What accounts for changes in the chances of being NEET in the UK?

Figures & data

Figure 1. NEET definition flowchart

Figure 2. The NEET rate, 1975–2015

Figure 3. Active and inactive NEET rates by gender, 1975–2015 (a) Male (b) Female

Table 1. Factors associated with being NEET among men, 1985–2015

	1985–2015	1985–2015	1985–2015	1992–2015	1992–2015	1996–2015	1996–2015
Low qualifications	0.175	0.178	0.190	0.183	0.183	0.171	0.148
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
GCSEs	0.055	0.052	0.056	0.073	0.074	0.072	0.064
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)
Post 16	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Degree	−0.016	−0.022	−0.010	−0.006	−0.007	−0.002	0.005
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Has trade apprenticeship	−0.005	−0.008	0.000	0.011	0.009	−0.005	−0.004
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)
Age: 16–18	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Age: 19–21	0.097			0.109	0.109	0.110	0.101
	(0.002)			(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age: 22–25	0.091			0.099	0.099	0.108	0.094
	(0.002)			(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age: 26–29	0.067			0.075	0.076	0.090	0.074
	(0.002)			(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age		0.114
		(0.002)
Age^2		−0.002
		(0.000)
Has child						0.039	0.042
						(0.003)	(0.003)
Lives with parent						0.036	0.034
						(0.002)	(0.002)
Has child x Lives with parent						−0.033	−0.033
						(0.013)	(0.013)
Mental health							0.375
							(0.006)
Immobility							0.117
							(0.005)
Hearing, sight or speech							0.044
							(0.007)
Other health conditions							0.041
							(0.003)
Learning difficulties							0.053
							(0.006)
Constant	0.021	−1.211	−0.062	0.012	0.016	−0.034	−0.019
	(0.003)	(0.022)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)
Individual age controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	No
Year control	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Region controls	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
R^2	.0565	0.0634	0.0590	0.0541	0.0579	0.0571	0.1032
n	292,073	292,073	292,073	180,649	180,649	125,332	125,332

Notes: Dependent variable in each model is indicator for being NEET. Standard errors reported in parentheses. Effects statistically significant at the 1% level indicated in bold.

Table 2. Factors associated with being NEET among women, 1985–2015

	1985–2015	1985–2015	1985–2015	1992–2015	1992–2015	1996–2015	1996–2015
Low qualifications	0.322	0.328	0.341	0.327	0.327	0.234	0.221
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
GCSEs	0.128	0.127	0.131	0.151	0.152	0.100	0.094
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Post 16	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Degree	−0.087	−0.094	−0.082	−0.073	−0.072	0.016	0.022
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Has trade apprenticeship	0.065	0.063	0.068	0.075	0.075	0.029	0.029
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)
Age: 16–18	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Age: 19–21	0.177			0.192	0.191	0.116	0.108
	(0.002)			(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age: 22–25	0.244			0.246	0.245	0.089	0.077
	(0.002)			(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age: 26–29	0.281			0.263	0.263	0.035	0.022
	(0.002)			(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Age		0.170
		(0.002)
Age^2		−0.003
		(0.000)
Has child						0.356	0.358
						(0.003)	(0.003)
Lives with parent						−0.016	−0.018
						(0.003)	(0.003)
Has child x Lives with parent						−0.008	−0.005
						(0.007)	(0.007)
Mental health							0.236
							(0.006)
Immobility							0.064
							(0.005)
Hearing, sight or speech							0.045
							(0.009)
Other health conditions							0.037
							(0.003)
Learning difficulties							0.093
							(0.008)
Constant	−0.041	−1.995	−0.168	−0.086	−0.087	−0.018	−0.006
	(0.004)	(0.025)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)
Individual age controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	No
Year control	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Region controls	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
R^2	0.1476	0.1568	0.1535	0.1408	0.1423	0.2608	0.2784
n	308,740	308,740	308,740	193,663	193,663	134,765	134,765

Notes: Dependent variable in each model is indicator for being NEET. Standard errors reported in parentheses. Effects statistically significant at the 1% level indicated in bold.

