What drives business cycle synchronization? BMA results from the European Union

Figures & data

Table 1. BMA statistics under UIP g prior and EMS = 21.5.

Model prior	Uniform				Binomial-beta
Variable	PIP	PM	PSD	P(+)	PIP	PM	PSD	P(+)
MIGR	1 . 000	0 . 026	0 . 004	1 . 000	1 . 000	0 . 026	0 . 004	1 . 000
KSI	1 . 000	−0 . 775	0 . 179	0 . 000	1 . 000	−0 . 781	0 . 159	0 . 000
EXCHANGE	1 . 000	−1 . 247	0 . 180	0 . 000	1 . 000	−1 . 257	0 . 159	0 . 000
TFP	0 . 998	0 . 267	0 . 063	1 . 000	0 . 997	0 . 268	0 . 063	1 . 000
RESERV	0 . 983	0 . 104	0 . 031	1 . 000	0 . 992	0 . 116	0 . 030	1 . 000
IIT	0 . 930	0 . 629	0 . 264	1 . 000	0 . 952	0 . 674	0 . 241	1 . 000
RISK	0 . 895	−0 . 160	0 . 077	0 . 000	0 . 841	−0 . 157	0 . 085	0 . 000
MOBILITY	0 . 825	0 . 112	0 . 065	1 . 000	0 . 762	0 . 107	0 . 070	1 . 000
FISCAL	0 . 639	−0 . 013	0 . 012	0 . 000	0.339	−0.007	0.011	0.000
RWELASTIC	0 . 625	−0 . 031	0 . 028	0 . 000	0.480	−0.025	0.029	0.000
MA	0 . 549	−0 . 043	0 . 045	0 . 000	0.435	−0.035	0.045	0.000
TRANS	0.420	0.039	0.054	1.000	0.166	0.014	0.036	1.000
HUMAN	0.358	0.055	0.086	1.000	0.123	0.018	0.054	1.000
ARABLE	0.354	0.001	0.001	1.000	0.122	0.000	0.001	1.000
OILpc	0.350	0.000	0.000	0.998	0.166	0.000	0.000	1.000
FDI	0.305	0.002	0.003	1.000	0.112	0.001	0.002	1.000
POPDIFF	0.275	0.000	0.000	0.999	0.142	0.000	0.000	1.000
EPCpc	0.239	0.000	0.000	0.972	0.088	0.000	0.000	0.979
URBAN	0.197	0.000	0.000	0.895	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.950
L	0.192	−0.022	0.055	0.000	0.054	−0.005	0.027	0.000
RGDPDIFF	0.174	0.000	0.000	0.875	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.947
CAPFLOW	0.161	0.007	0.021	1.000	0.087	0.004	0.016	1.000
CPWDIFF	0.150	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.000	0.000
CAPDIFF	0.140	0.000	0.000	0.819	0.072	0.000	0.000	0.914
IITT	0.127	1.133	4.488	0.996	0.048	0.349	2.206	0.998
RGDPPROD	0.123	0.000	0.000	0.997	0.039	0.000	0.000	0.997
MONET	0.110	0.001	0.006	0.967	0.035	0.000	0.003	0.961
TRADE2	0.098	0.067	0.332	0.943	0.039	0.027	0.192	0.976
TRADE1	0.097	0.116	1.092	0.885	0.039	0.060	0.551	0.954
EU	0.091	0.008	0.047	0.901	0.030	0.002	0.021	0.913
RGDPpc	0.087	0.005	0.029	0.856	0.025	0.001	0.012	0.758
OPEN	0.087	−0.003	0.015	0.041	0.028	−0.001	0.007	0.042
OLDUE	0.087	0.003	0.017	0.936	0.031	0.001	0.009	0.961
POPPROD	0.085	0.000	0.000	0.752	0.028	0.000	0.000	0.788
GOV	0.082	−0.027	0.153	0.072	0.035	−0.014	0.102	0.022
ARABLEpw	0.079	0.000	0.000	0.450	0.029	0.000	0.000	0.782
INFVAR	0.072	0.000	0.002	0.102	0.026	0.000	0.001	0.145
DGEO	0.071	0.000	0.000	0.131	0.030	0.000	0.000	0.046
LAND	0.070	0.000	0.000	0.214	0.026	0.000	0.000	0.344
URBANshare	0.065	0.003	0.040	0.689	0.023	0.001	0.023	0.645
MU	0.063	−0.001	0.011	0.300	0.022	0.000	0.006	0.306
B	0.062	−0.001	0.013	0.340	0.021	0.000	0.007	0.617
AGROWTH	0.060	−0.034	0.377	0.118	0.024	−0.015	0.243	0.130
Burn-ins	4 m				4 m
Iterations	40 m				40 m
Cor PMP	0.9985				0.9999

Note: Variables robust under at least one prior specification are written in bold.

