRLD	AGEU	AGMENA
Oceania	106.2	121.4	105.7	106.3	15.2	−0.5	0.1
East Asia	415.4	21,271.5	422.3	421.5	20,856.1	6.9	6.1
South-East Asia	−78.3	110.4	−78.5	−78.1	188.7	−0.2	0.1
South Asia	−189.8	104.0	−188.0	−188.6	293.8	1.8	1.3
Canada	−111.7	−117.5	−109.1	−110.8	−5.8	2.5	0.8
United States	−548.5	−469.2	−537.1	−542.5	79.3	11.4	6.0
Rest of Latin America	−826.4	−1556.7	−813.8	−821.1	−730.4	12.6	5.3
Brazil	−306.8	−443.3	−304.3	−306.3	−136.5	2.5	0.5
OECD Europe	−1964.6	1576.9	−1995.2	−1953.7	3541.5	−30.6	10.9
Rest of the Middle-East	−173.5	213.8	−175.2	−171.5	387.3	−1.7	2.0
Eastern Europe	−365.4	135.1	−366.7	−364.2	500.5	−1.3	1.2
Former USSR	−121.3	42.7	−124.0	−120.3	164.0	−2.7	1.0
Turkey	−3.8	837.2	−15.4	0.6	841.0	−11.6	4.4
Rest of North Africa	10.8	104.1	10.0	15.2	93.3	−0.8	4.4
Morocco	77.6	318.6	85.4	78.1	241.0	7.8	0.5
Sub-Saharan Africa	4.5	85.5	7.5	4.7	81.1	3.0	0.2
Total	−4075.6	22,334.5	−4076.5	−4030.9	26,410.1	−0.9	44.7

Source: Simulation results.

Table A2. Average of the terms of trade component by region and by scenario (in 2004 million USD).

	Climate change only (1)	Trade liberalisation under climate change (2)			Net impact of trade liberalisation (3) = (2) − (1)
	BASE	AGWRLD	AGEU	AGMENA	AGWRLD	AGEU	AGMENA
Oceania	147.1	93.8	131.4	142.0	−53.3	−15.7	−5.1
East Asia	−794.5	−324.8	−768.2	−791.5	469.7	26.3	3.0
Southeast Asia	90.4	225.1	92.7	86.8	134.8	2.4	−3.6
South Asia	200.0	311.4	195.1	190.9	111.5	−4.8	−9.1
Canada	212.9	309.7	186.2	210.8	96.9	−26.7	−2.1
United States	1462.5	1406.6	1440.4	1446.9	−55.9	−22.1	−15.6
Rest of Latin America	1052.7	2812.6	1036.4	1045.6	1759.8	−16.3	−7.1
Brazil	795.9	1604.5	779.2	791.1	808.6	−16.6	−4.8
OECD Europe	−2321.3	−5324.6	−2088.5	−2327.7	−3003.3	232.8	−6.3
Rest of the Middle-East	−610.0	−642.4	−603.9	−559.2	−32.3	6.2	50.9
Eastern Europe	44.9	−139.3	62.0	43.7	−184.2	17.1	−1.2
Former USSR	−271.3	108.5	−281.9	−271.5	379.8	−10.6	−0.1
Turkey	207.2	75.6	240.9	210.8	−131.6	33.7	3.6
Rest of North Africa	−363.5	−357.9	−362.6	−355.2	5.6	0.9	8.2
Morocco	−32.8	−456.7	−240.6	−37.7	−423.9	−207.8	−4.9
Sub-Saharan Africa	179.3	281.5	179.6	173.7	102.1	0.3	−5.6
Total	−0.5	−16.2	−1.6	−0.4	−15.7	−1.1	0.1

Source: Simulation results.

Table A3. Average impact on quantities and prices for domestic output, exports and imports for Morocco by commodity and by scenario (in % change).