Table 3. Comparison of aggregate composition and coefficient effects using linear and non-linear models

Male	Composition effects		Coefficient effects
	LPM	Logit	LPM	Logit
1985–1993	−1.0%	−1.0%	0.2%	0.1%
1993–2000	−1.8%	−2.0%	−4.3%	−4.2%
2000–2007	0.4%	0.5%	0.7%	0.7%
2007–2015	0.2%	0.1%	−0.5%	−0.4%
Female
1985–1993	−0.4%	−0.6%	−5.9%	−5.7%
1993–2000	−5.2%	−5.1%	−1.9%	−2.0%
2000–2007	−1.2%	−1.6%	0.9%	0.9%
2007–2015	−0.4%	−0.8%	−0.8%	−0.4%

Figure 4. Compositional effects on NEET rates by gender, 1985–2015 (a) Male (b) Female

Figure 5. Coefficient effects on NEET rates by gender, 1985–2015 (a) Male (b) Female

Table

Criteria description	LFS variable used (name in brackets) with years covered
In employment or unemployed (ILO definition)	2002–2015: Economic activity (ILODEFR) 1992–2000: Economic activity (INECACR) 1989–1991: Economic activity (ECAR) and looking for work in past four weeks (LOOK4WK) 1985: Economic activity (ECONACRG) and looking for work in past four weeks (LOOK4WK) 1981: Economically active in employment (V90), Economically active and seeking work (V81) and looking for work in last week (SEEKEMP) 1979: Economic position and status (VAR91) and looking for work in last week (VAR104) 1975: Economic position (VAR37)
In an apprenticeship	2012–2015: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPRCURR) 2008–2011: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPR8) 2004–2007: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPR4) 1992–2002: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPREN) 1985–1991: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPRENT) 1981: Recognised trade apprenticeship (APPRENT) 1979: Recognised trade apprenticeship (VAR63) 1975: Type of course organiser (VAR113)
In a government training scheme	2012–2015: On government scheme (SCHM12) 2008–2011: On government scheme (SCHM08) 2004–2007: On government scheme (SCHM04) 2000–2002: On government scheme (SCHM99) 1998: On government scheme (SCHM98A and SCHM98b) 1989–1996: On government scheme (SCHEME) 1985: On government scheme (SCHEMES) and On Youth Training Scheme (YTS) 1981: Usual economic activity (USITEMP) 1979: Usual economic activity (VAR32) 1975: No information, possibly included in full-time student from usual economic activity (VAR33)
On a training course	2002–2015: Still attending a course (ATTEND) 1989–2000: Current education received (CURED) 1985: Current education received (CUREDG) 1981: Qualifications (QUALONE, QUALTWO and QUALTH) 1979: Qualifications (VAR65, VAR66 and VAR67) and Type of education and training received (VAR150) 1975: Type of course organiser (VAR113)
Still in full time education	1992–2015: Age left full time education (EDAGE) 1985–1991: Age left full time education (FTEDAGE) 1981: Terminal education age (TEREDAG), Usual economic activity (USITEMP) and Economically inactive and student (V91) 1979: Terminal education age (VAR130), Usual economic activity (VAR32) and Economically inactive and student (V87) 1975: Age left full time education (VAR112), Usual economic activity (VAR33) and Economically inactive and student (VAR37)

Table A2: Comparison on linear probability model and logit model for NEET risk factors

	Male		Female
	Logit model	LPM	Logit model	LPM
Low qualifications	0.16	0.15	0.25	0.22
GCSEs	0.07	0.06	0.10	0.09
Post 16	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Degree	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
Has trade apprenticeship	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.03
Age: 16–18	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Age: 19–21	0.08	0.10	0.10	0.11
Age: 22–25	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.08
Age: 26–29	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.02
Lives with parent	0.03	0.03	−0.01	−0.02
Has child	0.04	0.04	0.35	0.36
Has child x Lives with parent	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	0.00
Mental health	0.32	0.38	0.24	0.24
Immobility	0.09	0.12	0.05	0.06
Hearing, sight or speech	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.04
Other health conditions	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04
Learning difficulties	0.02	0.05	0.09	0.09

Notes: these are the estimated marginal effects of each variable estimated at the mean values for all the other variables – for the LPM model this corresponds to the coefficient from the linear regression.

