A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism

Figures & data

Figure 1. The evolution of peer-reviewed climate change and skiing tourism literature.

Table 1. Comparison of climate variability and change research in global ski tourism markets.

Region	2014 Skier Visits (SV)^a	Rank SV^a,b	Rank SV/capita^a,b	Sensitivity assessments	Number of assessments per category
					Impact and vulnerability assessments	Tourists’ perception and behavioural response	Integrated vulnerability assessments	Ski industry perception	Total publications
United States	57,092,127	1	18	5	10	2	3	0	20
France	56,226,000	2	8	3	1	0	1	1	6
Austria	53,155,600	3	1	4	10	1	4	3	22
Japan	34,432,389	4	16	0	0	0	1	0	1
Italy	28,100,000	5	13	0	4	0	2	1	7
Switzerland	26,538,264	6	3	3	12	2	1	7	25
Canada	18,700,400	7	11	0	9	2	3	0	14
Germany	14,922,000	8	19	0	7	1	3	1	12
Sweden	8,070,800	10	5	1	1	0	0	1	3
South Korea	6,531,832	12	22	0	1	0	0	0	1
Norway	6,390,000	13	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
Spain	5,677,571	14	24	0	1	0	1	0	2
Slovakia	5,000,000	16	7	0	0	0	1	0	1
Andorra	2,184,806	19	2	0	1	0	2	0	3
Finland	2,846,000	18	12	1	0	0	0	4	5
Australia	2,082,600	20	25	0	6	4	1	6	17
New Zealand	1,413,552	22	17	0	2	1	0	3	6
Bulgaria	1,200,000	26	20	0	1	0	0	0	1
Romania	1,200,000	27	30	0	0	0	0	1	1
Turkey	1,200,000	28	42	0	1	0	0	0	1
UK	249,311	39	47	0	2	0	0	1	3
EU	–	–	–	1	1	0	1	0	3
Alps	–	–	–	0	1	0	0	0	1
Global	–	–	–	0	1	0	0	0	1

^aVanat (2014).

^bGrey shade: country in the top 10 of skier visits or skier visits per inhabitant.

Table 2. A comparison of projected changes of ski season length and snow reliable ski areas in the 2050s.

Region	Indicator	First generation studies (natural snow)	Second generation studies (including snowmaking)
Québec (Canada)	Reduction of season length	40–89% (McBoyle & Wall, 1987)	32–39% (Scott et al., 2007) 32–34% (Scott et al., 2006)
		42–87% (Lamothe & Periard Consultants, 1988)
		28–90% (McBoyle & Wall, 1992)
		40–100% (Harrison et al., 1986)
Ontario (Canada)	Reduction of season length	30–100% (McBoyle et al., 1986)	36–46% (Scott et al., 2006)
		35–100% (McBoyle & Wall, 1992)
Michigan (USA)	Reduction of season length	39–100% (McBoyle & Wall, 1992)	65% (Scott et al., 2006)
Tyrol (Austria)	Share of snow reliable ski areas	57% (Abegg et al., 2007)	49/90% (without/with sm) (Steiger & Stötter, 2013)
South Tyrol (Italy)	Share of snow reliable ski areas	63% (Abegg et al., 2007)	55/100% (Steiger & Stötter, 2013)

Figure 2. Share of snow reliable ski areas in North American and European regions in a 2050s high emission scenario. Source (Data from Dawson & Scott, 2013; Steiger & Abegg, 2015).

Figure 3. Required increase of produced snow to guarantee a 100-day season in a 2050s high emission scenario. Source: (Data from Scott et al., 2006, 2008; Steiger & Abegg, 2015). *Québec and Ontario based on case studies.

Table 3. Comparison of skier surveys on adaptation to climate change.

Country	Author	Spatial substitution	Activity substitution	Temporal substitution
Australia	König (1998)	63% (38% travel overseas)	6%	31%
	Pickering et al. (2010)	26% (16% travel overseas)	5%	69%
Austria	Unbehaun et al. (2008)^a	68%	25%	39%
Austria, France, Germany	Luthe (2009)	28%	8%	64%
Canada (Ontario)	Rutty et al. (2015a)^b	61%	3%	36%
Switzerland	Bürki (2000), Behringer et al. (2000)	49%	4%	32%
US (Northeast)	Dawson and Scott (2010)^a	39%	46%	34%

^aMultiple responses allowed.

^bIf ski resort is closed permanently.

Table 4. Impacts of extraordinary warm winter seasons on supply-side and demand-side indicators.

Authors	Region	Season	Temperature anomaly^a	Analogue for future climate change	Demand change (skier visits)	Supply change (operating days)
Scott (2006a)	Northeast (US), Ontario and Quebec (Canada)	2001–2002	+4.4°C	A1B 2040–2069	−11% (US NE) −7% (Ontario) −10% (Québec)
Dawson et al. (2009)	Northeast (US	2001–2002	+4.4°C	A1B 2040–2069	−11.6%	−10.9 days
Steiger (2011a)	South Tyrol (Italy)	1988–1989	+2.6°C	A1B 2050s, B1 2070s	−33%
Steiger (2011a)	South Tyrol (Italy)	2006–2007	+2.9°C	A1B 2050, B1 2070s	−2%
Steiger (2011b)	Tyrol (Austria)	2006–2007	+3.0°C	A1B 2060s, B1 2080s	−11%	−10 days
Pickering (2011)	Australia	2006	+0.6°C, −50% precipitation	B1 2050 (only for temp!)	−38%
Rutty et al. (2017)	Ontario (Canada)	2011–2012	+3.6°C	RCP 8.5 mid-century	−10%	−16 days

^aTemperature difference from current climate normals (1961–1990 or 1981–2010).