	Scenario ‘BASE’						Scenario ‘AGWRLD’
	qo^5	ps^6	qxw^7	pxw^8	qiw^9	piw^10	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw
Paddy rice	16.4	−7.5	195.2	−7.5	−32.4	5.8	−4.6	−14.0	93.3	−14.0	27.7	2.3
Wheat	−10.9	15.9	3.2	15.9	30.7	7.0	−49.1	6.8	13.9	6.8	203.8	9.8
Coarse grains	−4.6	16.6	−9.4	16.6	5.5	7.7	−18.4	9.6	−5.5	9.6	86.9	9.2
Vegetables, fruits, and nuts	10.6	−1.0	34.6	−1.0	−8.7	4.4	9.0	−6.0	31.9	−6.0	50.2	4.1
Oilseeds	4.1	1.3	43.0	1.3	−5.4	3.7	3.3	−4.0	61.5	−4.0	4.1	3.6
Sugar cane, Suger beet	−2.1	21.1	−32.8	21.1	52.8	4.3	3.4	15.3	−16.1	15.3	96.1	5.3
Other crops nes	−0.4	3.4	12.7	3.4	0.9	2.6	−1.2	−1.8	55.7	−1.8	20.4	1.5
Meat, livestock, raw milk	−1.3	1.0	−1.2	1.0	−0.3	0.8	1.9	−2.9	24.3	−2.9	−8.2	0.4
Forest, fish & minerals	0.0	−0.2	0.3	−0.2	−0.4	−0.1	2.6	−0.3	2.3	−0.3	2.4	−0.1
Vegetable oils and fats	−2.8	2.0	−5.9	2.0	−1.5	2.0	13.1	−2.7	24.6	−2.7	−8.4	2.1
Other processed food	−3.4	3.2	−9.0	3.2	3.1	0.6	2.7	−2.6	10.5	−2.6	−4.8	0.1
Textile and apparel	−1.5	0.2	−1.5	0.2	−0.8	0.0	7.9	−1.5	9.7	−1.5	2.1	−0.2
Manufactures	−0.2	−0.1	0.5	−0.1	−0.5	−0.1	3.7	−1.3	8.6	−1.3	−1.8	−0.1
Utilities and Construction	−0.4	−0.2	0.5	−0.2	−0.7	−0.1	−0.7	−1.6	7.2	−1.6	−2.3	−0.2
Transportation and Services	−0.4	−0.1	0.1	−0.1	−0.5	−0.1	0.8	−1.8	6.3	−1.8	−3.3	−0.1

Table A3. Continued.

	Scenario ‘AGEU’						Scenario ‘AGMENA’
	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw
Paddy rice	0.4	−11.1	288.2	−11.1	18.2	7.0	16.5	−7.6	195.0	−7.6	−32.5	5.8
Wheat	−35.4	10.8	42.8	10.8	164.6	10.5	−10.9	15.9	3.6	15.9	30.6	7.0
Coarse grains	−3.8	14.0	−2.5	14.0	12.3	7.8	−4.6	16.5	−9.3	16.5	5.5	7.7
Vegetables, fruits, and nuts	15.3	−2.9	52.2	−2.9	33.4	5.2	10.1	−1.1	35.2	−1.1	16.1	4.7
Oilseeds	6.0	−0.8	64.3	−0.8	−3.7	3.7	4.1	1.2	45.3	1.2	−5.2	3.7
Sugar cane, Suger beet	0.3	18.6	−25.8	18.6	102.0	5.6	−2.0	21.0	−32.9	21.0	52.7	4.2
Other crops nes	2.3	1.3	61.0	1.3	6.1	2.9	−0.4	3.3	16.5	3.3	2.3	2.7
Meat, livestock, raw milk	0.1	−0.8	11.6	−0.8	−5.1	0.8	−1.2	0.9	−1.0	0.9	−0.4	0.8
Forest, fish & minerals	1.2	−0.3	1.3	−0.3	0.8	−0.1	0.0	−0.2	0.3	−0.2	−0.3	−0.1
Vegetable oils and fats	2.2	0.4	3.9	0.4	−3.9	2.0	−2.6	1.9	−5.5	1.9	−1.6	2.0
Other processed food	−0.6	0.5	0.2	0.5	−1.2	0.6	−3.3	3.1	−8.8	3.1	3.0	0.6
Textile and apparel	3.0	−0.6	3.9	−0.6	0.5	0.0	−1.4	0.2	−1.4	0.2	−0.7	0.0
Manufactures	1.5	−0.7	4.2	−0.7	−1.2	−0.1	−0.2	−0.1	0.6	−0.1	−0.5	−0.1
Utilities and Construction	−0.6	−0.8	3.7	−0.8	−1.6	−0.1	−0.4	−0.2	0.6	−0.2	−0.7	−0.1
Transportation and Services	0.0	−0.9	2.9	−0.9	−2.0	−0.1	−0.4	−0.1	0.2	−0.1	−0.5	−0.1