Table A3: Composition effects from Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition of probability of being NEET, 1985–2015

Male
		1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
		Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model
Low qualifications		−1.3%		−1.7%		0.1%	0.1%	−1.3%	−1.1%
GCSEs		0.1%		0.2%		−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Degree		−0.1%		0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Apprenticeship		0.1%		−0.2%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Age: 19–21		−0.2%		0.3%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Age: 22–25		0.0%		−0.3%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Age: 26–29		0.3%		−0.2%		−0.2%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Has child							0.0%		0.0%
Lives with parent							0.0%		0.1%
Has child x Lives with parent							0.0%		0.0%
Mental health – all							0.3%		1.0%
Mental health – main							0.3%		0.2%
North East				0.0%		0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
North West				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Yorkshire and Humberside				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East Midlands				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
West Midlands				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East of England				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
London				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South East				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South West				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Wales				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Scotland				0.0%		−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northern Ireland				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Constant		0.0%		0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Total		−1.0%		−1.8%		−0.3%	0.4%	−1.3%	0.2%
Female
		1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
		Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model
Low qualifications		−2.2%		−3.6%		−0.7%	−0.4%	−2.0%	−1.5%
GCSEs		0.1%		0.0%		−0.7%	−0.3%	−0.4%	−0.3%
Degree		−0.2%		−0.3%		−0.2%	0.1%	−0.6%	0.1%
Apprenticeship		0.1%		−0.2%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Age: 19–21		−0.4%		0.4%		−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.2%	−0.1%
Age: 22–25		0.5%		−1.2%		0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Age: 26–29		1.8%		−0.2%		−0.7%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Has child							−0.7%		−0.1%
Lives with parent							−0.1%		0.0%
Has child x Lives with parent							0.0%		0.0%
Mental health – all							0.2%		1.1%
Mental health – main							0.0%		0.3%
North East				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
North West				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	−0.1%
Yorkshire and Humberside				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East Midlands				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
West Midlands				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East of England				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
London				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South East				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South West				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Wales				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Scotland				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Northern Ireland				0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Constant		0.0%		0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Total		−0.4%		−5.2%		−2.2%	−1.2%	−2.4%	−0.4%

Table A4: Comparison of composition effects estimated by linear probability model and logit model/Fairlie (2005)

Male	1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM
Low qualifications	−0.9%	−1.3%	−0.9%	−1.7%	0.6%	0.1%	−0.7%	−1.1%
GCSEs	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	−0.2%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.0%
Degree	0.0%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Has trade apprenticeship	0.4%	0.1%	−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Age: 19–21	−0.2%	−0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.0%
Age: 22–25	−0.2%	0.0%	−0.6%	−0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.1%
Age: 26–29	0.2%	0.3%	−0.6%	−0.2%	−0.3%	−0.1%	−0.1%	0.0%
Lives with parent					0.5%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
Has child					−0.2%	0.0%	−0.4%	0.1%
Has child x Lives with parent					−0.1%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.0%
Mental health – any					0.3%	0.3%	1.1%	1.0%
Mental health – main					0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Female	1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM	Fairlie	LPM
Low qualifications	−1.9%	−2.2%	−0.9%	−3.6%	1.7%	−0.4%	0.0%	−1.5%
GCSEs	−0.3%	0.1%	−1.0%	0.0%	−0.7%	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.3%
Degree	0.0%	−0.2%	0.0%	−0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Has trade apprenticeship	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	−0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Age: 19–21	0.3%	−0.4%	2.5%	0.4%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.1%	−0.1%
Age: 22–25	−0.1%	0.5%	−1.8%	−1.2%	0.0%	0.1%	−0.2%	0.1%
Age: 26–29	0.6%	1.8%	−3.8%	−0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	−0.2%	0.0%
Lives with parent					−5.1%	−0.7%	−3.1%	−0.1%
Has child					−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.1%	0.0%
Has child x Lives with parent					0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Mental health – any					0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	1.1%
Mental health – main					0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%

