Who is really ‘left behind’? Half a century of gender differences in the school-to-work transitions of low-educated youth

Figures & data

Figure 1. Early school leavers across historical time and birth years and high school graduation rates over time.

Notes: (a) Eurostat, historical series; (b) Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations; (c) ISTAT - Italian National Statistical Institute, historical series. Splines estimates.

Figure 2. Unemployment rates and inactivity rated for selected age groups.

Note: ISTAT - Italian National Statistical Institute, historical series.

Table 1. Samples’ distribution.

	Early school leavers	High-school graduates
	Share (in %)	Share (in %)
Gender
Men	51.65	48.78
Women	48.35	51.22
Birth cohort
1954–1963	38.99	26.39
1964–1973	32.98	32.27
1974–1983	19.16	27.16
1984–1993	8.87	14.18
Geographical area
North-West	19.51	21.48
North-East	17.26	22.5
Center	16.03	17.04
South and Islands	47.2	38.99
Highest parental education
Illiterate	4.04	0.75
No certificate, literate	13.71	4.27
Elementary certificate	49.91	36.15
Lower-secondary certifcate	20.61	29.64
Upper-secondary certificate	6.4	24.08
Tertiary degree or higher	5.33	5.1
Own max. level attendance
Elementary certificate	11.58
Enrolled in lower-secondary, no certificate	3.32
Lower-sec. certif.	13.95
Enrolled in upper-secondary, no certificate	71.12
Missing	0.04
Type of high school degree
2–3 years		23.59
4–5 years		76.41
Labor market status at the last observation.
Unemployment	30.48	18.37
Employment	69.52	81.63
Type of contract at the last observation.
Unemployment	30.69	18.5
Employee with contract	50.51	66.91
Employee without contract	12.2	6.08
Self-employed with employees	1.66	2.56
Self-employed without employees	4.95	5.96
Work hours at the last observation
Unemployment	30.48	18.37
Full-time	61.93	72.27
Part-time	7.59	9.36
Number of children at the last observation.
0	82.35	88.05
1	9.94	6.98
2	7.71	4.97
Partnership status at the last observation.
Single	80.64	86.45
Cohabitation	0.94	0.68
Marriage	17.48	11.92
Separation	0.95	0.95
	Mean (SD)	Mean (SD)
Age at school-exit	12.74 (2.04)	16.92 (1.39)
Age at school-exit (squared)	166.65(53.81)	288.43 (47.71)
Number of observations per individual	6.16 (4.16)	5.02 (3.76)
N (individuals)	8,015	6,761
N (observations)	57,726	40,804

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Figure 3. Early school leavers. Kaplan-Maier survival curves for entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system by gender and birth cohort, 95% confidence intervals.

Note: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Table 2. Early school leavers. Discrete time logistic regression models: survival probabilities of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)
Women (ref.: Men)	0.43***	0.43***	0.46***	0.47***	0.47***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Birth cohort (ref.: 1954–1963)
1964–1973		0.85***	0.84***	0.84***	0.84***
		(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
1974–1983		0.80***	0.78***	0.78***	0.77***
		(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
1984–1993		0.78***	0.77***	0.77***	0.77***
		(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Geographical area		x	x	x	x
Highest parental education		x	x	x	x
Own max. level attendance		x	x	x	x
Number of children			x		x
Partnership status				x	x
Age at school-exit		x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit (squared)		x	x	x	x
Time (logged)	x	x	x	x	x
Time (squared)		x	x	x	x
Time (cubic)		x	x	x	x
N.	57,748	57,726	57,726	57,726	57,726

Note: clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual. Full results in Table A1 in the Appendix.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Figure 4. Early school leavers. Adjusted predicted survival probabilities for entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system by gender and birth cohort, 95% confidence intervals.

Note: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.Note: estimates from Model 5 in Table 2.

