Short-term responses of Dutch vacationers to a sharp increase in transport costs

Figures & data

Table 1. Dimensions for responses to a substantial increase in transport costs.

#	Short-term response dimensions	Reference	Context in reference
1	Destination (distance)	Williams et al. (1979) Kamp et al. (1979) Van Cranenburgh et al. (2014b)	First oil crisis First oil crisis Aviation carbon taxes
2	Length of stay	Mak et al. (1977) Williams et al. (1979) Van Cranenburgh et al. (2014a)	First oil crisis First oil crisis Aviation carbon taxes
3	Number of vacations per year	Corsi and Harvey (1979) Williams et al. (1979) Kamp et al. (1979)	First oil crisis First oil crisis First oil crisis
4	Cost of accommodation	Taplin (1997) Taplin and Smith (1998) Smeral (2009)	– – 2007 – Global financial crisis
5	Local spending	Steinnes (1988) Taplin (1997) Schiff and Becken (2011)	Second oil crisis – Various recent events
6	Mode of transport	Corsi and Harvey (1979) Williams et al. (1979) Van Cranenburgh et al. (2014b)	First oil crisis First oil crisis Aviation carbon taxes
7	Postponement of vacation	Hunt (1974) Corsi and Harvey (1979)	First oil crisis First oil crisis
8	Vacation period (high or low season)	–	–

Figure 1. Screenshot of the screen in which respondents composed vacation alternatives.

Table 2. Response statements.

#	Response dimension	Response statement
1	Destination (distance)	I do not go to my chosen destination. Instead, I look for a destination that is closer-by
2	Length of stay	I increase the length of stay at the destination
3	Number of vacations per year	I skip this vacation (no replacement)
4	Cost of accommodation	I book cheaper accommodation
5	Local spending	I reduce local spending
6	Mode of transport	I pick another mode of transport if that is considerably cheaper

Table 3. Sample characteristics (N = 419).

Variable	Sample frequency	Percentage in sample	Percentage in target population
Gender
Female	197	47	50
Male	222	53	50
Age
18–24 year	44	11	10
25–34 year	57	14	14
35–44 year	80	19	17
45–54 year	89	21	20
55–64 year	95	23	21
65–74 year	48	12	12
75+ year	6	1	7
Completed education
Elementary school	12	3	5
Lower education	99	24	21
Middle education	160	38	38
Higher education	99	24	23
University education	49	12	12
Discretionary household income
I < 10,000	22	5	4
10,000 ≤ I < 20,000	84	20	19
20,000 ≤ I < 30,000	86	21	21
30,000 ≤ I < 40,000	80	19	18
40,000 ≤ I < 50,000	63	15	15
50,000 ≤ I < 75,000	69	16	17
I ≥ 75,000	15	4	6
Household type
Multiple adult members	194	46	N/A
Single member household	98	23	N/A
Household with children	127	30	N/A
Number of household members
1 member	98	23%	N/A
2 members	163	39%	N/A
3 members	65	16%	N/A
4 members	61	15%	N/A
more than 4 members	32	8%	N/A

Figure 2. The LCCA model.

Table 4. Histograms of responses.

Table 5. Model fit of latent class models.

Number of classes	LL	BIC(LL)	Number of parameters	R^2	Classification error
1-Class	−3232.6	6605.3	24	–	–
2-Class	−3142.9	6478.4	33	0.73	0.063
3-Class	−3086.2	6417.5	42	0.79	0.061
4-Class	−3050.9	6399.3	51	0.79	0.072
5-Class	−3027.3	6404.8	60	0.83	0.062
6-Class	−3007.6	6417.7	69	0.83	0.065

Table 6. Parameter estimates of the four-class LCCA model with covariates.

Prediction of the indicator (measurement model)
	Class 1	z-val	Class 2	z-val	Class 3	z-val	Class 4	z-val	Wald	p-val
1. Destination	−0.633	−1.739	−1.831	−3.980	−0.441	−1.186	2.906	2.754	17.463	.001
2. Length of stay	0.532	2.255	0.208	0.829	0.811	3.135	−1.551	−2.254	14.516	.002
3. No. of vacations per year	−0.104	−0.742	−1.139	−5.515	0.137	0.854	1.106	3.070	31.976	.000
4. Cost of accommodation	−0.139	−0.539	−2.129	−6.721	3.768	6.132	−1.500	−4.001	54.011	.000
5. Local spending	−0.327	−1.756	−1.588	−6.365	2.978	6.404	−1.063	−4.081	51.360	.000
6. Mode of transport	0.122	1.265	−0.925	−5.406	0.798	4.879	0.006	0.037	36.573	.000
Intercepts
	1. Destination		2. Length of stay		3. No. of vacs.		4. Cost of accom.		5. Local spending		6. Mode of transp.
Wald	3.748		18.52		10.05		60.68		77.01		16.86
p-Value	.44		.00		.04		.00		.00		.00
	Overall	z-val	Overall	z-val	Overall	z-val	Overall	z-val	Overall	z-val	Overall	z-val
−2 Highly unlikely	−1.360	−1.891	1.132	2.461	−0.142	−0.508	−1.479	−3.285	−1.714	−5.035	0.236	1.341
−1	−0.648	−1.665	0.703	2.559	−0.132	−0.750	−0.067	−0.218	−0.163	−0.758	0.074	0.512
0	0.045	0.371	0.279	2.637	0.342	3.130	1.024	6.891	0.969	7.608	0.321	2.961
1	0.704	1.794	−0.486	−1.862	0.009	0.044	1.008	3.460	1.170	4.929	−0.015	−0.108
2 Highly likely	1.258	1.748	−1.628	−3.330	−0.077	−0.303	−0.487	−1.000	−0.263	−0.771	−0.616	−3.190

Table

Prediction of the latent class membership (the structural model)
	Class 1	z-val	Class 2	z-val	Class 3	z-val	Class 4	z-val	Wald	p-Val
Intercept	1.253	2.983	−0.488	−0.897	−0.256	−0.447	−0.509	−0.641	10.275	.016
Income	−0.188	−2.611	−0.057	−0.613	0.126	1.292	0.119	0.960	7.902	.048
Age	0.233	2.585	0.205	2.003	−0.158	−1.389	−0.280	−1.415	10.994	.012

Table 7. Conditional response probabilities of the four-class model with covariates.

Table 8. Profiles of four-class model.

Covariates	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Mean
Age
18–24 year	11%	13%	5%	10%	10%
25–54 year	61%	45%	52%	39%	49%
55+ year	27%	43%	43%	52%	41%
Income
I < 10,000	3%	7%	7%	0%	4%
10,000 ≤ I < 20,000	13%	16%	27%	45%	25%
20,000 ≤ I < 30,000	21%	14%	34%	30%	25%
30,000 ≤ I < 40,000	23%	23%	12%	14%	18%
40,000 ≤ I < 50,000	17%	14%	13%	7%	13%
50,000 ≤ I < 75,000	18%	24%	7%	3%	13%
I ≥ 75,000	4%	2%	0%	0%	2%

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