From aggregations to multimethod case configurations. Case diversity in quantitative analysis when explaining COVID-19 fatalities

Figures & data

Table 1. Dynamic Pattern Synthesis: cluster configurations and summaries.

Country	CountryCode	GovResponse	IntArrivals	Infections	clustermembership	Fatalities	Summary notes
Switzerland	CHE	37	10.36	3003	1	194.46	Lower international arrivals, higher known infections. Gov.response close to average
Ireland	IRL	46	10.93	2987	1	351.57
Luxembourg	LUX	81	1.02	5706	2	175.73	Outlier, highest infections, similar to C3
Turkey	TUR	62	45.77	1409	3	60.84	Lower fatalities, higher gov. responses
Austria	AUT	73	30.82	1604	3	78.28
Portugal	PRT	79	16.19	2032	3	154.56
Slovenia	SVN	75	4.43	648	3	53.39
Czech Republic	CZE	69	10.61	636	3	32.59
Slovak Republic	SVK	70	2.26	249	3	5.13
Hungary	HUN	65	17.55	234	3	60.56
Netherlands	NLD	55	18.78	1686	4	356.76	Lower international arrivals. Above average gov. responses, (exception is CHL, marginally below average). Tendency to below average fatalities (exceptions are NLD and CHL – above average, but not as high scores as countries in C7 and C8)
Chile	CHL	36	5.72	572	4	297.55
Norway	NOR	57	5.69	1249	4	46.12
Denmark	DNK	58	12.75	1148	4	104.45
Israel	ISR	39	4.12	1150	4	36.97
Estonia	EST	41	3.23	1081	4	52.02
Finland	FIN	10	3.22	67	5	59.20	Lower fatalities, lower known infections. The countries with a higher range of known infections in the cluster have relatively higher gov. response scores in cluster.
Australia	AUS	24	9.25	8	5	4.08
South Korea	KOR	33	1.53	143	5	5.50
New Zealand	NZL	41	3.69	221	5	4.56
Poland	POL	44	19.62	260	5	38.66
Greece	GRC	38	30.12	205	5	18.42
Mexico	MEX	6	41.31	54	6	215.38	Lower government responses, lower known infections. Fatalities are lower, or close to average.
Canada	CAN	8	21.13	7	6	227.62
Japan	JPN	12	31.19	2	6	7.70
Germany	DEU	18	38.88	72	6	107.24
Spain	ESP	18	82.77	674	7	606.46	Higher fatalities, lower government responses, higher international arrivals, lower known infections
Italy	ITA	24	61.57	681	7	575.02
United States	USA	8	79.75	2	7	384.92
France	FRA	10	89.32	55	7	457.20
United Kingdom	GBR	18	36.32	49	8	644.17
Sweden	SWE	10	7.44	158	8	528.06	Higher fatalities, lower government response, lower known infections
Belgium	BEL	8	9.12	589	8	841.62
Mean		39	23.23	868		205.66	Key
Median		38	12.75	572		104.45	Cluster scores are all above mean average
St dev		24	24.16	1172		223.18	Cluster scores are all below mean average

Table 2. Truth Table: Covid-19 fatality outcomes.

IntArrivals	GovResponse	Infections	N	Fatality	Cases	Raw consist.	PRI consist.
1	0	1	2	1	ITA, ESP	0.898	0.674
1	0	0	7	1	FRA, DEU, GRC, JPN, MEX, GBR, USA	0.732	0.502
1	1	1	2	0	AUT, TUK	0.724	0.032
0	0	1	6	0	BEL, CHL, EST, IRL, ISR, CHE	0.694	0.321
0	1	1	7	0	CZE, DNK, LUX, NLD, NOR, PRT, SVN	0.567	0.113
0	0	0	7	0	AUS, CAN, FIN, NZK, POL, KOR, SWE	0.525	0.238
0	1	0	2	0	HUN, SVK	0.456	0.015
IntArrivals	GovResponse	Infections	N	~Deaths	Cases	raw consist.	PRI consist.
0	1	0	2	1	HUN, SVK	0.992	0.985
1	1	1	2	1	AUT, TUK	0.991	0.968
0	1	1	7	1	CZE,DNK,LUX,NLD,NOR,PRT,SVN	0.873	0.740
0	0	0	7	1	AUS,CAN,FIN,NZK,POL,KOR,SWE	0.838	0.741
0	0	1	6	1	BEL,CHL,EST,IRL,ISR,CHE	0.829	0.622
1	0	1	2	0	ITA, ESP	0.789	0.326
1	0	0	7	0	FRA,DEU,GRC,JPN,MEX, GBR,USA	0.679	0.404

(Logical remainder 1 1 0)

Table

Dataset
Country	Country Code	Fatalities	IntArrvials	GovResponse	Infections
Australia	AUS	0.05	0.12	0.15	0.05
Austria	AUT	0.18	0.57	0.9	0.65
Belgium	BEL	0.95	0.12	0.06	0.51
Canada	CAN	0.58	0.38	0.06	0.05
Chile	CHL	0.65	0.08	0.28	0.51
Czech Republic	CZE	0.08	0.14	0.86	0.52
Denmark	DNK	0.27	0.18	0.68	0.59
Estonia	EST	0.11	0.06	0.35	0.58
Finland	FIN	0.13	0.06	0.06	0.07
France	FRA	0.79	0.95	0.06	0.06
Germany	DEU	0.28	0.65	0.11	0.07
Greece	GRC	0.06	0.56	0.31	0.14
Hungary	HUN	0.13	0.28	0.8	0.17
Ireland	IRL	0.7	0.15	0.43	0.81
Israel	ISR	0.09	0.07	0.32	0.59
Italy	ITA	0.86	0.84	0.15	0.53
Japan	JPN	0.05	0.57	0.07	0.05
Luxembourg	LUX	0.48	0.05	0.95	0.95
Mexico	MEX	0.57	0.68	0.05	0.06
Netherlands	NLD	0.71	0.31	0.62	0.66
New Zealand	NZL	0.05	0.07	0.35	0.16
Norway	NOR	0.1	0.08	0.66	0.61
Poland	POL	0.09	0.34	0.4	0.19
Portugal	PRT	0.48	0.25	0.94	0.71
Slovak Republic	SVK	0.05	0.06	0.87	0.18
Slovenia	SVN	0.12	0.07	0.91	0.52
South Korea	KOR	0.05	0.05	0.24	0.1
Spain	ESP	0.88	0.94	0.11	0.53
Sweden	SWE	0.84	0.1	0.06	0.11
Switzerland	CHE	0.48	0.14	0.3	0.81
Turkey	TUR	0.13	0.72	0.75	0.63
United Kingdom	GBR	0.89	0.63	0.11	0.06
United States	USA	0.73	0.93	0.06	0.05