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Diabetes

The PRIME Type 2 Diabetes Model: a novel, patient-level model for estimating long-term clinical and cost outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

ORCID Icon, , , ORCID Icon &
Pages 393-402 | Received 27 Aug 2021, Accepted 25 Jan 2022, Published online: 21 Mar 2022

Figures & data

Figure 1. PRISMA flow diagram illustrating the systematic literature review study selection process.

Figure 1. PRISMA flow diagram illustrating the systematic literature review study selection process.

Figure 2. Schematic diagram of the PRIME T2D Model. *Model averaging is used in this controller; Denotes complications with an increased risk of mortality in the year of complication onset and in subsequent years; Denotes complications with an increased risk of mortality associated with a history of this complication. Abbreviations. QoL, quality of life; RNG, random number generator; SPSL, severe pressure sensation loss.

Figure 2. Schematic diagram of the PRIME T2D Model. *Model averaging is used in this controller; †Denotes complications with an increased risk of mortality in the year of complication onset and in subsequent years; ‡Denotes complications with an increased risk of mortality associated with a history of this complication. Abbreviations. QoL, quality of life; RNG, random number generator; SPSL, severe pressure sensation loss.

Figure 3. Cost-effectiveness scatterplot from the example anlaysis of intensive versus conventional multifactorial management in the Steno-2 trial. £, 2019 Pounds Sterling (GBP); QALY, quality adjusted life years. The scatterplot shows data for 1,000,000 simulated patients, with each point representing the mean from 5,000 patients. The ellipsis indicates points inside the 95% credible interval for incremental values.

Figure 3. Cost-effectiveness scatterplot from the example anlaysis of intensive versus conventional multifactorial management in the Steno-2 trial. £, 2019 Pounds Sterling (GBP); QALY, quality adjusted life years. The scatterplot shows data for 1,000,000 simulated patients, with each point representing the mean from 5,000 patients. The ellipsis indicates points inside the 95% credible interval for incremental values.

Table 1. Summary health economic outcomes in the example analysis of intensive versus conventional multifactorial management in the Steno-2 trial.

Figure 4. Scatterplot of the PRIME T2D Model validation analysis. Each point on the graph represents a cumulative incidence value from the PRIME T2D Model and the corresponding published study value for validation (expressed as cumulative incidence of a given diabetes-related complication). Values from the PRIME T2D Model are plotted as the y-axis and the corresponding cumulative incidence values from the published study on the x-axis. A perfect match would see all points on the y = x line.

Figure 4. Scatterplot of the PRIME T2D Model validation analysis. Each point on the graph represents a cumulative incidence value from the PRIME T2D Model and the corresponding published study value for validation (expressed as cumulative incidence of a given diabetes-related complication). Values from the PRIME T2D Model are plotted as the y-axis and the corresponding cumulative incidence values from the published study on the x-axis. A perfect match would see all points on the y = x line.

Table 2. Results from PRIME T2D Model validation exercises.

Supplemental material

Supplemental Material

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