Educational optimism in China: migrant selectivity or migration experience?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Unconditional Expectations to Attain Tertiary Education across Migrant Status and Migration Expectations. Source: Own calculations from CEPS 2013–2014. Percentages are weighted.

Figure 2. Differences in the expectation of attaining higher education by Migrant status.

Note: TE-IPWRA population means and 95% confidence intervals obtained from models shown in Table A3.

Figure 3. Effect of migration expectations on expectations of attaining higher education.

Note: Estimates and 95% confidence intervals obtained from LPM (school fixed effects) 1 and 2 in Table A4.

Figure 4. Expectations of attaining tertiary education by quintile of performance and intentions to migrate internationally.

Note: Estimates and 95% confidence intervals obtained from LPM 3 (school fixed effects) in Table A4.

Table A1. Summary and distribution of variables.

	Variable	N	Mean	S.d.	min	max
Educational expectations	Children	16,820	.65	.48	0	1
	Parents	16,830	.74	.44	0	1
Migrant status	Non-migrant	16,820	.83	.37	0	1
	Within province	16,820	.08	.27	0	1
	Across provinces	16,820	.09	.28	0	1
Migration expectations	Abroad	17,780	.15	.36	0	1
	Large city	9614	.57	.5	0	1
Hukou status	Agricultural	16,820	.54	.50	0	1
	Non-agricultural	16,820	.26	.44	0	1
	Residential	16,820	.20	.40	0	1
Local Hukou		16,820	.83	.37	0	1
Hukou at birth	Agricultural	16,820	.26	.44	0	1
	Non-agricultural	16,820	.15	.36	0	1
	Residential	16,820	.59	.49	0	1
Female		16,820	.50	.50	0	1
Grade		16,820	.48	.50	0	1
One child		16,820	.44	.50	0	1
Socioeconomic status	Low	16,820	.21	.41	0	1
	Medium	16,820	.73	.44	0	1
	High	16,820	.057	.23	0	1
Parental education	Primary	16,820	.09	.29	0	1
	Lower Secondary	16,820	.49	.5	0	1
	Upper Secondary	16,820	.29	.46	0	1
	Tertiary	16,820	.12	.32	0	1
Test scores		16,820	.03	.85	−2	2.7

Source: Own calculations from CEPS 2013–2014.

Table A2. Parental education, Hukou status, and socioeconomic status at the time of the survey by migrant status in CEPS 2013–2014.

		Primary	Lower sec	Upper Sec	Tertiary
Parental education	Non-migrant	13.83	54.46	24.19	7.52
	Migrated within province	13.78	53.26	26.50	6.45
	Migrated across provinces	14.63	55.55	24.57	5.25
		Agricult.	Non-agric.	Residential
Hukou status	Non-migrant	67.09	17.36	15.44
	Migrated within province	68.73	17.74	13.33
	Migrated across provinces	69.50	16.24	13.92
		Low	Medium	High
Socioeconomic status	Non-migrant	29.26	66.69	4.05
	Migrated within province	24.03	71.31	4.66
	Migrated across provinces	16.03	79.27	4.70
		No	Yes
Local Hukou status	Non-migrant	1.87	98.13
	Migrated within province	87.16	12.84
	Migrated across provinces	93.27	6.73

Source: Own calculations from CEPS 2013–2014. Percentages are weighted.

Table A3. Inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment treatment effects.

