Pressing the right button—labour market odds for youth with mental illness

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of youth with reduced work capacity aged 18–23, by mental health status (yes/no mental disorders (MD)).

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
	All	MD	No MD	No VRP	Placement	Training	FU
Health age 15–17:
Mental disorder	0.421	1.000	-	0.419	0.436	0.434	0.363
Internalising disorder	0.152	0.360	-	0.148	0.151	0.178	0.131
Externalising disorder	0.084	0.200	-	0.079	0.098	0.066	0.085
Developmental disorder	0.040	0.095	-	0.044	0.040	0.039	0.025
Other disorders	0.155	0.367	-	0.157	0.159	0.159	0.127
Background variables:
Age 18	0.281	0.374	0.213	0.291	0.296	0.265	0.217
Age 19	0.280	0.293	0.271	0.263	0.295	0.291	0.282
Age 20	0.206	0.176	0.229	0.205	0.203	0.203	0.229
Age 21	0.130	0.095	0.156	0.131	0.122	0.133	0.149
Age 22	0.076	0.049	0.096	0.079	0.066	0.079	0.094
Age 23	0.026	0.013	0.036	0.030	0.018	0.029	0.029
Female	0.485	0.546	0.441	0.522	0.435	0.545	0.428
Born in Norway	0.930	0.949	0.916	0.932	0.939	0.914	0.916
Born in W country	0.008	0.008	0.008	0.008	0.007	0.006	0.009
Born in NW country	0.062	0.043	0.076	0.059	0.054	0.080	0.076
Completed upper secondary school	0.149	0.088	0.193	0.166	0.107	0.202	0.144
Labour income, t-1	0.284	0.209	0.339	0.353	0.240	0.219	0.260
Taxable transfers, t-1	1.365	1.450	1.303	1.484	1.244	1.519	1.098
Tax-free transfers, t-1	0.353	0.367	0.342	0.278	0.419	0.320	0.463
Social assistance, t-1	0.145	0.163	0.132	0.119	0.165	0.125	0.207
Mother’s labour income	2.648	2.571	2.704	2.747	2.545	2.776	2.435
Father’s labour income	4.802	4.632	4.927	4.983	4.642	4.970	4.412
Mother’s transfer	0.747	0.865	0.661	0.736	0.770	0.734	0.728
Father’s transfer	0.435	0.486	0.398	0.429	0.443	0.421	0.452
Mothers’ education:
− Compulsory school	0.369	0.368	0.370	0.355	0.393	0.333	0.396
− Secondary school	0.386	0.392	0.381	0.373	0.403	0.369	0.401
− College education	0.217	0.220	0.215	0.245	0.181	0.264	0.167
− Missing education	0.028	0.020	0.034	0.028	0.023	0.034	0.035
Fathers’ education:
− Compulsory school	0.334	0.344	0.326	0.322	0.353	0.302	0.359
− Secondary school	0.445	0.438	0.450	0.437	0.459	0.430	0.451
− College education	0.169	0.165	0.171	0.189	0.139	0.207	0.132
− Missing education	0.053	0.053	0.053	0.052	0.049	0.060	0.058
Divorced parents, 16	0.374	0.414	0.345	0.367	0.371	0.380	0.401
Observations	20154	8489	11665	8078	6912	2984	2180

Own income and transfers are measured the previous year (t-1). Parental labour incomes and transfers are measured when the youth was aged 7–17. Labour income and transfers are measured in G, the unit used for calculation of social security payments, approx. 100000 euros in 2010.

Table 2. VRP related descriptives by mental health status in adolescence for youth ages 18–23.

