Policy Capacity Matters for Education System Reforms: A Comparative Study of Two Brazilian States

Figures & data

Figure 1. Theoretical framework

Source: authors (building on various insights from the existing literature).

Table 1. Timeline of education reforms in CE and RN

Year	State	Reform
1992	CE	Introduced Spaece assessment as the state equivalent to Saeb at the federal level
1995	CE	Established regional unit (CREDE) to support municipalities in implementing state programs
1999	RN	Recreated regional unit (DIRED) after four years of disclosure
2004	CE	CCEAE set up by a member of state legislative assembly in partnership with and supported by a wide range of stakeholders
2007	CE	Expanded Spaece into Spaece-Alfa to also cover literacy evaluation; Launched PAIC to improve literacy (and later other subjects) in primary education; Redesigned formula of ICMS fiscal transfer to put highest weight on education performance
2009	CE	Introduced Escola Nota 10 to reward and encourage the sharing of good practices at the school level.
2016	RN	Introduced SIMAIS as the state-level student assessment (discontinued in 2020)

Source: Compiled by the authors.

Table 2. Variations of policy capacity in CE and RN

Dimensions of policy capacity		CE	RN
Analytical	Attitude toward data	Proactively absorbed as signaling severity of issues	Seen as presenting negative picture only
	Availability of expertise	Analytical and evaluative apparatus comprised of multidisciplinary experts or experienced professionals as key actors behind the design of a comprehensive data infrastructure	Educational bureaucracy lacks systematic process and criteria to hire qualified staff; external expertise sought but never seriously engaged and absorbed
Operational	Solutions to the problem of illiteracy	Targeted school education backed by insights generated through the data collected and analyzed	Targeted adult education
	Use of policy instruments	Appropriate and adaptive use of organizational and financial instruments	Approached decentralization as giving greater autonomy to state schools only; municipal schools neglected
Political	Political commitment	Reform leaders voted into state office from a turnaround municipality, instilling confidence in and inspiring other municipal leaders	High level of political turbulence increased turnover in official positions and chances for political accommodation
	Stakeholder engagement and alignment	Facilitated by ICMS redesign: allowing mayors at the municipalities to use funds freely with no restrictions that it has to be spent on education; Contributions from non-state actors incorporated and welcomed	State sees municipalities as competitors in receiving funds; idea of reform not supported by influential stakeholders; Contributions from non-state actors not taken on board

Source: Compiled by authors.

Table A1. Educational outcomes, socioeconomic indicators and resource levels in CE and RN

	CE	RN
Educational outcomes
Ideb results
2005 (Brazil average: 3.6)	2.8	2.5
2013 (Brazil average: 4.9)	5.9	4.0
2019 (Brazil average: 5.7)	6.3	4.7
Literacy rate (2016)
Percentage of students having sufficient level of reading skills (Brazil average: 45.3)	54.8	32.4
Percentage of students having sufficient level of writing skills (Brazil average: 66.2)	70.7	59.2
Change in enrollment rates (2000–2020)
Decline in government schools	46%	43%
Increase in private schools	23%	47%
Socioeconomic indicators
Population (2020)	9.1 million	3.5 million
Number of municipalities (2020)	184	167
Human Development Index (HDI) (2017)	0.735	0.731
Variations of HDI in municipalities	0.540–0.754	0.530–0.766
General and education-specific resources
GDP per capita, national ranking (2017)	R$16,400/US$4,954, 23rd	R$18,300/US$5,528, 19th
Total number of state public servants (2019)	124,610,000	60,980,000
State public servants/1,000 inhabitants (2019)	13.6	17.6
Student–teacher ratio in public basic education (2018)	18.3	18.8
Annual public expenditure per student in public basic education, national ranking (2015)	R$3,801, 22nd	R$4,140, 18th

Source: Compiled by authors from https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/; http://ipeadata.gov.br/; http://ideb.inep.gov.br/resultado/home.seam?cid=321762; http://ana.inep.gov.br/ANA/, among others. A complete list of Ideb results from 2005 to 2019 is available in Table A4.