Table 2. BMA statistics under RIC g prior and EMS = 21.5.

Model prior	Uniform				Binomial-beta
Variable	PIP	PM	PSD	P(+)	PIP	PM	PSD	P(+)
MIGR	1 . 000	0 . 026	0 . 004	1 . 000	1 . 000	0 . 026	0 . 004	1 . 000
KSI	1 . 000	−0 . 779	0 . 161	0 . 000	1 . 000	−0 . 799	0 . 146	0 . 000
EXCHANGE	1 . 000	−1 . 258	0 . 161	0 . 000	1 . 000	−1 . 275	0 . 148	0 . 000
TFP	0 . 997	0 . 268	0 . 063	1 . 000	0 . 993	0 . 273	0 . 065	1 . 000
RESERV	0 . 992	0 . 116	0 . 029	1 . 000	0 . 993	0 . 120	0 . 030	1 . 000
IIT	0 . 952	0 . 679	0 . 243	1 . 000	0 . 954	0 . 673	0 . 229	1 . 000
RISK	0 . 860	−0 . 161	0 . 083	0 . 000	0 . 738	−0 . 140	0 . 096	0 . 000
MOBILITY	0 . 793	0 . 111	0 . 068	1 . 000	0 . 584	0 . 083	0 . 077	1 . 000
RWELASTIC	0 . 527	−0 . 028	0 . 030	0 . 000	0.272	−0.015	0.026	0.000
MA	0.470	−0.038	0.045	0.000	0.279	−0.023	0.040	0.000
FISCAL	0.381	−0.008	0.011	0.000	0.163	−0.003	0.008	0.000
TRANS	0.196	0.017	0.039	1.000	0.049	0.004	0.020	1.000
OILpc	0.190	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.062	0.000	0.000	1.000
POPDIFF	0.158	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.068	0.000	0.000	1.000
ARABLE	0.142	0.000	0.001	1.000	0.034	0.000	0.000	1.000
HUMAN	0.141	0.020	0.057	1.000	0.036	0.005	0.029	1.000
FDI	0.127	0.001	0.002	1.000	0.039	0.000	0.001	1.000
URBAN	0.111	0.000	0.000	0.947	0.047	0.000	0.000	0.982
EPCpc	0.102	0.000	0.000	0.978	0.026	0.000	0.000	0.989
RGDPDIFF	0.101	0.000	0.000	0.942	0.048	0.000	0.000	0.987
CAPFLOW	0.093	0.005	0.017	1.000	0.054	0.003	0.014	1.000
CAPDIFF	0.080	0.000	0.000	0.909	0.035	0.000	0.000	0.972
L	0.061	−0.006	0.028	0.000	0.014	−0.001	0.012	0.000
CPWDIFF	0.060	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.016	0.000	0.000	0.000
IITT	0.054	0.393	2.314	0.997	0.015	0.100	1.080	0.999
TRADE2	0.045	0.030	0.204	0.977	0.013	0.009	0.108	0.993
TRADE1	0.044	0.070	0.583	0.957	0.013	0.021	0.278	0.984
RGDPPROD	0.044	0.000	0.000	0.997	0.012	0.000	0.000	0.999
GOV	0.040	−0.015	0.109	0.022	0.014	−0.006	0.066	0.007
MONET	0.040	0.000	0.003	0.957	0.010	0.000	0.001	0.975
OLDUE	0.035	0.001	0.009	0.960	0.010	0.000	0.005	0.987
DGEO	0.034	0.000	0.000	0.043	0.012	0.000	0.000	0.012
EU	0.034	0.002	0.022	0.910	0.009	0.000	0.009	0.957
ARABLEpw	0.033	0.000	0.000	0.794	0.010	0.000	0.000	0.940
OPEN	0.032	−0.001	0.007	0.044	0.008	0.000	0.003	0.023
POPPROD	0.031	0.000	0.000	0.790	0.009	0.000	0.000	0.821
INFVAR	0.030	0.000	0.002	0.124	0.008	0.000	0.001	0.320
LAND	0.029	0.000	0.000	0.342	0.008	0.000	0.000	0.446
RGDPpc	0.029	0.001	0.012	0.746	0.007	0.000	0.005	0.821
URBANshare	0.027	0.001	0.025	0.635	0.008	0.000	0.013	0.726
AGROWTH	0.026	−0.016	0.257	0.135	0.008	−0.006	0.145	0.094
MU	0.026	0.000	0.006	0.301	0.007	0.000	0.003	0.312
B	0.025	0.000	0.007	0.612	0.007	0.000	0.004	0.833
Burn-ins	4 m				4 m
Iterations	40 m				40 m
Cor PMP	0.9999				1.0000

Note: Variables robust under at least one prior specification are written in bold.