		(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
		Child	Child	Parents	Parents
Migrant status	Non-migrant household	0.65*		0.74*
		(0.01)		(0.01)
	Moved across/within province	0.67*		0.78*
		(0.02)		(0.02)
	Non-mobile		0.65*		0.74*
			(0.004)		(0.004)
	Moved across province		0.63*		0.70*
			(0.04)		(0.04)
Control group
Hukou status (ref. is non-agricultural)	Agricultural	0.11*	0.11*	0.11*	0.11*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	Residential	0.05*	0.04*	0.05*	0.05*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Local Hukou		−0.01	−0.02	−0.02	−0.02
		(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)
Controls	Female	0.12*	0.12*	0.07*	0.06*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	Grade	−0.02*	−0.02*	−0.05*	−0.05*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	One child	0.04*	0.05*	0.05*	0.06*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Socioeconomic status (ref. is low)	Medium	0.02*	0.02	−0.001	−0.001
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	High	0.05*	0.05*	0.01	0.01
		(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Test scores		0.13*	0.13*	0.12*	0.12*
		(0.01)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Constant		0.53*	0.54*	0.68*	0.69*
		(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.01)
Treated group
Hukou status	Non-agricultural	0.06*	0.05	0.09*	0.09*
(ref. is non-agricultural)		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
	Residential	−0.02	0.01	0.02	0.04
		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Local residential Hukou		0.02	−0.01	0.05*	−0.01
		(0.03)	(0.05)	(0.02)	(0.04)
Controls	Female	0.11*	0.13*	0.04*	0.04
		(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
	Grade	−0.01	−0.03	−0.06*	−0.08*
		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.02)
	One child	0.08*	0.07*	0.08*	0.05*
		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Socioeconomic status (ref. is low)	Medium	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.06
		(0.02)	(0.04)	(0.02)	(0.03)
	High	0.08*	0.14*	0.04	0.10*
		(0.04)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.05)
Test scores		0.14*	0.16*	0.12*	0.14*
		(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Constant		0.54*	0.48*	0.67*	0.63*
		(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.02)	(0.04)
Prediction of treatment
Hukou at birth (ref. is Agricultural)	Non-agricultural	−0.47*	−0.54*	−0.46*	−0.53*
		(0.06)	(0.08)	(0.06)	(0.08)
	Residential	−0.36*	−0.49*	−0.37*	−0.50*
		(0.07)	(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.09)
Parental education (ref. Primary)	Lower secondary	−0.048	−0.021	−0.053	−0.026
		(0.07)	(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.09)
	Upper secondary	−0.054	−0.13	−0.058	−0.14
		(0.08)	(0.10)	(0.08)	(0.10)
	Tertiary	−0.095	−0.20	−0.094	−0.19
		(0.10)	(0.14)	(0.10)	(0.14)
Constant		−1.42*	−2.09*	−1.42*	−2.09*
		(0.07)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.08)
N		16,820	16,820	16,830	16,830

Notes: Impact of Migrant status on child (1,2) and parental (3,4) expectations to attain tertiary education. Standard errors in parentheses.

*p < .05.

Table A4. LPM with school fixed effect.

		(1)	(2)	(3)
Migration expectations	Abroad	0.14*		0.22*
(ref. not moving)		(0.01)		(0.03)
	To a large city		0.14*
			(0.01)
Migrant status	Within province	0.002	0.04	−0.00
(ref. non-migrant)		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)
	Across provinces	0.01	0.04	0.01
		(0.02)	(0.04)	(0.02)
Hukou status	Agricultural	−0.04*		0.04*
(ref. Non-agricultural)		(0.01)		(0.01)
	Residential	−0.03*		−0.03*
		(0.01)		(0.01)
Local Hukou		−0.01	0.03	−0.01
		(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)
Controls	Female	0.11*	0.12*	0.11*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	Grade	−0.02*	−0.01	−0.01
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
	One child	0.032*	0.01	0.03*
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Socioeconomic status	Low	−0.01	0.02	−0.02
(ref. is high)		(0.02)	(0.025)	(0.02)
	Medium	−0.02	−0.01	−0.02
		(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)
Test scores		0.12*	0.14*
		(0.005)	(0.01)
Quintiles	2nd			0.11*
(ref. 1st)				(0.01)
	3rd			0.17*
				(0.01)
	4th			0.25*
				(0.01)
	5th			0.32*
				(0.01)
Interactions	2nd *abroad			−0.05
(ref. 1^st*abroad)				(0.03)
	3rd *abroad			−0.05
				(0.03)
	4th *abroad			−0.11*
				(0.03)
	5th *abroad			−0.13*
				(0.03)
Constant		0.61*	0.43*	0.44*
		(0.02)	(0.04)	(0.03)
Model info	Sigma(e)	0.44	0.46	0.44
	Sigma(u)	0.10	0.11	0.10
	N	17,780	9614	17,780
	F	114.1	86.8	74.2

Notes: Children’s expectations of attaining higher education by migration expectations. Standard errors in parentheses.

*p < .05.