Uncertainty and change in American youth occupational expectations

ABSTRACT

Grounded in Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), this study contributes to empirical efforts to understand factors affecting the career-development process of American youth by focusing on change in occupational expectations between age 16 and 26. The study is based on the secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002. The main result is that occupational expectations decrease over time, and the change is strongly affected by student educational expectations and actual attainment by age 26. The study findings indicate that higher educational attainment leads to stability in occupational expectations and higher prestige scores of the intended occupations. Females are more likely than males to have higher occupational expectations. Academic self-efficacy and self-regulatory behaviours during secondary education lead to higher occupational expectations, as does an understanding of employment barriers. Non-college-bound youth and postsecondary non-completers experience a higher drop in occupational expectations over time which could reveal unrealistic career plans.

KEYWORDS:

• Career development
• SCCT
• occupational expectations
• educational attainment
• uncertainty and change

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Maria Adamuti-Trache

Maria Adamuti-Trache is a Professor in Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Texas at Arlington. Her research focuses on life course transitions with particular interest in youth career aspirations and equity issues in post-secondary education and the labor market.

Yi Leaf Zhang

Yi Leaf Zhang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Texas at Arlington. Her research focuses on college access, student transition, and success, especially in the context of international education and community college.