Table 3. Early school leavers. Discrete time multinomial logistic regression models of competing risk: relative-risk ratios of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system via specific employment arrangement. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1				Model 2				Model 3				Model 4
	ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment
	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees
Gender (ref.Men)
Women	0.47***	0.37***	0.17***	0.26***	0.48***	0.37***	0.17***	0.25***	0.48***	0.38***	0.17***	0.25***	0.53***	0.40***	0.17***	0.27***
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)
Time (logged)	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (squared)					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (cubic)					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Year					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Birth cohort									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Geographical area									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Highest parental education									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Own max. level attendance									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit (squared)									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Number of children													x	x	x	x
Partnership status													x	x	x	x

Notes: N = 56332. Clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Table 4. Early school leavers. Discrete time multinomial logistic regression models of competing risk: relative-risk ratios of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system via specific working-hours arrangement. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment
	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job
Gender (ref.Men)
Women	0.40***	0.73***	0.40***	0.76**	0.40***	0.76***	0.44***	0.79**
	(0.01)	(0.06)	(0.01)	(0.06)	(0.01)	(0.06)	(0.01)	(0.07)
Time (logged)	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (squared)			x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (cubic)			x	x	x	x	x	x
Year			x	x	x	x	x	x
Birth cohort					x	x	x	x
Geographical area					x	x	x	x
Highest parental education					x	x	x	x
Own max. level attendance					x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit					x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit (squared)					x	x	x	x
Number of children							x	x
Partnership status							x	x

Note: N = 56386. Clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Figure A1. High school graduates. (a) Kaplan-Maier survival curves and (b) adjusted predicted survival probabilities for entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system by gender and birth cohort, 95% confidence intervals.

Note: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.Note: estimates in (b) are from Model 3 in Table A1.

Table A1. Early school leavers. Discrete time logistic regression models: survival probabilities of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)
Women (ref.: Men)	0.43***	0.43***	0.46***	0.47***	0.47***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Birth cohort (ref.: 1954–1963)
1964–1973		0.85***	0.84***	0.84***	0.84***
		(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
1974–1983		0.80***	0.78***	0.78***	0.77***
		(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
1984–1993		0.78***	0.77***	0.77***	0.77***
		(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Geographical area (ref.: North-West)
North-East		1.26***	1.27***	1.26***	1.27***
		(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.06)
Center		0.85***	0.84***	0.84***	0.84***
		(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)
South and Islands		0.44***	0.44***	0.44***	0.44***
		(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Highest parental education (ref.: illiterate)
No certif., literate		1.30**	1.32**	1.31**	1.32**
		(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.12)
Elementary certif.		1.36***	1.37***	1.36***	1.37***
		(0.11)	(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.12)
Lower-sec. certif.		1.31**	1.33**	1.31**	1.32**
		(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.12)	(0.12)
Upper-sec. certif.		1.31**	1.32**	1.29*	1.30*
		(0.13)	(0.14)	(0.13)	(0.14)
Tertiary degree or higher		1.02	1.04	1.03	1.04
		(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Own max. level attendance (ref.: elementary certificate)
Enrolled in lower-sec., no certif.		1.62***	1.63***	1.62***	1.63***
		(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)
Lower-sec. certif.		1.27**	1.25**	1.26**	1.25**
		(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.11)
Enrolled in upper-sec., no certif.		1.54***	1.52***	1.53***	1.52***
		(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)
Number of children (ref.:0)
1			0.53***		0.68***
			(0.05)		(0.07)
2			0.47***		0.63***
			(0.05)		(0.08)
Partnership status (ref.: single)
Cohabitation				0.79	0.93
				(0.14)	(0.17)
Marriage				0.48***	0.64***
				(0.04)	(0.06)
Separation				0.9	1.04
				(0.19)	(0.23)
Age at school-exit		1.30***	1.28**	1.29***	1.28**
		(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)
Age at school-exit (squared)		0.99*	0.99	0.99*	0.99
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Time (logged)	0.68***	0.61***	0.61***	0.60***	0.61***
	(0.01)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
Time (squared)		1.02***	1.02***	1.02***	1.02***
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Time (cubic)		1.00***	1.00***	1.00***	1.00***
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
N.	57,748	57,726	57,726	57,726	57,726