	(1)		(2)
	No MD		MD
	mean	sd	mean	sd
Duration of work impairment (months)	21.487	13.872	23.719	14.178
Duration in Placement (months)	10.826	9.125	9.809	8.170
Duration in Training (months)	10.063	8.408	10.520	8.378
Duration in FU (months)	8.931	8.729	9.725	9.309
No VRP	0.402	0.490	0.399	0.490
Placement	0.334	0.472	0.355	0.479
Training	0.145	0.352	0.153	0.360
FU	0.119	0.324	0.093	0.291
Transition to employment	0.138	0.345	0.089	0.285
Transition to education	0.076	0.265	0.071	0.257
Censored due to transition to new VRP	0.301	0.459	0.304	0.460
Censored due to time	0.066	0.248	0.081	0.273
Observations	11665		8489

Figure 1. Survival curves by VRP status and mental health in adolescence for youths aged 18–23 years in the period 2010–2014.

Figure 2. Monthly transition rates into VRPs by mental health in adolescence for youth aged 18–23 years in the period of 2010–2014.

Table 3. Effect of VRPs during and after VRP on employment and education for youths aged 18–23.

		EMPLOYMENT		EDUCATION
	Estimate	se	% change	Estimate	se	% change
Model (1): Base (log-likelihood −78256.64, 6 mp)
In Placement	−0.929***	0.115	−61%	−1.324***	0.153	−73%
In Training	−1.291***	0.181	−73%	−1.527***	0.241	−78%
In FU	−0.321*	0.186	−27%	−0.915***	0.237	−60%
After Placement	−0.081	0.117	−8%	−0.078	0.152	−8%
After Training	0.041	0.176	4%	0.090	0.215	9%
After FU	0.335*	0.199	40%	0.125	0.241	13%
Model (2): No mental disorders (log-likelihood −45798.92, 7 mp)
In Placement	−1.196***	0.157	−70%	−1.946***	0.215	−86%
In Training	−1.530***	0.254	−78%	−1.598***	0.291	−80%
In FU	−0.688***	0.250	−49%	−1.209***	0.256	−70%
After Placement	−0.245	0.166	−22%	−0.639***	0.205	−47%
After Training	−0.308	0.258	−27%	0.041	0.239	4%
After FU	−0.203	0.244	−18%	−0.637**	0.258	−47%
Model (3): Mental disorders (log-likelihood −32208.93, 7 mp)
In Placement	−1.092***	0.236	−66%	−0.765**	0.300	−53%
In Training	−1.788***	0.339	−83%	−1.847***	0.429	−84%
In FU	−0.340	0.355	−28%	−1.191***	0.405	−69%
After Placement	−0.108	0.238	−10%	0.578*	0.313	78%
After Training	−0.034	0.311	−3%	−0.361	0.389	−30%
After FU	0.565	0.397	76%	0.424	0.363	53%

Model (1) is the standard type of model in the sense that it contains no information on previous mental health of the young unemployed and serves as a benchmark. Model (2) covers the subsample of youth with no MD in adolescence, while Model (3) focuses on youth with earlier MD. The table only includes programme effect estimates. Control variables include gender, age, ethnicity, education, previous welfare benefits, parental education, earnings and quarterly youth unemployment rates. %-change shows change in probability, calculated for a reference person.

Table 4. Effect of VRPs during and after VRP on employment and education for youths aged 20–23.

		EMPLOYMENT		EDUCATION
	Estimate	se	% change	Estimate	se	% change
Model (4): No mental disorders (log-likelihood −24092.43, 4 mp)
In Placement	−0.746***	0.163	−53%	−1.337***	0.244	−74%
In Training	−1.309***	0.223	−73%	−1.840***	0.362	−84%
In FU	−0.634***	0.194	−47%	−1.540***	0.335	−79%
After Placement	0.085	0.169	9%	−0.244	0.230	−22%
After Training	−0.252	0.214	−22%	−0.148	0.276	−14%
After FU	−0.067	0.200	−6%	−0.809***	0.306	−55%
Model (5): Mental disorders (log-likelihood −10963.59, 6 mp)
In Placement	−0.622*	0.366	−46%	−0.996**	0.501	−63%
In Training	−1.544***	0.535	−79%	−1.855**	0.818	−84%
In FU	−0.683	0.468	−49%	−1.598*	0.867	−78%
After Placement	0.363	0.334	44%	0.455	0.487	58%
After Training	0.332	0.435	39%	−2.516*	1.372	−92%
After FU	0.056	0.474	6%	−0.330	0.881	−28%

Model (4) covers the subsample of youth with no MD in adolescence, while Model (5) focuses on youth with earlier MD. The table only includes estimates of the effect of VRPs categories. Control variables as in Table 3.