Table 3. LS (above diagonal) and DW (below diagonal) measures under beta-binomial model prior with EMS = 21.5 and RIC g prior.

LS
DW	EU	MU	B	DGEO	L	FISCAL	MONET	EXCHANGE	RGDPPROD	POPPROD	RGDPpc	OPEN	GOV	HUMAN	CPWDIFF	ARABLE	ARABLEpw	LAND	EPCpc	OILpc	MIGR	URBANshare
EU		−4.1	−4.1	−4.2	−3.7	−3.8	−3.6	−3.3	−5.0	−4.3	−3.5	−4.3	−4.2	−3.6	−4.0	−3.3	−4.1	−4.3	−3.6	−3.6	−3.3	−4.1
MU	0.2		−4.3	−4.7	−4.2	−3.6	−4.1	−3.7	−3.9	−4.6	−4.2	−4.2	−3.9	−3.7	−3.7	−3.7	−4.0	−4.1	−3.9	−3.6	−3.7	−4.2
B	−0.2	−0.2		−4.4	−3.9	−3.8	−4.4	−3.7	−4.1	−4.2	−4.1	−4.2	−4.2	−3.8	−4.6	−3.7	−4.2	−4.1	−3.8	−3.7	−3.8	−4.3
DGEO	0.2	0.2	−0.2		−3.4	−3.5	−4.0	−3.4	−3.7	−4.4	−4.0	−4.1	−4.8	−3.2	−3.7	−3.6	−4.7	−4.1	−3.7	−3.4	−3.4	−4.3
L	0.4	−1.0	0.2	0.1		−2.7	−3.6	−2.8	−3.6	−3.8	−3.9	−3.5	−3.5	−2.7	−3.2	−3.2	−3.7	−3.9	−2.9	−2.9	−2.8	−3.8
FISCAL	0.5	0.2	−0.9	−0.2	0.2		−3.0	−0.5	−3.1	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−3.1	−2.2	−2.8	−1.7	−3.5	−3.5	−1.7	−1.3	−0.5	−3.7
MONET	0.2	−0.2	0.2	−0.3	0.3	0.5		−3.2	−3.6	−4.5	−4.3	−3.8	−3.6	−3.3	−3.4	−3.3	−4.3	−4.2	−3.3	−3.1	−3.3	−4.2
EXCHANGE	−0.5	−1.8	inf	inf	−0.5	−0.6	inf		−4.0	−3.4	−3.5	−3.4	−3.1	−1.8	−2.8	−1.8	−3.4	−3.5	−2.2	−1.5	7.6	−3.7
RGDPPROD	−0.6	−0.1	−0.4	0.3	−0.2	0.2	0.4	−1.2		−3.1	−4.0	−3.9	−3.9	−3.4	−3.8	−3.5	−4.7	−3.9	−3.3	−3.8	−4.0	−4.2
POPPROD	−0.7	0.2	−0.7	1.0	−0.1	0.5	0.4	1.4	0.7		−3.9	−4.1	−3.9	−3.3	−4.0	−3.4	−3.8	−4.3	−3.6	−3.4	−3.4	−4.3
RGDPpc	1.0	0.2	−0.3	−1.0	−0.6	0.2	−0.2	−1.6	0.3	0.2		−3.9	−3.8	−3.6	−3.5	−3.6	−3.9	−4.7	−3.9	−3.7	−3.5	−4.3
OPEN	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.5	−1.7	0.7	0.4	0.3		−4.2	−3.1	−4.8	−3.8	−3.8	−3.9	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−4.3
GOV	−0.1	0.1	−0.1	0.2	0.2	−0.6	0.7	−1.8	−0.3	0.5	0.3	−0.4		−3.2	−4.0	−3.2	−4.3	−4.3	−3.6	−3.5	−3.1	−4.3
HUMAN	0.7	−0.7	0.3	0.5	0.3	−0.2	0.3	1.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.1		−3.3	−2.3	−3.4	−3.7	−2.2	−1.9	−1.8	−3.7