Table A2. Policy documents at federal and state levels of Brazil, 1988–2020

Level	Year	Document title in Portuguese	Acronym in Portuguese	English translation	Category	Source
Federal	1988	Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil	CF 1988	Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil	Legislation	http://www.stf.jus.br/arquivo/cms/legislacaoConstituicao/anexo/brazil_federal_constitution.pdf
	1996	Lei n° 9.424/1996. Dispõe sobre o Fundo de Manutenção e Desenvolvimento do Ensino Fundamental e de Valorização do Magistério. Revogado pela Lei n° 11.494/2007	FUNDEF	Law No. 9,424/1996. Regulates the Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Elementary Education and the Valorization of Teaching (FUNDEF). Revoked by Law No. 11.494/2007	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/leis/l9424.htm
	1996	Lei n° 9.394, de 20 de dezembro de 1996. Estabelece as diretrizes e bases da educação nacional	LDB	Law No. 9,394/1996. Establishes the guidelines and bases for national education	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/leis/l9394.htm
	2004	Lei n° 10.836/2004. Cria o Programa Bolsa Família e dá outras providências	Bolsa-Família	Law No. 10,836/2004. Establishes the Bolsa Família Program and takes other measures	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2004-2006/2004/lei/l10.836.htm
	2005	Ministério da Educação. Portaria n° 931, de 21 de março de 2005. Institui o Sistema de Avaliação da Educação Básica	SAEB	Ministerial Ordinance No. 931/2005. Establishes the Basic Education Assessment System (SAEB)	Policy guidance	https://download.inep.gov.br/educacao_basica/prova_brasil_saeb/legislacao/Portaria931_NovoSaeb.pdf
	2007	Lei n° 11.494, de 20 de junho de 2007. Regulamenta o Fundo de Manutenção e Desenvolvimento da Educação Básica e de Valorização dos Profissionais da Educação	FUNDEB	Law No. 11,494/2007. Regulates the Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Basic Education and the Valorization of Education Professionals (FUNDEB)	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_Ato2007-2010/2007/Lei/L11494.htm
	2007	Ministério da Educação. Portaria Normativa n° 10, de 24 de abril de 2007. Avaliação de Alfabetização Provinha Brasil	Provinha Brasil	Ministerial Ordinance No. 10/2007. Establishes the Literacy Assessment “Provinha Brasil”	Policy guidance	https://download.inep.gov.br/educacao_basica/provinha_brasil/legislacao/2007/provinha_brasil_portaria_normativa_n10_24_abril_2007.pdf
	2009	Emenda Constitucional n° 59, de 11 de novembro de 2009. Obrigatoriedade do ensino de quatro a dezessete anos	EC 59	Constitutional Amendment No. 59. Mandatory education 4–17 years	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/constituicao/emendas/emc/emc59.htm
	2012	Medida Provisória n° 586, de 2012. Pacto Nacional pela Alfabetização na Idade Certa	PNAIC	Provisional Measure No. 586. National Pact for Literacy at the Right Age	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2011-2014/2012/mpv/586.htm#:~:text=1%C2%BA%20Esta%20Medida%20Provis%C3%B3ria%20disp%C3%B5e,fundamental%20da%20educa%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20b%C3%A1sica%20p%C3%BAblica%2C
	2014	Lei n° 13.005/2014. Aprova o Plano Nacional de Educação	PNE	Law No. 13.005/2014. Approves the National Education Plan	Legislation	http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2011-2014/2014/lei/l13005.htm
	2017	Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira – CONOF. Câmara dos Deputados. Estudo técnico n° 24. Proposta de Aprimoramento para a Implantação do Custo Aluno Qualidade (CAQ)	CONOF	Budget Consulting and Financial Inspection – CONOF. Chamber of Deputies. Technical Study No. 24. Improvement Proposal for the Implementation of the Student Quality Cost (CAQ)	Policy report	https://www2.camara.leg.br/atividade-legislativa/comissoes/comissoes-temporarias/especiais/55a-legislatura/pec-015-15-torna-permanente-o-fundeb-educacao/documentos/outros-documentos/estudo-da-consultoria-de-orcamento-da-camara-dos-deputados
	2017	Sistema de Contas Regionais – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística	IBGE	Regional Accounts System – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics	Policy report	https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv101679_informativo.pdf
