Ambitious, misaligned, or uncertain? The occupational and educational aspirations of immigrant-origin youth in Germany

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary of hypotheses on immigrant-native gaps in occupational and educational Aspirations.

Hypothesis	Aspiration Combination	Hypothesized gap	Supporting theory	Especially affected groups
H1	Aligned high	More likely for immigrant-origin	Immigrant optimism	H1a: Turkish
			Expected discrimination	H1b: African, Asian, Turkish, first-generation
			Lack of information	H1c: First-generation
H2	Misaligned under (education > occupation)	More likely for immigrant-origin	Expected discrimination	H2a: African, Asian, Turkish, first-generation
			Lack of information	H2b: First-generation
H3	Misaligned over (education < occupation)	More likely for immigrant-origin	Lack of information	First-generation
H4	Uncertain occupational aspirations	More likely for immigrant-origin	Lack of information	First-generation
H5	Aligned low	More likely for immigrant-origin	Lack of information	First-generation
H6	Aligned low	Less likely for immigrant-origin	Immigrant optimism, Expected discrimination, Lack of information

Table 2. Descriptive statistics by national origin group.

	DEU	TUR	FSU	POL	EAS EUR	SOU EUR	ASIA	AFR	OTR
	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.
Immigrant status
Native	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
First generation	0	0.09	0.46	0.1	0.12	0.18	0.28	0.14	0.14
Second generation	0	0.67	0.44	0.31	0.3	0.22	0.48	0.21	0.17
2.5 generation +	0	0.23	0.11	0.59	0.58	0.59	0.23	0.65	0.69
Occ & edu aspirations
Aligned high	0.23	0.27	0.27	0.22	0.22	0.27	0.43	0.19	0.18
Misaligned under	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.12	0.11	0.09	0.1	0.11
Misaligned over	0.21	0.23	0.25	0.19	0.18	0.21	0.16	0.14	0.16
Aligned low	0.31	0.23	0.18	0.25	0.31	0.26	0.19	0.22	0.22
Uncertain	0.2	0.21	0.27	0.29	0.16	0.14	0.13	0.36	0.33
Occupational aspirations
Manager/professional/technician	0.44	0.5	0.52	0.41	0.41	0.48	0.58	0.33	0.34
Other occupations	0.36	0.29	0.21	0.3	0.44	0.38	0.29	0.32	0.34
Don’t know	0.2	0.21	0.27	0.29	0.16	0.14	0.13	0.36	0.33
Educational aspirations
Tertiary	0.37	0.41	0.46	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.59	0.43	0.48
Non-tertiary	0.61	0.58	0.52	0.59	0.56	0.57	0.4	0.52	0.49
Don’t know	0.02	0.01	0.01	0	0.02	0	0	0.04	0.03
Gender
Female	0.47	0.54	0.44	0.58	0.46	0.44	0.46	0.52	0.63
Parental education
Primary or less	0.02	0.24	0.04	0.08	0.08	0.12	0.22	0.16	0.13
Secondary	0.77	0.68	0.65	0.73	0.63	0.72	0.49	0.54	0.45
Tertiary	0.21	0.08	0.3	0.18	0.29	0.16	0.29	0.3	0.41
Parental occupation
Parental occupation (ISEI)	52.37	32.69	42.57	43.72	49.16	41.37	43.84	49.13	54.66
Tests
Cognitive test (wave 1)	20.06	18.12	19.5	20.16	18.91	19.4	19.6	18.45	19.46
Language test (wave 1)	13.57	8.59	11.81	12.23	11.88	11.9	11.15	12.3	12.87
School math grades
Passing marks	0.26	0.35	0.28	0.24	0.34	0.34	0.37	0.36	0.31
Middle marks	0.39	0.42	0.39	0.35	0.33	0.28	0.27	0.41	0.38
Top marks	0.35	0.23	0.32	0.41	0.33	0.38	0.36	0.23	0.31
School language grades
Passing marks	0.15	0.19	0.2	0.14	0.16	0.15	0.2	0.18	0.15
Middle marks	0.47	0.54	0.51	0.45	0.52	0.4	0.42	0.47	0.41
Top marks	0.38	0.27	0.29	0.41	0.33	0.45	0.38	0.35	0.44
School track
Lower track	0.08	0.31	0.15	0.15	0.25	0.22	0.15	0.12	0.2
Intermediate track	0.32	0.26	0.41	0.29	0.24	0.36	0.31	0.27	0.2
Upper track	0.32	0.18	0.29	0.3	0.26	0.14	0.39	0.27	0.43
Comprehensive school	0.28	0.26	0.14	0.26	0.25	0.28	0.15	0.34	0.17
Observations	1915	590	220	154	208	184	153	117	145

