Orbán’s political jackpot: migration and the Hungarian electorate

Figures & data

Figure 1. Changes in Fidesz’s public support, September 2014 to September 2015 (population at large, percentage).

Source: Közvéleménykutatók.hu. Note: Ipsos, Medián, Nézőpont and Századvég are Hungarian polling companies.

Figure 2. The most important issues facing the European Union, 2014–2018 (EU28 average, percent).

Source: Eurobarometer 89 (Spring 2018). Original question: What do you think are the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment?

Table 1. Mentions of immigration and terrorism among the two most important issues facing the EU, 2014–2018 (percent).

	Immigration – Hungary	Immigration – EU28	Terrorism – Hungary	Terrorism – EU28
Fall 2014	18%	24%	7%	11%
Spring 2015	43%	38%	20%	17%
Fall 2015	68%	58%	34%	25%
Spring 2016	67%	48%	47%	39%
Fall 2016	65%	45%	40%	32%
Spring 2017	60%	38%	55%	44%
Fall 2017	58%	39%	45%	38%
Spring 2018	56%	38%	38%	29%

Source: Eurobarometer 82–89. Original question: What do you think are the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment?

Table 2. Mentions of immigration and terrorism among the two most important issues facing Hungary, 2014–2018 (percentage).

	Immigration – Hungary	Immigration – EU28	Terrorism – Hungary	Terrorism – EU28
Fall 2014	3%	18%	1%	6%
Spring 2015	13%	23%	2%	7%
Fall 2015	34%	36%	8%	11%
Spring 2016	28%	28%	4%	16%
Fall 2016	30%	26%	8%	14%
Spring 2017	27%	22%	7%	19%
Fall 2017	28%	22%	7%	16%
Spring 2018	24%	21%	7%	10%

Source: Eurobarometer 82–89. Original question: What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment?

Figure 3. The fears of Hungarian voters in the final days of the 2018 election campaign (percentage).

Source: Boros and Laki (2018), field work: Závecz Research. Time of data collection: 28 March to 5 April 2018. Original question: Please select the three most important issues that you have thought about during the last month which made you apprehensive/fearful.

Table 3. The most frequently mentioned fears during the 2018 election campaign.

	Fear No. 1	Fear No. 2	Fear No. 3	Fear No. 4	Fear No. 5
Total population	Uncertainty/Instability	Illness	Financial situation	Vulnerability	Migration
Fidesz-KDNP voters	Uncertainty/Instability	Migration	Financial situation	Illness	Vulnerability
Jobbik-voters	Uncertainty/Instability	Financial situation	Illness	Migration	Vulnerability
MSZP-voters	Uncertainty/Instability	Illness	Vulnerability	Financial situation	Runaway world
Undecided voters	Uncertainty/Instability	Vulnerability	Illness	Migration	Runaway world
Budapest	Migration	Vulnerability	Uncertainty/Instability	Illness	War
County seat	Uncertainty/Instability	Financial situation	Illness	Runaway world	Vulnerability
Small city	Uncertainty/Instability	Illness	Financial situation	Vulnerability	Migration
Village	Uncertainty/Instability	Migration	Financial situation	Vulnerability	Illness

Source: Boros and Laki (2018), field work: Závecz Research. Time of data collection: 28 March to 5 April 2018. Original question: Please select the three most important issues that you have thought about during the last month which made you apprehensive/fearful.

Table 4. Voters’ most prevalent fears concerning Hungary’s future.

	Fear No. 1	Fear No. 2	Fear No. 3	Fear No. 4	Fear No. 5
Total population	State of healthcare	Poverty	Socio-economic disparities	There won’t be any pensions	Migrants will be coming into the country
Fidesz–KDNP voters	State of healthcare	Poverty	Migrants will be coming into the country	Socio-economic disparities	There won’t be any pensions
Jobbik voters	State of healthcare	Poverty	There won’t be any pensions	Socio-economic disparities	Quality of education
MSZP voters	State of healthcare	Poverty	Socio-economic disparities	There won’t be any pensions	Quality of education
Undecided voters	State of healthcare	Poverty	Socio-economic disparities	There won’t be any pensions	Quality of education

Source: Boros and Laki (2018), data collection: Závecz Research. Time of data collection: 28 March to 5 April 2018. Original question: Please select the three most important issues from the list below that you have thought about during the last month and which made you most concerned in thinking about Hungary’s future.

Table 5. How much does the following evoke a sense of fear in you: An ever-greater number of migrants moving to Hungary (all respondents, percentage).

		1 – Does not concern me at all	2	3	4	5 – Makes me very afraid	Don’t know / No answer
TOTAL		18%	17%	24%	17%	22%	2%
PARTY PREFERENCE	Fidesz–KDNP	17%	17%	21%	17%	26%	2%
	Jobbik	20%	14%	28%	19%	19%	%
	MSZP	24%	18%	20%	11%	22%	5%
	DK	15%	15%	32%	16%	19%	4%
	LMP	16%	12%	29%	20%	21%	2%
	Momentum	11%	23%	49%	17%	0%	0%
	Undecided	17%	19%	22%	19%	20%	3%
GENDER	Male	19%	17%	25%	15%	21%	2%
	Female	17%	17%	22%	19%	22%	2%
AGE	18–29	23%	16%	24%	17%	17%	3%
	30–39	16%	18%	22%	17%	22%	4%
	40–49	15%	11%	27%	20%	25%	3%
	50–59	21%	16%	24%	17%	21%	2%
	60 years or older	16%	22%	22%	16%	24%	1%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT	8 years of elementary education or less	15%	18%	22%	14%	28%	3%
	Vocational school	16%	16%	23%	19%	22%	3%
	Grammar school, vocational secondary school	22%	15%	23%	19%	19%	2%
	College, university	17%	21%	27%	18%	16%	1%
TYPE OF SETTLEMENT	Budapest	14%	22%	21%	14%	28%	1%
	County seat	16%	16%	25%	21%	21%	1%
	Town	20%	18%	24%	16%	18%	4%
	Village	19%	15%	24%	17%	23%	2%
REGION	Central Hungary	21%	19%	19%	14%	24%	2%
	Central Transdanubia	20%	20%	17%	16%	26%	1%
	Western Transdanubia	18%	18%	31%	27%	4%	2%
	Southern Transdanubia	21%	15%	25%	18%	19%	2%
	Northern Hungary	12%	16%	25%	21%	24%	3%
	Northern Great Plain	12%	17%	26%	14%	30%	1%
	Southern Great Plain	19%	14%	28%	16%	17%	5%

Source: Závecz Research. Time of survey: 28 March to 5 April 2018.

Boros, Tamás, and Gergely Laki. 2018. The Hungarian Fear. Budapest: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung – Policy Solutions.

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