CPWDIFF	−0.5	0.2	−0.5	−0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	3.6	0.4	−0.9	0.6	0.2	−0.4	0.2		−3.9	−3.7	−3.9	−3.0	−2.6	−2.8	−3.9
ARABLE	0.3	−0.2	0.2	0.1	−0.2	0.5	0.1	−0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	−0.8	0.3	0.3	0.2		−3.5	−3.8	−3.0	−2.1	−1.8	−3.7
ARABLEpw	−0.3	0.8	−0.3	−1.0	0.1	−0.1	0.2	−0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.3	−0.2	0.2	−0.1	−0.2		−4.4	−3.8	−3.7	−3.4	−4.4
LAND	−0.2	−0.3	−0.2	0.2	0.1	0.7	−0.1	inf	0.2	−0.1	0.7	−0.3	0.2	−0.4	0.2	0.7	0.1		−3.5	−3.6	−3.5	−4.6
EPCpc	0.1	−0.8	0.4	0.2	0.2	1.2	0.2	−0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	1.0	−0.4	0.7	0.4	−0.3	−0.4	0.5		−4.2	−2.2	−3.8
OILpc	−0.2	1.0	−0.3	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.3	2.1	0.3	0.1	−0.1	0.5	−0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	−0.1	0.5	−1.5		−1.5	−3.7
MIGR	inf	inf	inf	−0.3	1.9	-inf	-inf	-inf	inf	−1.7	0.1	0.5	inf	inf	0.3	inf	inf	−0.3	−0.5	−1.9		−3.6
URBANshare	1.0	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	−0.5	0.2	−2.3	0.1	−0.1	0.4	−0.3	−0.6	0.2	−0.8	0.9	−0.4	0.4	−0.8	0.2	−0.6
FDI	−0.1	0.9	0.8	−0.2	1.2	0.2	0.5	−1.7	0.4	0.4	−0.7	0.7	0.3	0.9	1.0	0.7	−0.3	−0.9	0.5	−0.9	−2.0	1.0
TRADE1	−0.3	−0.2	0.3	−0.2	0.6	−0.9	0.2	1.4	−0.6	0.2	0.3	0.2	−0.6	0.1	0.8	0.1	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.3	−3.6	0.9
TRADE2	−0.3	0.2	0.2	−0.1	0.5	−0.2	0.1	inf	−0.3	−0.4	−1.0	−0.2	0.7	0.2	−0.1	0.3	−0.9	−0.7	0.3	0.2	inf	−0.2
TFP	−0.5	−0.9	0.8	−0.3	0.6	−0.3	0.6	2.8	0.3	−0.1	2.2	0.7	−0.2	0.7	0.1	−0.2	−0.5	−0.5	0.1	0.4	−22.0	0.2
RESERV	−1.5	−0.5	0.1	−0.3	−0.8	−3.2	−1.9	-inf	−1.5	−0.7	−1.7	−0.5	−0.6	−0.6	−0.9	−0.2	0.1	−0.2	−1.5	−0.7	4.5	−0.4
CAPFLOW	0.4	−0.2	0.1	0.2	0.5	−0.3	−0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	−0.6	−0.7	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	−0.7	inf	−0.2
MOBILITY	−0.3	0.1	0.7	−0.3	−0.3	0.7	−0.2	2.9	−0.1	−0.1	−0.2	−0.4	−0.1	−0.4	0.2	−0.3	−0.1	−0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	−0.3