Source: Simulation results.

Table A4. Average impact on quantities and prices for domestic output, exports and imports for Turkey by commodity and by scenario (in % change).

	Scenario ‘BASE’						Scenario ‘AGWRLD’
	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw
Paddy rice	−11.6	−1.3	13.6	−1.3	13.2	−6.4	−37.8	−3.4	1945.4	−3.4	83.5	0.4
Wheat	−3.9	11.0	6.6	11.0	39.5	2.3	−6.4	10.0	34.2	10.0	101.7	4.4
Coarse grains	−3.4	19.6	−11.6	19.6	4.8	6.8	−4.0	18.8	35.3	18.8	21.2	7.8
Vegetables, fruits, and nuts	−3.5	12.6	−13.0	12.6	10.1	5.8	−4.9	11.5	−17.1	11.5	107.5	6.2
Oilseeds	−29.1	44.9	−66.8	44.9	36.8	1.2	−26.7	43.3	−13.6	43.3	42.7	1.7
Sugar cane, Suger beet	−3.1	44.5	−74.9	44.5	106.6	10.4	−2.5	43.5	−74.6	43.5	207.9	11.5
Other crops nes	−10.6	10.6	−29.0	10.6	10.8	3.2	−16.1	8.5	110.2	8.5	82.0	3.1
Meat, livestock, raw milk	−2.7	5.0	−23.4	5.0	9.5	0.9	−2.4	4.0	−22.0	4.0	8.9	0.4
Forest, fish & minerals	0.1	−0.2	0.9	−0.2	0.0	−0.1	0.3	−0.2	1.1	−0.2	0.1	−0.1
Vegetable oils and fats	−2.5	1.9	−3.9	1.9	0.4	1.1	−1.9	1.4	−3.1	1.4	−0.1	0.8
Other processed food	−2.7	3.4	−9.2	3.4	3.6	0.6	−1.9	1.8	−5.7	1.8	1.7	0.3
Textile and apparel	0.8	−0.2	1.2	−0.2	−0.3	0.0	0.6	−0.4	0.9	−0.4	−0.3	−0.2
Manufactures	0.4	−0.3	1.4	−0.3	−0.7	−0.1	0.6	−0.4	1.9	−0.4	−0.8	−0.1
Utilities and Construction	−0.5	−0.3	1.0	−0.3	−1.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.5	1.6	−0.5	−1.6	−0.1
Transportation and Services	−0.6	−0.4	1.0	−0.4	−1.5	−0.1	−0.4	−0.5	1.6	−0.5	−1.6	−0.1

Table A4. Continued.

