Revisiting aspiration and ability in international migration

Figures & data

Video abstract

Read the transcript

Watch the video on Vimeo

Figure 1. The aspiration/ability model. Reproduced from Carling (2002).

Table 1. A typology of survey questions on migration aspirations and related concepts.

Theoretical concept	Selected survey questions
1. Aspiration, desire or preference to migrate	‘Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?’ (OECD 2015); ‘Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to go abroad to live or work some time during the next five years, or would you prefer staying in [this country]?’ (Carling 2013); ‘Would you like to someday live in the United States?’ (Becerra et al. 2010); ‘Would you like to move from your current location to a different place at some point in the next 10 years?’ (Young Lives 2013)
2. Intentions or plans to migrate	‘Do you intend to migrate abroad?’ (van Dalen, Groenewold, and Schoorl 2005); ‘Are you planning to move to [preferred destination country] in the next 12 months, or not?’ (Gallup 2008); ‘Will you try to go to [preferred destination country] within the next five years?’ (Carling 2013)
3. Preparations for emigration	‘Have you done any preparation for this move (for example, applied for residency or visa, purchased the ticket, etc.)?’ ‘During the past five years, have you obtained a visa for going to Europe? Have you applied for one during the past five years?’ (Ersanilli, Carling, and de Haas 2011)
4. Consideration of migration	‘Have you and your family seriously considered moving to another country?’ (Wood et al. 2010); ‘Are you thinking about looking for work abroad after finishing your studies?’ (Kureková 2014); ‘Have you thought about moving in the future, outside the locality/community where you currently live?’ (Creighton 2013)
5. Conditional willingness to migrate	‘If someone were to give you the necessary papers for going to live or work in Europe, what would you do? Would you stay here or go to Europe?’ (Carling 2013); ‘If you could improve your work or living conditions, how willing or unwilling would you be to move outside your country?’ (Drinkwater 2002)
6. Necessity of migration	‘Do you think you will have to migrate to the United States?’ (Becerra et al. 2010); ‘I feel that I’m going to have to migrate to the U.S. when I graduate in order to find a job to support myself or my family’ (Becerra 2012)
7. Likelihood of migration	‘How likely do you think it is that you will live elsewhere in the future?’ (Bjarnason and Thorlindsson 2006); ‘Do you expect to be living in this city in two years?’ (Madhavan and Landau 2011); ‘In the next 12 months, are you likely or unlikely to move away from the city or area where you live?’ (Dustmann and Okatenko 2014)

Notes: References are primarily to publications that present results based on each question. Dustmann and Okatenko (2014) and OECD (2015) use data from the GWP. Carling (2013) and Ersanilli, Carling, and de Haas (2011) are publications from the EUMAGINE project.

Figure 2. Migration aspirations illustrated by the proportion of GWP respondents who would prefer to move permanently to another country. Based on data reported in OECD (2015) for the period 2007–2013. For exact question, see Table 1.

Table 2. Comparative display of survey results about migration aspirations.

	GWP (2007–2013) ‘Move permanently to another country’		EUMAGINE (2011) ‘Go abroad to live or work some time during the next five years’
	Age 15+	Age 15–24	Age 18–39	Age 18–24
Senegal	37	51	57–84	69–87
Morocco	29	45	48–66	57–71
Ukraine	21	37	40–54	41–61
Turkey	11	16	37–42	43–55

Source: OECD (2015) for GWP data; original data from the EUMAGINE survey.

Figure 3. Migration ability illustrated through a travel freedom index. The index estimates the percentage of countries to which a citizen of each country would be able to travel. It is based on the assumption that half of the countries where a visa is required (Henley & Partners 2015) can be accessed with a likelihood equal to the average nationality-specific acceptance rate for visa applications to the Schengen Area (European Commission 2016) and the United States (US Department of State 2016), while the other half remains inaccessible. The rationale for the latter point is that the greatest barriers are often posed by the requirements for launching a complete application in the first place.

Carling, J. 2002. “Migration in the age of Involuntary Immobility: Theoretical Reflections and Cape Verdean Experiences.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 28 (1): 5–42. doi: 10.1080/13691830120103912

 Google Scholar

OECD. 2015. Connecting with Emigrants: A Global Profile of Diasporas 2015. Paris: OECD.

 Google Scholar

Carling, J. 2013. Who Wants to Go to Europe? Results from a Large-Scale Survey on Migration Aspirations. PRIO Policy Brief, 2013/4. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

 Google Scholar

Becerra, D., M. Gurrola, C. Ayón, D. Androff, J. Krysik, K. Gerdes, L. Moya-Salas, and E. Segal. 2010. “Poverty and Other Factors Affecting Migration Intentions among Adolescents in Mexico.” Journal of Poverty 14 (1): 1–16. doi: 10.1080/10875540903272801

 Google Scholar

Young Lives. 2013. Young Lives Round 4 Survey Child Questionnaire. Oxford: University of Oxford.

 Google Scholar

van Dalen, H. P., G. Groenewold, and J. J. Schoorl. 2005. “Out of Africa: What Drives the Pressure to Emigrate?” Journal of Population Economics 18 (4): 741–778. doi: 10.1007/s00148-005-0003-5

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Gallup. 2008. World Poll Questions. Washington, DC: Gallup.

 Google Scholar

Ersanilli, E., J. Carling, and H. de Haas. 2011. Methodology for Quantitative Data Collection. EUMAGINE Project Paper, 6A. Antwerp: University of Antwerp.

 Google Scholar

Wood, C. H., C. L. Gibson, L. Ribeiro, and P. Hamsho-Diaz. 2010. “Crime Victimization in Latin America and Intentions to Migrate to the United States.” International Migration Review 44 (1): 3–24. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00796.x

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Kureková, L. M. 2014. “EU Accession and Youth Labour Mobility from Slovakia: Labour Market Perspective.” ECPR general conference, Glasgow, 3–6 September.

 Google Scholar

Creighton, M. J. 2013. “The Role of Aspirations in Domestic and International Migration.” Social Science Journal 50 (1): 79–88. doi: 10.1016/j.soscij.2012.07.006

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Drinkwater, S. 2002. Go West? Assessing the Willingness to Move from Central and Eastern European Countries. Discussion Paper in Economics. Surrey: University of Surrey.

 Google Scholar

Becerra, D. 2012. “The Impact of Anti-immigration Policies and Perceived Discrimination in the United States on Migration Intentions among Mexican Adolescents.” International Migration 50 (4): 20–32. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2435.2012.00770.x

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Bjarnason, T., and T. Thorlindsson. 2006. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? Migration Expectations Among Youth in Icelandic Fishing and Farming Communities.” Journal of Rural Studies 22 (3): 290–300. doi: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2005.09.004

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Madhavan, S., and L. B. Landau. 2011. “Bridges to Nowhere: Hosts, Migrants, and the Chimera of Social Capital in Three African Cities.” Population and Development Review 37 (3): 473–497. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00431.x

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Dustmann, C., and A. Okatenko. 2014. “Out-migration, Wealth Constraints, and the Quality of Local Amenities.” Journal of Development Economics 110: 52–63. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.008

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Henley & Partners. 2015. Visa Restrictions Index. London: Henley & Partners.

 Google Scholar

European Commission. 2016. Statistics on Short-Stay Visas Issued by the Schengen States. Brussels: DG Migration and Home Affairs.

 Google Scholar

US Department of State. 2016. Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics. Washington, DC: US Department of State.

 Google Scholar