Predictive Model of Suicide Risk in Young People: The Mediating Role of Alcohol Consumption

Figures & data

TABLE 1. Indicators of mental health events: alcohol consumption, depression, hopelessness and suicidal risk.

Variables	Risk indicators	Total		Women		Men
		n	%	n	%	n	%
Alcohol consumption	Social consumption	1,170	84.8	822	87.3	348	79.6
	Risk consumption	117	8.5	76	8.1	41	9.4
	Abuse or harmful use	75	5.4	38	4.0	37	8.5
	Alcohol dependence	17	1.2	6	0.6	11	2.5
Depression	No depression	896	65.0	599	63.6	297	68.0
	Mild	262	19.0	190	20.2	72	16.5
	Moderate	188	13.6	128	13.6	60	13.7
	Severe	33	2.4	25	2.7	8	1.8
Hopelessness	None	1,024	74.3	705	74.8	319	73.0
	Mild	265	19.2	171	18.2	94	21.5
	Moderate	71	5.1	51	5.4	20	4.6
	Severe	19	1.4	15	1.6	4	0.9
Anxiety	Very low	1,047	75.9	702	74.5	345	78.9
	Moderate	226	16.4	160	17.0	66	15.1
	Severe	106	7.7	80	8.5	26	5.9
Suicide risk	No risk	1,062	77.0	719	76.3	343	78.5
	Suicide risk	317	23.0	223	23.7	94	21.5

TABLE 2. Differences between sexes based on alcohol abuse, suicide risk and the variables of depression, hopelessness and anxiety.

Variable	Women (n = 942)				Men (n = 437)				z	p	n
	M	SD	Rp	Me	M	SD	Rp	Me
CAGE	1.47	0.85	661.80	1.0	1.75	1.09	750.79	1.00	−4.639	0.000	0.016
SR	3.47	2.68	709.01	3.0	3.14	2.78	649.03	2.00	−2.622	0.009	0.005
BHS	2.91	3.22	701.78	2.0	2.65	2.95	664.61	2.00	−1.636	0.102	0.002
BDI	9.04	8.22	702.46	7.0	8.26	7.77	663.15	6.00	−1.708	0.088	0.002
BAI	15.67	11.76	714.59	13.0	13.67	11.37	636.99	11.00	−3.369	0.001	0.008

Note: CAGE: Alcohol abuse; SR: suicide risk; BHS: hopelessness; BDI: depression; BAI: anxiety.

TABLE 3. Differences between young people based on alcohol consumption and the variables of suicide risk, hopelessness, depression, and anxiety.

Association variables	Abusive alcohol consumption CAGE	M	SD	Ar	Me	H^(gl)	p
Suicide risk	Social consumption	3.24	2.66	673.03	3.00	22.119 ^(3)	0.000
	Risk consumption	3.74	2.86	738.82	3.00
	Abuse or harmful use	4.11	2.75	803.40	4.00
	Alcohol dependence	6.12	3.35	1,021.97	5.00
Hopelessness	Social consumption	2.72	3.02	678.55	2.00	13.893 ^(3)	0.003
	Risk consumption	3.09	3.69	693.71	2.00
	Abuse or harmful use	3.84	3.35	850.69	3.00
	Alcohol dependence	4.00	4.61	743.68	2.00
Depression	Social consumption	8.43	7.81	673.55	6.00	21.461 ^(3)	0.000
	Risk consumption	9.66	8.73	731.67	7.00
	Abuse or harmful use	11.21	8.93	806.84	10.00
	Alcohol dependence	17.12	11.73	1,019.74	14.00
Anxiety	Social consumption	14.62	11.55	674.07	12.00	21.394 ^(3)	0.000
	Risk consumption	15.90	11.67	730.46	13.00
	Abuse or harmful use	18.15	12.63	796.77	15.00
	Alcohol dependence	24.41	9.94	1,036.88	23.00

Note: M: Media; DS: standard deviation; Ar: average range; Me: median; H: H of Kruskal–Wallis; df: degree of freedom; p: statistical significance.

TABLE 4. Spearman's correlation coefficient (Rho) between alcohol abuse suicide risk and the variables of depression, hopelessness and anxiety.

Correlations	CAGE	RS	BHS	BDI	BAI
CAGE		.127**	.091**	.111**	.119**
RS			.434**	.656**	.470**
BHS				.488**	.274**
BDI					.516**
BAI

**The correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (bilateral).

Note: CAGE: Abusive alcohol consumption; RS: suicidal risk; BHS: hopelessness; BDI: depression; BAI: anxiety.

TABLE 5. Goodness-of-fit statistics of the structural models for predicting risk and suicide attempt.

Model	${\chi }^2$	df	χ²/df	IFI	CFI	NFI	TLI	GFI	AGFI	RMSEA
1	11.893	1	11.893	0.980	0.980	0.978	0.796	0.997	0.948	0.09
2	0.523*	1	0.523	1,007	1.0	0.999	1.01	1.0	0.998	0.000
Metric invariance by sex (men/women) of model 2
Without restrictions	0.892*	2	0.446	1.002	1.0	.998	1.021	1.0	0.996	0.000
Structural weights	20.487*	8	2.561	0.977	0.997	.963	0.942	.994	9.78	0.034
Structural covariances	33,553	14	2.397	0.964	0.964	.940	0.948	.990	0.979	0.032
Metric invariance by city (Manizales/Medellín) of model 2
Without restrictions	1,253*	2	0.627	1.001	1.0	.998	1.014	1.0	.995	.000
Structural weights	12,861*	8	1.608	.991	.991	.976	.977	.996	.986	0.021
Structural covariances	72,927	14	5.209	.888	.886	.865	.838	.979	.955	0.055

*p ≥ 0.05

Figure 1. Structural equation model of suicide risk and the mediating role of alcohol consumption. Note: *p < 0.01; **p < 0.001.

TABLE 6. Total direct and indirect standardized effects of the predictor variables on the response variables.

Effects	Alcohol consumption (mediator)			Suicide risk
	Value β	CI 95%		Value β	CI 95%
		Lower	Upper		Lower	Upper
Anxiety
Total	0.068**	0.012	0.128	0.159***	0.113	0.207
Direct	0.068**	0.012	0.128	0.156***	0.11	0.204
Indirect	–––	–––	–––	0.003*	0.00	0.008
Depression
Total	0.10**	0.03	0.163	0.524***	0.471	0.576
Direct	0.10**	0.03	0.163	0.52***	0.467	0.573
Indirect	–––	–––	–––	0.004*	0.00	0.01
Hopelessness
Total	–––	–––	–––	0.148***	0.101	0.194
Direct	–––	–––	–––	0.148***	0.101	0.194
Indirect	–––	–––	–––	–––	–––	–––
alcohol consumption
Total	–––	–––	–––	0.044*	0.006	0.083
Direct	–––	–––	–––	0.044*	0.006	0.083
Indirect	–––	–––	–––	–––	–––	–––

Note: *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.