Note: clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Table A2. High school graduates. Discrete time logistic regression models: survival probabilities of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)	OR (s.e.)
Women (ref.: Men)	0.62***	0.65***	0.69***	0.71***	0.72***
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Birth cohort (ref.: 1954–1963)
1964–1973		0.94	0.92*	0.91*	0.91*
		(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)
1974–1983		1.08	1.04	1.02	1.02
		(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.04)
1984–1993		1.12	1.09	1.09	1.08
		(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.06)
Geographical area (ref.: North-West)
North-East		1.35***	1.37***	1.37***	1.37***
		(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)
Center		0.70***	0.71***	0.71***	0.71***
		(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.04)
South and Islands		0.39***	0.39***	0.39***	0.39***
		(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Highest parental education (ref.: illiterate)*
Elementary certif.		1.38	1.32	1.39	1.36
		(0.09)	(0.10)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Lower-sec. certif.		1.72**	1.65**	1.71**	1.67**
		(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Upper-sec. certif.		1.60**	1.52*	1.56*	1.52*
		(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Tertiary degree or higher		1.23	1.18	1.24	1.21
		(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)
Type of high school diploma (ref.:2–3 years)
4–5 years		0.73***	0.72***	0.72***	0.72***
		(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)
Number of children (ref.:0)
1			0.52***		0.78*
			(0.04)		(0.08)
2			0.39***		0.61***
			(0.05)		(0.08)
Partnership status (ref.: single)
Cohabitation				0.58*	0.64
				(0.14)	(0.16)
Marriage				0.42***	0.51***
				(0.03)	(0.05)
Separation				0.64*	0.72
				(0.13)	(0.16)
Age at school-exit		2.43***	2.33***	2.27***	2.26***
		(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)
Age at school-exit (squared)		0.98***	0.98***	0.98***	0.98***
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Time (logged)	0.82***	1.39***	1.38***	1.37***	1.37***
	(0.01)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)
Time (squared)		0.98***	0.98***	0.99***	0.99***
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Time (cubic)		1.00***	1.00***	1.00**	1.00**
		(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
N.	40,804	40,804	40,804	40,804	40,804

Note: clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

*The categories ‘illiterate’ and ‘No certif., literate’ were merged.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Table A3. High school graduates. Discrete time multinomial logistic regression models of competing risk: relative-risk ratios of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system via specific employment arrangement. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1				Model 2				Model 3				Model 4
	ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment				ref. Unemployment
	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees	Empl. with contract	Empl. no contract	Self-empl. with employees	Self-empl. no employees
Gender (ref.Men)	0.63***	0.89	0.15***	0.27***	0.68***	0.95	0.16***	0.29***	0.68***	0.97	0.16***	0.29***	0.75***	1.02	0.18***	0.29***
Women	(0.02)	(0.1)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.1)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.1)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.1)	(0.04)	(0.03)
Time (logged)	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (squared)					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (cubic)					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Year					x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Birth cohort									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Geographical area									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Highest parental education*									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Type of high school degree									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit (squared)									x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Number of children													x	x	x	x
Partnership status													x	x	x	x

Notes: N = 34,384. Clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

*The categories ‘illiterate’ and ‘No certif., literate’ were merged.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.

Table A4. High school graduates. Discrete time multinomial logistic regression models of competing risk: relative-risk ratios of entering the labor market for the first time after leaving the educational system via specific working-hours arrangement. Odds ratios (standard errors in parentheses).

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
	ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment		ref. Unemployment
	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job	Full-time job	Part-time job
Gender (ref.Men)
Women	0.53***	1.46***	0.57***	1.58***	0.56***	1.62***	0.62***	1.76***
	(0.02)	(0.13)	(0.02)	(0.14)	(0.02)	(0.14)	(0.02)	(0.16)
Time (logged)	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (squared)			x	x	x	x	x	x
Time (cubic)			x	x	x	x	x	x
Year			x	x	x	x	x	x
Birth cohort					x	x	x	x
Geographical area					x	x	x	x
Highest parental education*					x	x	x	x
Type of high school degree					x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit					x	x	x	x
Age at school-exit (squared)					x	x	x	x
Number of children							x	x
Partnership status							x	x

Note: N = 34,430. Clustered standard error for multiple observations per individual.

*The categories ‘illiterate’ and ‘No certif., literate’ were merged.

Source: Multi-purpose Survey on Household and Social Subjects 2009, authors’ calculations.