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Original Articles

Scenario planning as a tool to understand uncertainty in tourism: the example of transport and tourism in Scotland in 2025

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Pages 99-137 | Received 10 Sep 2007, Published online: 12 Feb 2010
 

Abstract

This paper discusses the use of scenario planning as a methodology to help understand the future of tourism. It reports on the results of a scenario planning exercise undertaken in 2007 in Scotland by VisitScotland, the National Tourism Organisation for Scotland, which seeks to understand how transport might shape tourism in 2025. The study followed an established methodology used by the UK's Office for Science and Technology [OfST. Citation(2006). Transport – intelligent futures project. London: Author.] and how it set out to understand what transport provision might look like in 2055. The methodology used by the OfST study was modified and expanded by this study with a series of in-depth interviews with industry stakeholders to understand what the key drivers of change in the transport sector were in 2007 and would be in 2025. This was followed by the construction of two scenarios designed to look at two extreme cases of how transport and tourism would be interconnected to shape the destination and ability to access different types of tourism product and experience. These scenarios were then introduced to a workshop setting with key industry stakeholders to assess the reliability and validity of the scenarios. The paper also draws out wider implications for academic research of using scenario analysis in tourism, so that the value of this methodology can be understood and used more widely in appropriate settings. The study has to be viewed against the current tourism strategy for Scotland – the Tourism Framework for Change.

Notes

In view of the comprehensive nature of the literature reviewed in this book, this paper focuses on scenario planning rather than reviewing all the previous studies to date on transport and tourism, which are well documented in this text and several special issues of journals such as the Journal of Transport Geography. More detail on the importance of scenario planning to Scottish tourism can be gleaned from Scottish Tourism in the Future: Opportunities for Growth by Tourism Intelligence Scotland on http://www.tourism-intelligence.co.uk.

The potential uncertainties and changes that may occur in energy provision, transport provision, tourist travel and environmental determinants of tourism (e.g. climate change) among many other drivers of tourism led to the choice of long time horizon of 2025, since it seen as challenging and thought provoking to encourage the transport and tourism sector to think beyond the typical strategic timeline of 5 and 10 years or operating conditions (e.g. the length of a tender or franchise) within a Scottish context. This is not without its difficulties but with the long-term prosperity of Scottish tourism dependent upon the identification of key strategic and policy issues that need to be addressed for tourism to succeed. This study was undertaken in view of the dearth of available studies on transport and tourism in Scotland, the UK and wider afield.

This is a computer programme that captures and allows researchers to structure free-flow conversations and dialogue from a group setting into a series of hexagons that can then be grouped and simplified into a series of themes in much the same way that the Statistical Package SPSS and its use of Factor Analysis helps to reduce the complexity of data into a series of specific factors to summarise the data. The free thinking software is widely used in scenario planning exercises.

nVision is a subscription online service comprising of an online resource, telephone consultancy, seminars and workshops. It provides a comprehensive understanding of social, cultural and economic trends as well as focused analysis and raw data. The service is available at www.nvisiononline.co.uk and is provided by the Future Foundation.

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