RWELASTIC	0.8	−0.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.1	−0.2	−2.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	−0.2	−0.7	−0.3	−0.8	−0.6	−0.2	−0.1	−0.6	2.3	−0.8
KSI	−2.4	inf	−1.2	inf	−0.2	-inf	−1.7	-inf	inf	−1.5	−2.8	0.9	inf	−0.4	3.3	−1.2	inf	inf	0.6	0.9	7.0	inf
IIT	0.1	−0.2	−0.3	−0.1	−0.8	−0.6	−0.4	−1.7	−0.8	−0.8	0.1	−0.9	0.2	−1.9	−0.4	0.1	−0.2	0.3	−1.3	−1.8	2.2	−0.3
IITT	0.9	0.8	0.1	−0.4	0.8	−0.8	0.1	1.8	−0.2	−0.2	0.4	0.4	−0.8	0.5	−0.2	0.3	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.5	−0.9	0.9
MA	−0.4	−0.4	−0.2	0.2	−0.2	−0.6	−0.2	−2.3	−0.6	−0.3	−0.1	−0.2	−0.2	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.3	−0.8	−0.9	−0.5	1.0	−0.1
AGROWTH	1.0	0.2	−0.4	−0.1	−0.2	−0.5	0.1	−1.4	0.8	0.2	0.3	−0.2	0.3	0.2	−0.5	−0.1	0.9	−0.2	0.2	−0.2	inf	−0.3
INFVAR	0.2	0.9	−0.6	0.8	−0.2	0.2	−0.1	nan	0.1	−0.4	1.0	−0.3	0.2	−0.2	−0.2	0.2	−0.6	−0.3	0.6	−0.7	−1.6	0.2
TRANS	0.6	−0.6	0.2	−0.4	−0.2	−0.1	−0.6	3.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	−0.2	−0.4	0.2	−0.4	0.4	−0.2	0.9	0.3	0.5	inf	0.3
RISK	−0.1	−0.1	−0.4	−0.5	−0.2	−0.9	−0.5	−1.6	−0.4	−0.2	−0.2	−0.7	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.2	−0.9	−0.8	−0.9	−0.6	1.2	−0.1
RGDPDIFF	−0.6	0.4	0.6	−0.2	0.4	−0.9	−0.2	−0.7	0.2	0.8	0.2	−0.2	−0.1	0.4	−0.2	0.8	−0.7	0.2	0.5	0.5	inf	0.9
POPDIFF	−0.8	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.4	0.8	−0.4	−0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.3	−0.1	0.4	0.1	−0.4	−0.6	0.4	0.6	0.6	−1.8	0.7
OLDUE	−0.5	0.4	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.9	−0.7	−0.3	−0.2	0.7	−0.2	−0.2	0.2	−0.4	0.7	−0.7	−0.2	0.2	0.1	−2.7	0.5
CAPDIFF	0.3	−0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	−0.2	0.8	−0.9	0.2	0.7	−0.3	−0.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	−0.8	−0.1	−0.2	0.5	0.5	inf	0.2
URBAN	−0.2	0.2	0.4	−0.9	0.3	−0.6	0.9	inf	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	−0.1	0.3	−0.9	−0.4	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	3.2	0.4
