Predicting charges and convictions for rape suspects in Denmark: characteristics associated with the notion of the ‘credible criminal’

ABSTRACT

In recent years, focus on the high attrition rates and low conviction rates in sexual assault cases in Scandinavia has increased. Attrition refers to the dropout of cases through the criminal justice system. However, only limited research exists on the importance of suspect characteristics for the legal outcomes in these cases. The present study is the first in Scandinavia to investigate legal and extralegal suspect variables relating to charges and convictions in the criminal justice system regarding suspected offenders in rape and attempted rape cases. All reported cases of rape and attempted rape in the Eastern Jutland Police District from 2008 to 2010 with an identified rape suspect (N = 175) were analysed through binary logistic regression analyses to examine which variables might increase the likelihood of charges or convictions. Results show that suspects with one or more prior sexual assault charges were more likely to be charged and convicted of a rape offence. The results of the present study help improve the understanding of the judicial processing of cases of rape from a different perspective than the victims’ and partially lend support to the hypothesis of ‘the credible criminal’ in terms of investigative and prosecutorial decision-making in rape cases.

KEYWORDS:

• Rape
• suspects
• sexual offenders
• criminal justice system
• rape attrition
• legal outcome

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank former Deputy Police Superintendent Poul Erik Christensen, Serious Crime Squad, Eastern Jutland Regional Police, Denmark, for participating in the data collection and data management, and for invaluable technical support regarding police data for the present study. In addition, the authors wish to thank Dr Rikke Holm Bramsen for extensive and valuable feedback in the preparation of the present study.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.

Notes

1. The overall number of charges for sex crimes in the region compared to the number of male residents in the region aged 15–80 years for 2008.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by a grant from the Centre for Rape Victims, CRV, Aarhus University Hospital, and a grant from the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark awarded to the first author. The funding organizations were not involved in the design or conduct of the study.