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Abstract
The present article focuses on the long-term socioeconomic outcome of a correctional programme in Sweden, called KrAmi (n=62), using a systematic comparison with a control group of probation clients (n=51). The evaluation, which had a quasi-experimental design, was based on actual costs for each client (n=113) for a period of five years, from 1995 to 1999. The follow-up period was two years, during which the socioeconomic costs decreased step-wise for both groups, probation groups more so than programme groups. The deteriorations were 70–80% compared to the period before treatment. Rehabilitation to labour market, measured in pension points, was more successful for programme groups than for control groups. Thanks to this, as well as lower costs during the treatment period, the programme groups’ socioeconomic profitability, measured with a 15-year cost–benefit analysis (CBA), was greater than that of the control groups. The cost–effectiveness analysis (CEA) shows that the KrAmi groups are better off in work rehabilitation, depreciation time (one year compared with two and a half years for probation groups) and repayment ratio (14 SEK compared to 6 SEK for probation groups) although cost savings are greater for probation groups.
Artikeln fokuserar på de långsiktiga samhällsekonomiska effekterna av ett kriminalvårdsprogram i Sverige, KrAmi (n=62), vilket jämförts med resultaten för en frivårdsgrupp (n=51). Utvärderingen som använder kvasi-experimentell design, baserades på faktiska kostnader för varje klient (n=113) under en period av fem år, från 1995–1999. Uppföljningsperioden var två år och under denna tid minskade de samhälleliga kostnaderna stegvis för båda grupper, minskningarna var dock större för frivårdsgrupperna än för programgrupperna. Minskningarna var i storleksordningen 70–80% jämfört med perioden före behandling. Anknytning till arbetsmarknad mätt i pensionspoäng var dock bättre för programgrupper än för frivårdsgrupper. Tack vare detta samt lägre programkostnader, var den samhällsekonomiska vinsten, mätt via en 15-årig kostnads-/intäktsanalys (CBA) lite bättre för KrAmigrupperna än för frivårdsgrupperna. Kostnads-/effektivitetsanalysen (CEA) visar att KrAmiprogrammen har bättre arbetsmarknadsanknytning, avskrivningstid (ett år jämfört med frivårdens två och ett halvt år) samt återbetalning per investerad krona (14 SEK jämfört med frivårdens 6 SEK) men att frivårdsgrupperna minskar mest i samhälleliga kostnader.
Notes
1. Pension points are calculated according to the following formula: pensionable income—37,200 SEK)/37,200 = pension points (37,200 SEK is the basic amount—connected to the price index—for the year 1999).
2. It is difficult to speculate on future trends, and if we try to do so according to an EXPTREND analysis we can see that socioeconomic costs almost vanish after five years and pension points will be 100% after three-and-a-half years for a KrAmi client and after five-and-a-half years for a probation client. The EXPTREND calculations are, however, not considered in the socioeconomic profitability table above.