Table A1. List of reviewed literature per country and category.

Country/region	Sensitivity assessments	Impact and vulnerability assessments	Tourists’ perception and behavioural response	Integrated vulnerability assessments	Ski industry perception
Alps		Abegg et al. (2007)
Andorra		Pons et al. (2015)		Pons-Pons et al. (2012), Pons et al. (2014)
Australia		Galloway (1988), Hendrikx et al. (2013), Hennessy et al. (2008), König (1998), König (1999), Pickering and Buckley (2010)	Cocolas et al. (2016), Hopkins et al. (2013), König (1998), Pickering et al. (2010)	Pickering (2011)	Bicknell and McManus (2006), Hopkins et al. (2013), König (1998), König (1999), Morrison and Pickering (2013)
Austria	Falk (2010), Falk (2013), Falk (2016), Töglhofer et al. (2011)	Abegg and Steiger (2017), Berghammer and Schmude (2014), Breiling and Charamza (1999), Steiger and Mayer (2008), Steiger (2010), Steiger (2012), Steiger and Abegg (2013), Steiger and Stötter (2013), Steiger and Abegg (2015), Steiger and Abegg (2017)	Unbehaun et al. (2008)	Damm et al. (2014), Soboll and Schmude (2011), Soboll and Dingeldey (2012), Steiger (2011b)	Luthe (2009), Trawöger (2014), Wolfsegger et al. (2008)
Bulgaria		Demiroglu (2016)
Canada		Harrison et al. (1986), Lamothe and Periard Consultants (1988), McBoyle et al. (1986), McBoyle and Wall (1987), McBoyle and Wall (1992), Scott et al. (2003), Scott et al. (2007), Scott and Steiger (2013), Scott et al. (2017)	Rutty et al. (2015a), Rutty et al. (2015b)	Pons et al. (in press), Rutty et al. (2017), Scott (2006a)
EU	Damm et al. (2016)	Tranos and Davoudi (2014)		Damm et al. (2016)
Finland	Falk and Vieru (2016)				Haanpää et al. (2015), Saarinen and Tervo (2006), Saarinen and Tervo (2010), Tervo-Kankare (2011)
France	Falk (2015), Falk and Vanat (2016), François et al. (2014)	Pons et al. (2015)		Pons et al. (2014)	Luthe (2009)
Germany		Abegg and Steiger (2017), Berghammer and Schmude (2014), Endler and Matzarakis (2011), Luthe (2009), Sauter et al. (2009), Schmidt, Steiger, and Matzarakis (2012), Steiger and Abegg (2015), Steiger and Abegg (2017)		Soboll & Schmude, 2011; Soboll & Dingeldey, 2012; Soboll et al., 2012	Hoy et al. (2011)
Italy		Abegg and Steiger (2017), Steiger and Stötter (2013), Steiger and Abegg (2015), Steiger and Abegg (2017)		Balbi et al. (2013), Steiger (2011a)	Luthe (2009)
Japan				Fukushima et al. (2002)
New Zealand		Hendrikx and Hreinsson (2012), Hendrikx et al. (2013)	Hopkins et al. (2013)		Hopkins et al. (2013), Hopkins (2014, 2015)
Norway			Demiroglu et al. (in press)
Romania					Dincă, Surugiu, Surugiu, and Frenţ (2014)
Slovakia				Demiroglu et al. (2016)
Spain		Pons et al. (2015)		Pons et al. ( 2014)
Sweden	Falk and Hagsten (2016)	Moen and Fredman (2007)			Brouder and Lundmark (2011)
Switzerland	Abegg and Frösch (1994), König and Abegg (1997), Gonseth (2013)	Abegg (1996), Abegg et al. (1994), Abegg et al. (2015), Berghammer and Schmude (2014), Bürki (2000), Elsasser and Messerli (2001), Elsasser and Bürki (2002), König and Abegg (1997), Rixen et al. (2011), Steiger and Abegg (2015), Steiger and Abegg (2017), Uhlmann et al. (2008)	Behringer et al. (2000), Bürki (2000)	Soboll and Schmude (2011)	Abegg (1996), Abegg et al. (2008), Behringer et al. (2000), Bürki (2000), Hoffmann et al. (2009), Luthe (2009), Wyss et al. (2014)
Turkey		Demiroglu et al. (2016)
UK		Harrison et al. (1999), Harrison et al. (2005)			Hopkins and Maclean (2014)
US	Hamilton et al. (2003), Hamilton et al. (2007), Shih et al. (2009), Tang and Jang (2012), Beaudin and Huang (2014)	Bark et al. (2010), Dawson and Scott (2007), Dawson and Scott (2013), Lipski and McBoyle (1991), McBoyle and Wall (1992), Scott et al. (2006), Scott et al. (2008), Scott and Steiger (2013), Wobus et al. (2017), Zimmerman et al. (2006)	Dawson et al. (2011), Dawson et al. (2013)	Dawson et al. (2009), Dawson and Scott (2010), Scott (2006b)
South Korea		Heo and Lee (2008)
Global		Scott et al. (2014)

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