Remembrances of things past: evidence from a twenty-year Kerala panel

Figures & data

Figure 1. Share of households with migrants and receiving remittances, by type of migrant and by religion, 1998–2018. (a) Share of households with migrants, by type of migrant. (b) Share of households with migrants, by religion, 1998–2018. (c) Share of households receiving remittances, by type of migrant. (d) Share of households receiving remittances, by religion, 1998–2018.

Figure 2. Average annual remittances, by origin, current and constant monetary values, 1998–2018.

Figure 3. Household position (by gender) and birth-order by marital status of current migrants, 1998–2018. (a) Household position of migrants, by gender, averages for the 1998–2018 period. (b) Birth-order and marital status of current migrants, 1998–2018.

Figure 4. Marital status and remittance patterns of migrants, at the time of migration and based on their current marital status, 1998–2018. (a) Marital status of current migrants at the time of migration, 1998–2018. (b) Remittance patterns by marital status of current migrants at the time of migration, 1998–2018. (c) Remittance behavior and current marital status of the migrant, 1998–2018.

Figure 5. Educational attainment, past economic activity and remittances, 1998–2018. (a) Educational attainment of migrants at the time of migration, 1998–2018. (b) Past economic activity in Kerala of current migrants, 1998–2018. (c) Remittance behavior and current economic activity outside Kerala of migrants, 1998–2018.

Figure 6. Twin peaks in remittance behavior with respect to the age of the household head, and with respect to the latter's employment status, 1998–2018. Blue lines are non-parametric smooths; gray shaded area corresponds to the 95% confidence interval. (a) Log total remittances and the age of the household head, 1998–2018. (b) Log total remittances and the age of the household head: household head not employed on the left, employed on the right, 1998–2018.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics corresponding to Tables 2 and 3.

	Mean	St. Dev.	within-hh St. Dev.
Household has an international migrant	0.230	0.421	0.290
Household has an international migrant, t−5	0.235	0.424	0.293
Household receives remittances	0.157	0.364	0.266
Household receives remittances, t−5	0.156	0.363	0.263
Female household head	0.226	0.419	0.271
Household head is employed	0.494	0.500	0.359
Age of household head	60.295	13.009	8.506
Migrant was married at time of migration	0.098	0.298	0.237
Number of male heirs	0.290	0.774	0.545
Asset-poor household	0.405	0.491	0.358
Log number adult males in household	1.300	0.448	0.290
Return migrant in household	0.227	0.419	0.283
Return migrant in household, t−5	0.229	0.421	0.304

Table 2. Dependent variable: household has an international migrant.

	OLS	FE	OLS	FE	GMM	FE	GMM
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Household has an international migrant, t−5			${0.419}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.051$	$-{0.003}^{\ast }$	$-0.046$	${0.015}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
			$\left(0.048\right)$	$\left(0.054\right)$	$\left(0.002\right)$	$\left(0.056\right)$	$\left(0.004\right)$
Female household head	${0.166}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.169}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.109}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.181}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.001}^{\ast }$	${0.181}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.009}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.050\right)$	$\left(0.051\right)$	$\left(0.032\right)$	$\left(0.056\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.055\right)$	$\left(0.003\right)$
Household head is employed	$-{0.090}^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.017$	$-{0.068}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.016$	$-0.001$	$-0.016$	$-{0.041}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.036\right)$	$\left(0.040\right)$	$\left(0.024\right)$	$\left(0.047\right)$	$\left(0.001\right)$	$\left(0.047\right)$	$\left(0.010\right)$
Age of household head	$-0.008$	$-0.001$	$-0.003$	$-0.003$	${0.006}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.003$	${0.004}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.008\right)$	$\left(0.006\right)$	$\left(0.006\right)$	$\left(0.008\right)$	$\left(0.001\right)$	$\left(0.008\right)$	$\left(0.001\right)$
Age of household head, squared	0.000	$-0.000$	0.000	$-0.000$	$-{0.000}^{\ast }$	$-0.000$	$-0.000$
	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$
Log number adult males in household	${0.270}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.286}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.238}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.352}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.000}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.351}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.022}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.044\right)$	$\left(0.047\right)$	$\left(0.039\right)$	$\left(0.059\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.059\right)$	$\left(0.005\right)$
Asset-poor household	${0.106}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.041	${0.085}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.036	${0.001}^{\ast \ast }$	0.035	${0.057}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.028\right)$	$\left(0.029\right)$	$\left(0.027\right)$	$\left(0.036\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.036\right)$	$\left(0.013\right)$
Return migrant in household	0.004	$-{0.177}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-{0.074}^{\ast \ast }$	$-{0.150}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-{0.003}^{\ast }$	$-{0.149}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.078}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.041\right)$	$\left(0.039\right)$	$\left(0.035\right)$	$\left(0.054\right)$	$\left(0.001\right)$	$\left(0.054\right)$	$\left(0.017\right)$
Return migrant in household, t−5						0.021	${0.055}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
						$\left(0.040\right)$	$\left(0.013\right)$
Adjusted $R^2$	0.127	0.449	0.291	0.458	$0.458$
Hansen J: $p-$value					0.967		0.730
AR2: $p-$value					0.705		0.681