LS
DW	FDI	TRADE1	TRADE2	TFP	RESERV	CAPFLOW	MOBILITY	RWELASTIC	KSI	IIT	IITT	MA	AGROWTH	INFVAR	TRANS	RISK	RGDPDIFF	POPDIFF	OLDUE	CAPDIFF	URBAN
EU	−3.8	−4.9	−4.2	−3.3	−3.4	−3.1	−3.5	−3.3	−3.3	−3.3	−4.2	−3.5	−4.3	−4.4	−3.0	−3.4	−3.7	−3.6	−4.2	−3.6	−3.5
MU	−3.7	−4.1	−5.0	−3.7	−3.7	−3.9	−3.6	−3.7	−3.7	−3.7	−4.0	−3.7	−4.4	−4.5	−3.7	−3.8	−3.7	−3.7	−3.8	−3.9	−3.9
B	−3.7	−3.8	−4.0	−3.7	−3.7	−3.8	−3.8	−3.7	−3.8	−3.7	−3.7	−3.8	−4.1	−4.1	−3.9	−3.7	−3.8	−3.6	−4.1	−3.9	−4.0
DGEO	−3.8	−4.2	−4.3	−3.4	−3.4	−3.5	−3.5	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−3.9	−3.3	−4.2	−4.2	−3.6	−3.5	−3.5	−3.5	−4.8	−3.8	−3.5
L	−2.1	−3.5	−3.2	−2.8	−2.8	−4.0	−2.9	−2.7	−2.8	−2.8	−2.8	−3.2	−4.0	−3.7	−3.8	−2.8	−2.8	−2.8	−3.9	−3.1	−2.8
FISCAL	−2.1	−3.9	−3.1	−0.5	−0.5	−2.6	−0.6	−0.9	−0.5	−0.5	−3.2	−1.4	−3.6	−3.4	−1.8	−0.8	−2.4	−1.9	−3.2	−2.6	−2.2
MONET	−3.2	−3.6	−3.6	−3.2	−3.2	−3.7	−3.2	−3.3	−3.2	−3.3	−3.6	−3.4	−3.8	−4.2	−3.8	−3.2	−3.3	−3.3	−3.6	−3.4	−3.6
EXCHANGE	−1.9	−3.5	−3.6	5.6	4.8	−2.2	1.3	1.0	7.6	3.9	−2.9	−0.1	−3.6	−3.5	−1.4	1.8	−2.2	−1.7	−3.3	−2.4	−2.4
RGDPPROD	−3.9	−4.7	−4.1	−3.9	−3.1	−3.4	−3.1	−3.6	−3.9	−3.2	−3.9	−3.6	−4.2	−3.9	−3.0	−3.2	−3.2	−3.6	−4.3	−3.5	−3.7
POPPROD	−3.4	−4.2	−4.1	−3.4	−3.4	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−3.5	−4.9	−3.7	−4.3	−4.8	−3.4	−3.5	−3.7	−3.4	−4.0	−3.7	−3.5
RGDPpc	−3.8	−4.6	−3.7	−3.5	−3.5	−3.7	−3.6	−3.5	−3.5	−3.5	−4.2	−3.5	−4.2	−4.2	−3.2	−3.5	−3.6	−3.6	−3.4	−3.9	−3.7
OPEN	−2.9	−3.8	−4.2	−3.4	−3.5	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−3.5	−3.6	−3.6	−4.1	−4.5	−3.6	−3.5	−3.5	−3.4	−3.9	−3.7	−3.4
GOV	−3.3	−4.0	−3.8	−3.1	−3.1	−3.4	−3.2	−3.3	−3.1	−3.1	−3.9	−3.4	−4.3	−4.3	−3.6	−3.1	−3.5	−3.3	−4.2	−3.6	−3.7
HUMAN	−1.8	−3.2	−3.1	−1.8	−1.8	−2.2	−2.0	−2.4	−1.8	−2.0	−2.8	−1.9	−3.6	−3.9	−2.2	−1.8	−2.4	−2.2	−3.4	−2.8	−2.3
CPWDIFF	−3.2	−3.7	−3.6	−2.9	−2.8	−3.1	−2.9	−3.0	−2.8	−2.8	−3.5	−2.9	−4.2	−4.0	−3.4	−2.8	−3.2	−3.8	−3.9	−3.2	−3.3