Table 5. Effect of VRPs during and after VRP on employment and education for youths aged 18–21.

	EMPLOYMENT		EDUCATION
	Estimate	se	Estimate	se
Model (6): No mental disorders (log-likelihood −39528.15, 16 mp)
In Placement	−1.409***	0.179	−2.257***	0.257
In Training	−1.160***	0.283	−1.371***	0.394
In FU	−0.657***	0.326	−1.236***	0.362
After Placement	−0.317*	0.192	−0.866***	0.244
After Training	0.242	0.287	0.651*	0.366
After FU	−0.057	0.354	−0.580	0.376
Model (7): Mental disorders (log-likelihood −30137.24, 5 mp)
In Placement	−0.838***	0.236	−0.859***	0.257
In Training	−1.962***	0.343	−2.057***	0.460
In FU	−0.373	0.335	−1.466***	0.410
After Placement	0.146	0.233	0.508*	0.268
After Training	−0.244	0.290	−0.531	0.405
After FU	0.353	0.387	0.159	0.346

Only programme effect estimates are included in the table. Control variables as in Table 3.

Table 6. Impact of VRPs during and after VRP on employment and education performance of estimates with different information criteria for youths aged 18–23.

	Max		AIC		BIC
No MD	Estimate	sd	Estimate	sd	Estimate	sd
EMPLOYMENT
On Placement	−1.254***	0,170	−1.196***	0.157	−0.758***	0.116
On Training	−1.221***	0,269	−1.530***	0.254	−0.952***	0.180
on FU	−0.661**	0,268	−0.688***	0.250	−0.571***	0.152
After Placement	−0.249	0.182	−0.245	0.166	0.062	0.119
After Training	−0.013	0.278	−0.308	0.258	0.168	0.171
After FU	−0.106	0.272	−0.203	0.244	−0.158	0.152
EDUCATION
On Placement	−1.944***	0.235	−1.946***	0.215	−1.480***	0.167
On Training	−1.089***	0.402	−1.598***	0.291	−1.393***	0.253
on FU	−1.128***	0.296	−1.209***	0.256	−1.233***	0.236
After Placement	−0.625***	0.229	−0.639***	0.205	−0.233	0.154
After Training	0.731**	0.375	0.041	0.239	0.263	0.208
After FU	−0.518*	0.308	−0.637**	0.258	−0.682***	0.231
Log-likelihood	−45775.70		−45798.92		−45852.87
Mass points	13		7		3
MD
EMPLOYMENT
On Placement	−1.164***	0.293	−1.092***	0.236	−1.079***	0.185
On Training	−2.729***	0.407	−1.788***	0.339	−1.429***	0.296
on FU	−0.538	0.420	−0.340	0.355	−0.109	0.290
After Placement	−0.107	0.297	−0.108	0.238	−0.387**	0.179
After Training	−0.752**	0.371	−0.034	0.311	0.157	0.247
After FU	0.273	0.479	0.565	0.397	0.675**	0.311
EDUCATION
On Placement	−0.676*	0.394	−0.765**	0.300	−1.196***	0.230
On Training	−1.829***	0.552	−1.847***	0.429	−1.890***	0.399
on FU	−1.374***	0.409	−1.191***	0.405	−1.047***	0.377
After Placement	0.693	0.421	0.578*	0.313	−0.085	0.225
After Training	−0.295	0.546	−0.361	0.389	−0.566*	0.334
After FU	0.149	0.386	0.424	0.363	0.482	0.302
Log-likelihood	−32189.33		−32208.93		−32252.75
Mass points	17		7		3

Only program effect estimates are included in the table. Control variables as in Table 3.

Data availability statement

Data in Norway is subject to outmost restrictions, particularly health data. It is only available for research purposes under a declaration of confidentiality.