	2020	Índice de Desenvolvimento da Educação Básica	Ideb	Basic Education Development Index	Policy report	https://download.inep.gov.br/educacao_basica/portal_ideb/o_que_e_o_ideb/Nota_Tecnica_n1_concepcaoIDEB.pdf
	2020	Censo da Educação Básica 2020 – Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais Anísio Teixeira	Censo 2020 INEP	Basic Education Census year 2020 – National Institute of Educational Studies and Educational Research Anísio Teixeira	Policy report	https://download.inep.gov.br/publicacoes/institucionais/estatisticas_e_indicadores/notas_estatisticas_censo_escolar_2020.pdf
State – CE	1995	Lei n^o 12.452, de 6 de junho de 1995. Dispõe sobre o Processo de Municipalização do Ensino Público do Ceará e dá outras providências	Municipalização CE.	Law No. 12,452, of June 6, 1995. Provides for the Process of Municipalization of Public Education in Ceará and other measures	Legislation	https://belt.al.ce.gov.br/index.php/legislacao-do-ceara/organizacao-tematica/trabalho-administracao-e-servico-publico/item/2401-lei-n-12-452-de-06-06-95-d-o-de-27-06-95
	2006	Educação de qualidade começando pelo começo: relatório final do Comitê Cearense para a Eliminação do Analfabetismo Escolar	CCEAE	Quality education starting from the beginning: final report of the Ceará’s Committee for the Elimination of School Illiteracy	Policy report	https://idadecerta.seduc.ce.gov.br/images/biblioteca/relatorio_final_comite_cearense_eliminacao_analfabetismo/revista_unicef.pdf
	2007	Lei n° 14.026/2007. Cria o Programa Alfabetização na Idade Certa – PAIC	PAIC Law	Law No. 14,026/2007. Creates the Literacy in the Right Age Program – PAIC	Legislation	https://idadecerta.seduc.ce.gov.br/images/leis/lei_14026_2007.pdf
	2008	Decreto n° 29.306/2008. Dispõe sobre os critérios de apuração dos índices percentuais destinados à entrega de 25% do ICMS municípios, na forma da lei n° 12.612, de 7 de agosto de 1996, alterada pela lei n° 14.023, de 17 de dezembro de 2007, e dá outras providências	Reforma ICMS	Decree No. 29,306/2008. Provides for the calculation of the Municipal Educational Quality Index – IMQE – for transfer of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services – ICMS	Legislation	https://idadecerta.seduc.ce.gov.br/index.php/o-paic/historico/legislacao
	2009	Lei n° 14.371 e 14.580/2009. Cria o Prêmio Escola Nota Dez, destinado a premiar as escolas públicas com melhor resultado no Índice de Desempenho Escolar-Alfabetização – IDE-Alfa, e dá outras providências	Prêmio Escola Nota Dez	Law No. 14,371 and 14.580/2009. Establishes the Escola Nota Dez Award, aimed at awarding public schools with the best results in the School Performance Index – Literacy, IDE-Alfa	Legislation	https://idadecerta.seduc.ce.gov.br/images/leis/lei_14371_2009.pdf
	2012	Secretaria de Educação. Regime de colaboração para a garantia do direito à aprendizagem: o Programa Alfabetização na Idade Certa (PAIC) no Ceará. Fortaleza: SEDUC, 2012. 196 p	PAIC	Collaboration to guarantee the right to learning: the Literacy in the Right Age Program (PAIC) in Ceará	Policy report	https://idadecerta.seduc.ce.gov.br/images/biblioteca/livro_regime_de_colaboracao.pdf
	2016	Lei n^o 16.025/2016. Dispõe sobre o Plano Estadual de Educação (2016/2024)	PEE-CE	State Law No. 16,025/2016. Establishes the CE State Education Plan 2016–2024	Legislation	http://www.mpce.mp.br/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20170020-LEI-16025-2016.pdf
	2017	Memória de Cálculo dos Coeficientes e Distribuição do ICMS Municipal 2017. Nota Técnica n° 63. Instituto de Pesquisa e Estratégia Econômica do Ceará (IPECE)	Cálculo Índice ICMS	Calculation Report of Coefficients and Distribution of the 2017 Municipal ICMS tax. Technical Note No. 63. Institute for Research and Economic Strategy (IPECE)	Policy report	http://www.ipece.ce.gov.br/notas_tecnicas/NT_63.pdf
	2018	Nota técnica explicativa de cálculo das médias municipais de proficiência das avaliações do SPAECE, para as turmas de Alfabetização	Spaece-Alfa	Note to calculate municipal averages of proficiency in the Spaece assessments for literacy	Policy guidance	https://www.seduc.ce.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/sites/37/2018/07/nota-explicativa.pdf
