Surviving progress: managing the collective risks of civilization

Abstract

As optimism is becoming ever more apparent, progress carries with it both promise and pitfalls. Though it is quite natural for humans to take an optimistic view of life, this optimism must at the same time be tempered with realism. We cannot therefore let a focus on average, or expected, outcomes cause us to ignore possible high-stakes (existential) risks associated with what is becoming an increasingly complex world. In this paper, we argue that a more complete view is necessary for a proper assessment of not only the technical aspects of high-stakes risk management, but also the social, political, and economic framework within which it is carried out. Unfortunately, attention to such crucial details is not often the case.

Keywords:

• catastrophic risk
• risk management
• precaution
• social systems

Notes

1. In terms of propositional logic, markets imply the logical ‘OR’ (+) connective between system attributes (usually represented as utilities), A_i: A₁ + A₂, …  + A_n, suggesting overall performance can be maintained by reducing the contribution of some components while increasing others. Absolutes imply a fully integrated system as represented by the ‘AND’ (×) connective: A₁ × A₂, … , × A_n, which means that all aspects must function together to preserve system integrity.

2. Leopold’s bioethic of community, or what he called the ‘land ethic’, has been further developed in the contemporary writings of Callicott (1989).

3. An example of constraint-based planning for the satisfaction of human needs while preserving ecological limits for survival is given in Bartelmus (1979). New developments in engineering within environmental boundaries are reviewed in Schulze (1996).