Table A5: Coefficient effects from Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition of probability of being NEET, 1985–2015

Male
		1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
		Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model
Low qualifications		0.3%		−1.0%		−0.2%	−0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
GCSEs		1.1%		−0.4%		0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%
Degree		0.3%		−0.2%		0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Apprenticeship		1.2%		−0.2%		−0.3%	−0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Age: 19–21		0.7%		−1.2%		0.1%	0.2%	1.3%	1.2%
Age: 22–25		0.4%		−1.0%		0.2%	0.4%	1.5%	1.8%
Age: 26–29		0.6%		−0.6%		−0.4%	0.1%	1.8%	2.3%
Has child							0.0%		−0.1%
Lives with parent							1.6%		1.9%
Has child x Lives with parent							0.0%		0.0%
Mental health – all							0.2%		−0.3%
Mental health – main							−0.3%		−0.4%
North East		0.0%		0.0%		−0.2%	−0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
North West		0.0%		−0.2%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Yorkshire and Humberside		0.0%		0.1%		0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%
East Midlands		0.0%		0.0%		0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%
West Midlands		0.0%		−0.1%		0.3%	0.3%	−0.1%	−0.1%
East of England		0.0%		0.0%		0.5%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
London		0.0%		0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South East		0.0%		−0.1%		0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
South West		0.0%		−0.3%		0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Wales		0.0%		−0.2%		0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Scotland		0.0%		0.2%		−0.1%	−0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Northern Ireland		0.0%		0.1%		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Constant		−4.3%		0.9%		−0.1%	−3.0%	−5.9%	−9.0%
Total		0.2%		−4.3%		1.4%	0.7%	1.0%	−0.5%
Female
		1985–1993		1993–2000		2000–2007		2007–2015
		Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model	Simple model	Full model
Low qualifications		0.9%		−0.3%		−0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
GCSEs		1.7%		0.4%		0.6%	1.3%	−0.4%	0.0%
Degree		0.4%		−0.1%		−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.4%	−0.8%
Apprenticeship		0.3%		−0.2%		0.0%	0.0%	−0.2%	−0.1%
Age: 19–21		0.7%		−0.3%		0.0%	0.6%	0.7%	1.0%
Age: 22–25		−0.3%		0.3%		−0.7%	0.4%	1.7%	2.1%
Age: 26–29		−2.2%		−0.7%		−0.1%	1.0%	2.0%	2.9%
Has child							−1.1%		−1.2%
Lives with parent							0.4%		0.7%
Has child x Lives with parent							0.0%		0.0%
Mental health – all							−0.2%		−0.2%
Mental health – main							0.1%		−0.6%
North East		0.0%		0.2%		−0.4%	−0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
North West		0.0%		−0.1%		−0.5%	−0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Yorkshire and Humberside		0.0%		0.1%		−0.2%	−0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
East Midlands		0.0%		0.2%		−0.3%	−0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
West Midlands		0.0%		−0.1%		0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
East of England		0.0%		0.1%		−0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	−0.1%
London		0.0%		0.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South East		0.0%		0.3%		−0.3%	−0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
South West		0.0%		−0.1%		−0.2%	−0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Wales		0.0%		0.0%		−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Scotland		0.0%		−0.2%		−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.1%
Northern Ireland		0.0%		0.0%		−0.2%	−0.1%	0.3%	0.2%
Constant		−7.4%		−1.4%		5.6%	0.0%	−3.9%	−6.2%
Total		−5.9%		−1.9%		1.5%	0.9%	1.2%	−0.8%

Fairlie, Robert W. 2005. “An Extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition Technique to Logit and Probit Models.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 30 (4): 305–316. doi:10.3233/JEM-2005-0259.

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