Evidence-based uncertainty analysis: What should we now do in Europe? A view point

Abstract

There has been a great deal of discussion regarding both the communication of scientific uncertainties associated with regulatory decisions as well as the supposed need for more transparent uncertainty analyses associated with risk assessments themselves.  More recently, in Europe this discussion has been led by the European Food Safety Authority’s Scientific Committee.  In this viewpoint, we both review the ongoing debates surrounding uncertainty analysis as well as discuss some of the problems associated with communicating uncertainties. In the final section of the viewpoint, we offer some recommendations regarding what EFSA could do now going forward.

Keywords:

• uncertainty analysis
• transparency
• EFSA

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding

This work was supported by the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen; Merck; Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment; Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas.

Acknowledgments

We are indebted to the following individuals who have either provided us with information or commented on earlier versions of this article: Asa Boholm, Ann Bostrom, Hubert Deluyker, Baruch Fischhoff, Andrea Germini, Laurie Hueneke, Branden Johnson, Marijke Hermans, Geoffrey Podger, Ullrika Sahlin, Arjen van der Heide, Dominic Way, and Jamie Wardman. Excerpts of this view point were first presented at the ‘evidence based uncertainty analysis workshop’ cohosted by George Washington University and the US Department of Agriculture on the 22nd April 2016 in Washington DC and at the follow up workshop hosted by Julie Girling MEP at the European Parliament in Brussels 4th May 2016.