Why do newcomers vote for a newcomer? Support for an immigrant party

Figures & data

Table 1. Polling Results of DENK among ethnic groups.

	Kantar	I&O	Etnobarometer	Etnobarometer
	December 2016 (%)	February 2017 (%)	February 2017 (%)	March 2017 (%)
Turkish-Dutch	37	32	40	45
Moroccan-Dutch	17	26	34	38
Surinamese-Dutch	<10	2	4	5
Dutch-Antillean	<10		3	4
Other immigrant groups	<10	5	–	–

Table 2. Descriptives and diagnostics.

Variable	Mean	Med.	SD	Min	Max	Ni	H	Lower	Higher
Religion	0.91	–	–	0	1	1	–	Not Muslim	Muslim
Higher educated	0.36	–	–	0	1	1	–	Lower or middle educated	Higher educated
Male	0.49	–	–	0	1	1	–	Female	Male
Year of birth	0.54	0.53	0.23	0	1	1	–	Older	Younger
Votes for DENK	0.02	–	–	0	1	1	–	Does not vote for DENK	Votes for DENK
Political cynicism	0.61	0.66	0.25	0	1	5	0.78	Low cynicism	High cynicism
Economic dimension	0.69	0.75	0.24	0	1	2	0.49	Right	Left
Moral dimension	0.71	0.75	0.29	0	1	1	–	Progressive	Conservative
Globalisation dimension	0.59	0.59	0.20	0	1	11	0.38	Open	Closed
Discrimination item	0.66	0.75	0.31	0	1	1	–	Anti-discrimination	Pro-discrimination
Smaller globalisation dimension	0.58	0.58	0.19	0	1	10	0.37	Open	Closed

Table 3. Results of regressions.

	Model 1	Model 2
Intercept	−0.86*** (0.21)	−0.72*** (0.21)
Religion ≠ Muslim	−23.13*** (0.23)	−23.35*** (0.23)
Education = Higher educated	−0.90** (0.37)	−1.05*** (0.37)
Year of birth	3.23*** (0.19)	3.25*** (0.20)
Gender = Male	−0.10 (0.07)	−0.15** (0.07)
Political cynicism	1.50*** (0.14)	1.28*** (0.15)
Morality dimension	−2.73*** (0.12)	−2.70*** (0.12)
Economic dimension	−1.46*** (0.14)	−1.52*** (0.14)
Globalisation dimension	−4.20*** (0.22)	–
Discrimination item	–	−3.02*** (0.26)
Smaller globalisation dimension	–	−1.26*** (0.10)
Education = Higher educated* Religion ≠ Muslim	−1.00*** (0.37)	−0.83** (0.37)
Year of birth* Religion ≠ Muslim	2.34*** (0.20)	2.32*** (0.21)
Gender = Male* Religion ≠ Muslim	18.65*** (0.09)	18.97*** (0.08)
Political cynicism* Religion ≠ Muslim	6.15*** (0.16)	6.41*** (0.17)
Morality dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	2.81*** (0.11)	2.79*** (0.12)
Economic dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	−1.43*** (0.15)	−1.44*** (0.15)
Globalisation dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	−6.67*** (0.27)	–
Discrimination item* Religion ≠ Muslim	–	−6.70*** (0.30)
Smaller globalisation* Religion ≠ Muslim dimension	–	0.09 (0.12)
N	1255	1255
AIC	158	159

Table

	Model 3	Model 4
Intercept	−2.61*** (1.46)	−2.39 (1.48)
Religion ≠ Muslim	−6.46*** (1.94)	−6.58*** (1.95)
Education = Higher Educated	0.27 (0.33)	0.17 (0.34)
Year of Birth	2.77* (1.45)	2.52* (1.47)
Gender = Male	0.46 (0.37)	0.46 (0.37)
Political Cynicism	1.64** (0.72)	1.45* (0.74)
Morality Dimension	−2.42*** (0.50)	−2.42*** (0.51)
Economic Dimension	−1.06* (0.63)	−1.06* (0.55)
Globalisation Dimension	−1.81* (1.02)	–
Discrimination Item	–	−1.06* (0.55)
Smaller Globalisation Dimension	–	−0.64 (1.11)
Education = Higher Educated* Religion ≠ Muslim	−0.07 (0.50)	0.02 (0.50)
Year of Birth* Religion ≠ Muslim	0.17 (1.78)	0.25 (1.80)
Gender = Male* Religion ≠ Muslim	−0.00 (0.53)	0.03 (0.53)
Political Cynicism* Religion ≠ Muslim	3.44*** (1.05)	3.53*** (1.06)
Morality Dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	1.38* (0.71)	1.38* (0.72)
Economic Dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	0.07 (0.94)	0.04 (0.94)
Globalisation Dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	−2.83** (1.43)	−
Discrimination Item* Religion ≠ Muslim	–	−0.23 (0.85)
Smaller Globalisation Dimension* Religion ≠ Muslim	–	−2.47 (1.65)
N	55690	55690
AIC	862	861

Table

#	Dimension	Items
1	Economic	Large multinational companies pay too little tax in the Netherlands.
2	Economic	The taxes for the highest incomes should be higher.
3	Morality	Older people who believe that their life is complete, should be allowed to commit suicide with professional assistance
4	Globalisation	More money should be spent on defense.
5	Globalisation	Dutch people who went to Syria to fight should be barred from returning to the Netherlands.
6	Globalisation	The Netherlands should leave the EU.
7	Globalisation	It should be a crime to be in the Netherlands without a residency permit.
8	Globalisation	The Netherlands should take in fewer refugees.
9	Globalisation	Dutch citizens should have the right to repeal decisions of the Dutch parliament via referendum.
10	Globalisation	Spending for the Dutch public broadcasting corporation should be reduced.
13	Globalisation	Spending on development aid should be reduced.
14	Globalisation	Particular social groups that the police believe to be more often involved in crimes should be subject to stricter surveillance.
15	Globalisation	The privacy of Dutch citizens should be limited to fight terrorism.
16	Globalisation	Judges should more often impose incarceration instead of community service.
17	Political Cynicism	Politicians do not care for the opinions of people like me.
18	Political Cynicism	Too often, politicians are out for their own advantage.
19	Political Cynicism	Politicians do not realise the impact of their decisions for people like me.
20	Political Cynicism	Politicians are too far from me to represent me.