Notes: Number of cases unweighted, all other estimates are weighted.

Source: Waves 1–2 of the CILS4EU German data, own calculations.

Table 3. Immigrant-native gaps in aspiring to professional/managerial/technician jobs by migrant origin group.

	M1		M2		M3
Origin (ref: Native students)
Turkey	0.051	(0.032)	0.133***	(0.033)	0.159***	(0.033)
FSU	0.083*	(0.037)	0.104**	(0.037)	0.106**	(0.036)
Poland	−0.052	(0.043)	−0.019	(0.043)	−0.025	(0.042)
Eastern Europe	−0.033	(0.044)	−0.029	(0.043)	0.013	(0.042)
South Europe	0.046	(0.047)	0.089	(0.047)	0.117*	(0.046)
Asia	0.145**	(0.051)	0.169***	(0.051)	0.160**	(0.050)
Africa	−0.124*	(0.052)	−0.118*	(0.051)	−0.093	(0.050)
Other	−0.129**	(0.044)	−0.153***	(0.044)	−0.141***	(0.043)
Female	0.163***	(0.016)	0.157***	(0.016)	0.132***	(0.016)
Parental edu (ref: Primary or less)
Secondary			0.032	(0.036)	−0.010	(0.035)
Tertiary			0.137***	(0.041)	0.060	(0.040)
Parental occupation (ISEI)			0.003***	(0.000)	0.001*	(0.000)
Tests
Cognitive test (wave 1)					0.010***	(0.002)
Language test (wave 1)					0.003	(0.002)
Math grades (ref: Passing marks)
Middle marks					0.060**	(0.020)
Top marks					−0.011	(0.022)
Language grades (ref: Passing marks)
Middle marks					0.075**	(0.023)
Top marks					0.095***	(0.025)
School track (ref: lower)
Intermediate track					0.117***	(0.028)
Upper track					0.258***	(0.031)
Comprehensive school					0.072**	(0.028)
Observations	3686		3686		3686
R-squared	0.032		0.064		0.115

Notes: Estimates obtained from linear probability models using survey weights combined with generated weights to account for attrition between waves 1 and 2. High occupational aspirations are defined as aiming for managerial, professional, or technician occupations (ISCO 1, 2 and 3 major groups), as opposed to aiming for other occupations or having uncertain aspirations. Standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.05 ** p < 0.01 *** p < 0.001

Source: Waves 1 and 2 of the CILS4EU German data, own calculations.

Figure 1. Immigrant-native gaps in occupational and educational aspirations by origin group (left) and immigrant generation (right).

Notes: Estimates obtained from a multinomial logistic model controlling for students’ gender, cognitive and language test grades, math and German school marks, school track in wave 1 of the survey, and parental educational and occupational attainment. The model was run using survey weights combined with generated waves to account for attrition between waves 1 and 2. For a definition of the outcomes in each panel, consult the Data and Methods section of the paper. Source: Waves 1 and 2 of the CILS4EU German data, own calculations.

Table 4. Predicting immigrant-native gaps in educational attainment.