	Scenario ‘AGEU’						Scenario ‘AGMENA’
	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw	qo	ps	qxw	pxw	qiw	piw
Paddy rice	103.9	3.8	28567.3	3.8	30.5	−6.4	−47.3	−3.4	38.3	−3.4	95.4	−7.7
Wheat	−4.1	11.2	134.8	11.2	52.4	2.9	−3.9	11.1	7.2	11.1	39.8	2.3
Coarse grains	−3.1	19.8	50.9	19.8	9.2	6.9	−3.5	19.6	−10.5	19.6	5.0	6.8
Vegetables, fruits, and nuts	−3.1	12.8	−7.7	12.8	42.9	5.7	−3.4	12.6	−10.3	12.6	41.3	6.7
Oilseeds	−29.7	44.8	−65.9	44.8	38.3	1.3	−29.0	44.9	−65.5	44.9	36.9	1.2
Sugar cane, Suger beet	−3.1	44.7	−75.1	44.7	107.9	10.3	−3.1	44.5	−75.1	44.5	106.8	10.4
Other crops nes	−11.1	10.7	−27.5	10.7	14.2	3.2	−10.6	10.6	−28.1	10.6	11.2	3.2
Meat, livestock, raw milk	−2.6	5.1	−23.9	5.1	9.8	0.9	−2.7	5.0	−23.4	5.0	9.5	0.9
Forest, fish & minerals	0.1	−0.2	0.9	−0.2	−0.1	−0.1	0.1	−0.2	0.9	−0.2	0.0	−0.1
Vegetable oils and fats	−2.4	1.9	−3.7	1.9	0.3	1.1	−2.5	1.9	−3.9	1.9	0.4	1.1
Other processed food	−2.7	3.4	−9.2	3.4	3.6	0.6	−2.7	3.4	−9.1	3.4	3.5	0.6
Textile and apparel	0.6	−0.2	1.0	−0.2	−0.4	0.0	0.8	−0.2	1.2	−0.2	−0.3	0.0
Manufactures	0.3	−0.3	1.3	−0.3	−0.7	−0.1	0.4	−0.3	1.4	−0.3	−0.7	−0.1
Utilities and Construction	−0.5	−0.3	0.9	−0.3	−1.3	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3	1.0	−0.3	−1.4	−0.1
Transportation and Services	−0.6	−0.3	0.8	−0.3	−1.5	−0.1	−0.6	−0.4	1.0	−0.4	−1.5	−0.1

Source: Simulation results.

Table A5. Average import tariff and taxation on firms’ domestic and import purchases by commodity (% ad valorem rate).

	Import tariffs (% ad valorem rate)			Taxes on firms’ imports purchases (% ad valorem rate)			Taxes on firms’ domestic purchases (% ad valorem rate)
	Turkey (1)	Morocco (2)	Ratio (3) = (2)/(1)	Turkey (1)	Morocco (2)	Ratio (3) = (2)/(1)	Turkey (1)	Morocco (2)	Ratio (3) = (2)/(1)
Rice, paddy	8.3	4.2	0.5	−0.9	0.00	0.00	−0.25	0.00	0.00
Wheat	8.8	31.4	3.6	−0.5	0.00	0.00	−0.16	0.00	0.00
Coarse grains	15.1	42.6	2.8	−0.5	0.00	0.00	−0.19	0.00	0.00
Vegetable & Fruits	36.7	38.6	1.1	−0.2	0.00	0.00	−0.25	0.00	0.00
Oilseeds	8.4	19.0	2.3	−1.3	0.00	0.00	−0.14	0.00	0.00
Sugar crops	1.3	2.0	1.6	0.0	0.00	n.a.	−0.78	0.00	0.00
Other crops	21.8	15.7	0.7	−1.5	0.00	0.00	−0.32	0.00	0.00
Meat, Livestock, Milk	16.8	37.5	2.2	−0.3	0.00	0.00	−1.66	0.00	0.00
Extraction	0.7	14.1	19.8	11.2	0.00	0.00	2.24	0.03	0.01
Vegetable oil	13.4	16.3	1.2	0.0	0.00	0.00	−0.01	0.00	0.00
Other proc food	27.7	37.2	1.3	−0.2	0.00	0.00	−0.01	0.00	0.00
Textile & Apparel	5.2	28.2	5.4	0.2	0.00	0.00	−1.60	0.00	0.00
Manufactures	2.3	17.2	7.6	11.7	0.00	0.00	39.63	0.00	0.00
Utilities & Construction	0.0	0.0	n.a.	8.5	0.00	0.00	14.11	0.00	0.00
Services	0.0	0.0	n.a.	0.0	0.02	n.a.	−1.60	0.00	0.00

Source: Authors’ adaptation (Data source: GTAP database version 7).

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