State – RN	2004	Plano Plurianual do Estado para o quadriênio 2004–2007	PPA 2004–2007	Four-year Government Strategic Plan for the period 2004–2007	Government plan	http://adcon.rn.gov.br/ACERVO/seplan/DOC/DOC000000000109734.PDF
	2005	Lei Complementar n° 290/2005. Dispõe sobre a democratização da gestão escolar no âmbito da rede pública estadual de ensino do RN	Lei 290/2005	Complementary Law No. 290/2005. Provides for the democratization of school management within the state public education of RN	Legislation	http://www.al.rn.gov.br/storage/legislacao/2019/07/12/314b9407297fb12e65bd0545ae7c3313.pdf
	2009	Plano Plurianual do Estado para o quadriênio 2008–2011	PPA 2008–2011	Four-year Government Strategic Plan for the period 2008–2011	Government plan	http://adcon.rn.gov.br/ACERVO/seplan/DOC/DOC000000000109722.PDF
	2012	Plano Plurianual do Estado para o quadriênio 2012–2015	PPA 2012–2015	Four-year Government Strategic Plan for the period 2012–2015	Government plan	http://adcon.rn.gov.br/ACERVO/seplan/DOC/DOC000000000109724.PDF
	2014	Tribunal de Contas do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Auditoria Operacional. Relatório sobre educação etapa Ensino Médio – Rede SEEC-RN. Acórdão n° 573–2015 TC	TCE-RN	Court of Auditors of the State of Rio Grande do Norte. Operational Audit. Report on Education – SEEC-RN. Judgment No. 573–2015 TC	Operational audit	https://arearestrita.tce.rn.gov.br/as/PaginaSetor/AOP/40/0._Relat%C3%B3rio_Final_AOP_Coordenada_EM_TCERN.pdf
	2015	Tribunal de Contas do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Relatório de Auditoria Operacional Coordenada na Qualidade e Disponibilidade das Instalações e Equipamentos das Escolas Públicas de Ensino Fundamental. Processo n°: 13.269/2015 – TC	TCE-RN	Court of Auditors of the State of Rio Grande do Norte. Coordinated Operational Audit Report on the Quality and Availability of Facilities and Equipment in Public Elementary Schools. Process No.: 13.269/2015 – TC	Operational Audit	https://arearestrita.tce.rn.gov.br/as/PaginaSetor/AOP/188/Relat%C3%B3rio_Final_AOP_Coordenada_Qualidade_Escolas_EF_TCERN__Sem_Capa.pdf
	2015	Relatório de Atividades desenvolvidas pela Gestão da SEEC – Ano 2015	Relatório de Gestão 2015	Report on Activities developed by the SEEC Management – Year 2015	Policy report
	2016	Relatório de Atividades desenvolvidas pela Gestão da SEEC – Ano 2016	Relatório de Gestão 2016	Report on Activities developed by the SEEC Management – Year 2016	Policy report
	2016	Plano Plurianual do Estado para o quadriênio 2016–2019	PPA 2016–2019	Four-year Government Strategic Plan for the period 2016–2019	Government plan	http://adcon.rn.gov.br/ACERVO/seplan/DOC/DOC000000000171420.PDF
	2016	Lei Estadual n° 10.049/2016. Aprova Plano Estadual de Educação do RN	PEE-RN	State Law No. 10,049/2016. Approves the RN State Education Plan	Legislation	http://www.al.rn.gov.br/storage/legislacao/2016/01/29/be5a8e56ae78b3174b64f1275f8a27ed.pdf
	2017	Relatório de Atividades desenvolvidas pela Gestão da SEEC – Ano 2017	Relatório de Gestão 2017	Report on Activities developed by the SEEC Management – Year 2017	Policy report
	2018	Relatório de Atividades desenvolvidas pela Gestão da SEEC – Ano 2018	Relatório de Gestão 2018	Report on Activities developed by the SEEC Management – Year 2018	Policy report
	2019	Portaria-SEI n. 189/2019. Dispõe sobre o Programa “Sistemas de Ensino Articulados do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte - SEARN”, criado pelo Decreto n° 26.764/2017, alterado pelo Decreto n° 28.799, de 16 de abril de 2019, e dá outras providências	SEARN	SEI Ordinance No. 189/2019. Provides for the Program “Articulated Teaching Systems of the State of Rio Grande do Norte - SEARN”, created by Decree No. 26,764/2017, amended by Decree No. 28.799, of April 16, 2019	Legislation	https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/270842764/doern-17-05-2019-pg-8?ref=next_button
	2020	Plano Plurianual do Estado para o quadriênio 2020–2023	PPA 2020–2023	Four-year Government Strategic Plan for the period 2020–2023	Government plan	http://adcon.rn.gov.br/ACERVO/seplan/DOC/DOC000000000225861.PDF

