Managing decision-making with certainty of threat

Abstract

Several factors, such as emotion and uncertainty of the outcome, influence decision-making. We assessed decision-making during a risky event (natural hazard, focusing here on two types of volcanic threats) by manipulating the certainty of lethal threat in an information campaign. We hypothesized that the reduction of uncertainty of lethal threat in an information campaign would improve behavior through more suitable choices by reducing the use of emotional choices. In the scenario that occurred in a familiar place, participants who received information with uncertainty of lethal threat presented more emotional and comfortable choices, such as staying at home, rather than detached ones, such as leaving the area. These were either appropriate (for volcanic ash cloud) or inappropriate (for pyroclastic flow). The certainty hypothesis was partially validated, as certainty influenced the quality of choice in the scenarios that took place at home. Furthermore, participants in the volcanic disaster context presented less suitable decisions compared to those in the neutral context, which was discussed in terms of the presence of emotions, such as fear of volcanic eruption. Our results highlight the importance of controlling the comforting emotional aspect of the home environment in any information communication.

Keywords:

• uncertainty
• emotion
• decision-making
• risk-taking
• information campaign

Notes

1. Some studies showed that gender influences risk perception (females perceive more risk) and willingness to take action (females are more prone to preparedness) (e.g. Brody et al. 2008), but others exhibited no influence (e.g. Burningham, Fielding, and Thrush 2008; Plapp and Werner 2006). The influence of gender is thus inconsistent and would rather be mediated by other factors such as education or parenting (Wachinger et al. 2013). Regarding anticipatory emotions, gender did not change how feelings influence risk perception and willingness to take action (Terpstra 2011). Thus, we think that the overrepresentation of females in our sample should not alter the effect of certainty as this effect relies on how anticipatory emotions are used during a decision.

2. The film excerpt starts when the bridge is collapsing, and it ends when characters are trying to flee from a hot, ground-hugging volcanic cloud.

3. The film excerpt shows the different construction stages of the Boeing 747-8 in a shortened way.

4. Note that the appropriateness of a given choice varied according to threat and scenario conditions (e.g. staying in the area was sometimes appropriate, sometimes not). In most cases, the appropriate choice for the pyroclastic flow is to leave the area to reach a shelter. On the opposite, the appropriate choice for the volcanic ash cloud is to stay in a closed environment with a sturdy roof.

5. We also conducted all the analyses excluding the six participants with lung disease. The lung disease did not have any influence on the choices, since we obtained very similar results, regardless of whether we included those participants from the sample. Specifically, only one simple effect analysis differed. In location 3 ‘At a familiar place’ for the pyroclastic flow condition, the effect of certainty was not significant, F(1, 140) = 2.44, p = .12, η_p² = .03. In the whole sample (n = 74), the effect of certainty was significant for this simple effect analysis, F(1, 140) = 6.56, p = .011, η_p² = .06.