	A: Abitur attainment			B: Tertiary enrollment
	M1	M2	M3	M1	M2	M3
Origin (ref: Native students)
Turkey	−0.070 (0.037)	0.078* (0.035)	0.037 (0.035)	−0.118** (0.039)	0.079* (0.032)	0.029 (0.032)
FSU	0.085 (0.043)	0.101** (0.039)	0.075 (0.039)	0.023 (0.045)	0.034 (0.036)	0.004 (0.036)
Poland	0.018 (0.048)	0.017 (0.042)	0.004 (0.042)	0.060 (0.052)	0.075 (0.042)	0.057 (0.041)
Eastern Europe	−0.099* (0.048)	−0.033 (0.042)	−0.041 (0.042)	−0.025 (0.052)	0.014 (0.042)	−0.001 (0.041)
South Europe	0.007 (0.053)	0.109* (0.047)	0.081 (0.046)	−0.048 (0.057)	0.059 (0.045)	0.022 (0.045)
Asia	0.168** (0.059)	0.163** (0.053)	0.129* (0.052)	0.097 (0.062)	0.076 (0.050)	0.040 (0.050)
Africa	−0.082 (0.063)	−0.004 (0.055)	−0.020 (0.055)	0.008 (0.073)	0.070 (0.059)	0.048 (0.058)
Other	−0.070 (0.051)	−0.089* (0.045)	−0.095* (0.045)	0.093 (0.058)	0.027 (0.047)	0.019 (0.046)
Female		0.107*** (0.017)	0.090*** (0.017)		0.027 (0.017)	0.010 (0.016)
Parental edu (ref: Primary or less)
Secondary		−0.016 (0.037)	−0.014 (0.036)		−0.052 (0.036)	−0.052 (0.036)
Tertiary		0.063 (0.042)	0.037 (0.042)		0.073 (0.042)	0.040 (0.041)
Parental occupation (ISEI)		0.000 (0.000)	0.000 (0.000)		0.002*** (0.000)	0.002*** (0.000)
Tests (wave 1)
Cognitive test		0.001 (0.003)	−0.001 (0.003)		0.007** (0.002)	0.005* (0.002)
Language test		0.011*** (0.002)	0.009*** (0.002)		0.006* (0.002)	0.004 (0.002)
Math grades (ref: Passing marks)
Middle marks		0.032 (0.021)	0.021 (0.021)		0.044* (0.020)	0.029 (0.020)
Top marks		0.068** (0.023)	0.055* (0.023)		0.148*** (0.021)	0.134*** (0.021)
Language grades (ref: Passing marks)
Middle marks		−0.010 (0.024)	−0.024 (0.024)		0.066** (0.024)	0.051* (0.023)
Top marks		−0.028 (0.027)	−0.053* (0.027)		0.114*** (0.026)	0.090*** (0.025)
School track (ref: lower)
Intermediate		0.229*** (0.029)	0.198*** (0.029)		0.171*** (0.029)	0.136*** (0.029)
Upper track		0.532*** (0.033)	0.451*** (0.034)		0.513*** (0.033)	0.426*** (0.034)
Comprehensive school		0.112*** (0.028)	0.095*** (0.028)		0.086** (0.029)	0.066* (0.029)
Teenage aspirations (ref: Aligned low)
Aligned high			0.205*** (0.027)			0.240*** (0.026)
Misaligned under			0.090* (0.037)			0.108** (0.035)
Misaligned over			0.066** (0.024)			0.069** (0.023)
Uncertain			0.148*** (0.025)			0.139*** (0.024)
Observations	2950	2950	2950	2523	2523	2523
R-squared	0.006	0.224	0.239	0.004	0.336	0.359

Notes: Estimates obtained from linear probability models using survey weights combined with generated waves to account for attrition. For a definition of the teenage aspirations, consult the Data and Methods section of the paper. Source: Waves 1–8 of the CILS4EU German data, own calculations.

Figure 2. The association of teenage aspirations with Abitur attainment, by origin group.

Notes: Predicted probabilities with 95% confidence intervals obtained from logit models controlling for students’ country of origin, gender, cognitive and language test grades, math and German school marks, school track in wave 1 of the survey, and parental educational and occupational attainment, and interacting their country of origin with their occupational and educational aspirations. For a definition of the teenage aspirations, consult the Data and Methods section of the paper. Source: Waves 1–8 of the CILS4EU German data, own calculations.