Source: Compiled by authors.Note. Some documents are no longer available online, probably due to the electoral period in Brazil, during which the dissemination of government material that characterizes electoral propaganda is not allowed.

Table A3. Major reforms at the national/federal level since 1990

Year	Reform initiatives	Content (and subsequent development)
1990	Basic Education Assessment System (Saeb) by Inep	Student assessment and school information collected bi-annually (2005: became a universal assessment system for public education; combined with failure, success and dropout rates to form Ideb)
1996	Fund for the Development of Primary and Lower Secondary Education (Fundef) Act by MEC	Induce municipalities to take on primary education provision; increase funds allocated to poorest areas by pooling taxes/transfers resources from municipal and state governments and redistributing on a student-enrolment basis (2007: replaced by the Fundeb Act which broadened the coverage to early childhood education throughout to high school)
1996	National Education Guidelines and Foundations (LDB) Act by MEC	Preserve autonomy yet reinforce the federal government’s supporting role in continuous assessment and teacher professional development
1999	Constitutional amendment No. 59	Change mandatory education age from 7–14 years old to 4–17 years
2008	Provinha Brasil	Voluntary assessment of student literacy (2014/2016: became a universal assessment program; 2019: became part of Saeb)
2012	National Pact for Literacy at the Right Age (PNAIC)	A literacy program based on CE’s PAIC program (2018: program terminated)
2014	National Education Plan (PNE)	Establish national guidelines for educational policy for 2014–2024

Source: Compiled by authors.

Table A4. Evolution of Ideb for primary government schools

	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017	2019
CE	2.8	3.5	4.1	4.7	5.0	5.7	6.1	6.3
RN	2.5	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.0	4.4	4.5	4.7
Brazil	3.6	4.0	4.4	4.7	4.9	5.3	5.5	5.7

Source: http://ideb.inep.gov.br/resultado/home.seam?cid=321762.

Figure A1. CE (horizontal lines) and RN (vertical lines) in Brazil’s map