${}^{\ast \ast \ast }p<0.01$; ${}^{\ast \ast }p<0.05$; ${}^{\ast }p<0.1$ Notes: Columns (1) and (3): OLS. Columns (2), (4) and (6): household-specific fixed effects. Standard errors, clustered at the taluk level in columns (1)–(4) and (6), in parentheses. Columns (5) and (7): Arellano and Bover (1995) first-differences and levels GMM estimation, with Hwang, Kang, and Lee (2022) double-corrected standard errors in parentheses. 242 households each observed five times at five year intervals, 1998–2008.

Table 3. Dependent variable: household receives remittances.

	OLS	FE	GMM	GMM	GMM
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Household receives remittances, t−5	${0.123}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.040$	${0.063}^{\ast }$	${0.131}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.077}^{\ast }$
	$\left(0.038\right)$	$\left(0.071\right)$	$\left(0.033\right)$	$\left(0.047\right)$	$\left(0.042\right)$
Household has an international migrant	${0.441}^{\ast \ast \ast }$		${0.467}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.067\right)$		$\left(0.067\right)$
Migrant was married at time of migration	0.118	${0.328}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.203}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.401}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.704}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.078\right)$	$\left(0.093\right)$	$\left(0.074\right)$	$\left(0.092\right)$	$\left(0.115\right)$
Number of male heirs	${0.082}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.179}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.082}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.198}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	${0.311}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.024\right)$	$\left(0.039\right)$	$\left(0.022\right)$	$\left(0.030\right)$	$\left(0.043\right)$
Number of male heirs * married at time of migration					$-{0.272}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
					$\left(0.057\right)$
Asset-poor household	$-{0.036}^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.008$	$-{0.024}^{\ast }$	$-0.011$	$-0.022$
	$\left(0.016\right)$	$\left(0.020\right)$	$\left(0.013\right)$	$\left(0.015\right)$	$\left(0.014\right)$
Household head is employed	$-{0.040}^{\ast \ast }$	$-{0.064}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-{0.030}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-{0.037}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-{0.029}^{\ast \ast }$
	$\left(0.018\right)$	$\left(0.025\right)$	$\left(0.011\right)$	$\left(0.013\right)$	$\left(0.013\right)$
Age of household head	$-0.001$	$-0.001$	$-{0.000}^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.000$	$-0.000$
	$\left(0.001\right)$	$\left(0.001\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$	$\left(0.000\right)$
Return migrant in household	${0.039}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.022	${0.040}^{\ast }$	${0.043}^{\ast }$	${0.039}^{\ast }$
	$\left(0.014\right)$	$\left(0.044\right)$	$\left(0.021\right)$	$\left(0.022\right)$	$\left(0.021\right)$
Adjusted $R^2$	0.590	0.519
Hansen J: $p-$value			0.001	0.002	0.002
AR2: $p-$value			0.660	0.739	0.425

${}^{\ast \ast \ast }p<0.01$; ${}^{\ast \ast }p<0.05$; ${}^{\ast }p<0.1$ Notes: Columns (1) and (3): OLS. Columns (2), (4) and (6): household-specific fixed effects. Standard errors, clustered at the taluk level in columns (1)–(4) and (6), in parentheses. Columns (5) and (7): Arellano and Bover (1995) first-differences and levels GMM estimation, with Hwang, Kang, and Lee (2022) double-corrected standard errors in parentheses. 242 households each observed five times at five year intervals, 1998–2008.

Arellano, Manuel, and Olympia Bover. 1995. “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics 68 (1): 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D.

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Hwang, Jungbin, Byunghoon Kang, and Seojeong Lee. 2022. “A Doubly Corrected Robust Variance Estimator for Linear GMM.” Journal of Econometrics 229 (2): 276–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.010.

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