Risk communication and the willingness to follow evacuation instructions in a natural disaster

Abstract

Experts have predicted that some time in the future, a rockslide in one of Norway's narrow fjords will produce a tsunami that may run up above the sea level as high as 82 m (269 feet). This study explores the willingness of the public to follow evacuation instructions before a natural disaster with a high probability, but unknown timeframe. Parts of the studied area were involved in a similar disaster in 1934. For this study, all residents (875) 18 years or older in four threatened communities received a questionnaire; 382 (43.6%) responded. The aim was to determine to what extent socio-demographic variables, individual differences, and the relationships among experts and residents determine a willingness to follow recommended evacuation instructions during emergencies. The survey found that those who reported a willingness to follow instructions lived in areas with a disaster history. Often they had university graduate degrees, good relationships with experts, and found risk information useful. Gender and individual differences did not separately contribute significantly to willingness to evacuate.

Keywords:

• crisis communication
• risk
• risk assessment
• trust
• distrust
• evacuation instructions
• tsunami

Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out with the support of Norwegian Public Roads Administration Climate and Transport Project, Norwegian Public Roads Administration Central Region, and the Åknes/Tafjord project.