ARABLE	−2.0	−3.1	−3.9	−1.8	−1.8	−2.4	−2.0	−2.4	−1.8	−1.8	−2.9	−1.7	−3.8	−3.6	−2.0	−1.8	−2.6	−2.5	−3.4	−2.9	−2.6
ARABLEpw	−3.5	−3.8	−4.1	−3.4	−3.4	−3.5	−3.4	−3.5	−3.4	−3.4	−3.8	−3.2	−5.0	−4.1	−3.4	−3.4	−3.7	−3.6	−3.9	−3.9	−3.7
LAND	−3.8	−4.1	−3.9	−3.5	−3.5	−3.8	−3.5	−3.6	−3.5	−3.5	−3.7	−3.6	−4.8	−4.3	−3.7	−3.6	−3.7	−3.4	−4.2	−3.9	−3.6
EPCpc	−2.4	−3.8	−3.9	−2.2	−2.2	−2.9	−2.1	−2.4	−2.2	−2.3	−2.9	−2.9	−3.7	−3.6	−2.3	−2.4	−2.3	−2.2	−3.6	−2.7	−2.4
OILpc	−3.2	−3.1	−3.0	−1.5	−1.5	−2.6	−1.5	−2.0	−1.5	−1.6	−2.7	−2.7	−3.7	−3.5	−2.7	−1.6	−2.2	−1.9	−3.6	−2.3	−2.9
MIGR	−1.9	−3.5	−3.6	5.7	4.9	−2.2	1.3	1.0	8.4	3.1	−2.9	−0.1	−3.6	−3.5	−1.4	1.8	−2.2	−1.7	−3.3	−2.4	−2.4
URBANshare	−3.8	−4.5	−4.3	−3.7	−3.6	−3.8	−3.7	−3.7	−3.6	−3.6	−4.3	−3.7	−4.1	−4.1	−3.5	−3.6	−3.7	−3.6	−4.1	−3.8	−3.7
FDI		−3.4	−3.5	−1.9	−1.9	−2.8	−2.2	−2.3	−1.9	−2.9	−3.1	−1.9	−3.7	−3.7	−2.5	−2.0	−2.3	−2.4	−3.7	−2.8	−2.4
TRADE1	−0.3		−4.1	−3.5	−3.5	−3.6	−3.0	−3.5	−3.5	−3.9	−4.2	−3.5	−3.9	−4.8	−3.5	−3.9	−3.3	−3.3	−3.9	−3.4	−3.3
TRADE2	−0.5	−0.4		−3.6	−3.7	−3.5	−3.8	−3.8	−3.7	−4.0	−4.3	−3.5	−4.2	−4.4	−3.2	−3.9	−3.2	−3.1	−4.2	−3.4	−3.3
TFP	−1.8	−0.7	0.3		4.5	−2.2	1.3	1.0	5.7	2.9	−2.9	−0.1	−3.6	−3.5	−1.4	1.8	−2.2	−1.7	−3.3	−2.4	−2.3
RESERV	−1.3	−0.7	−0.4	-inf		−2.2	1.3	0.8	4.8	2.9	−2.9	−0.1	−3.6	−3.4	−1.4	1.8	−2.2	−1.7	−3.3	−2.4	−2.4
CAPFLOW	0.7	−1.0	−0.1	1.6	−0.5		−3.3	−2.6	−2.2	−2.2	−3.3	−2.2	−3.8	−3.8	−3.0	−2.3	−2.8	−2.6	−3.2	−3.5	−2.8
MOBILITY	−0.9	0.5	0.5	−0.3	3.6	−2.5		−0.2	1.3	1.2	−2.8	−0.6	−3.6	−3.5	−1.6	0.8	−2.2	−1.8	−3.4	−2.4	−2.2
RWELASTIC	−0.5	0.1	0.9	−0.4	−1.1	−0.4	0.5		1.0	0.1	−3.0	−1.9	−3.7	−3.4	−1.6	−0.2	−2.1	−1.8	−3.3	−2.4	−2.0
KSI	1.5	−0.8	−0.4	−22.7	1.7	−0.1	0.1	−0.3		3.2	−2.9	−0.1	−3.6	−3.5	−1.4	1.8	−2.2	−1.7	−3.3	−2.4	−2.4
IIT	−1.7	−0.6	−0.5	0.7	1.3	0.2	−0.5	1.3	−25.6		−3.8	−0.4	−3.6	−3.4	−1.5	1.6	−2.3	−1.8	−3.3	−2.5	−2.1
IITT	0.1	−0.3	−0.6	0.8	−0.3	−0.3	0.4	−0.4	−1.3	−1.4		−3.3	−3.8	−3.7	−3.3	−2.9	−3.0	−2.8	−4.2	−3.2	−2.9
MA	0.4	−0.6	−0.6	−0.2	1.2	0.3	−0.8	−0.7	−0.2	2.6	−0.7		−3.5	−3.4	−1.2	0.8	−3.0	−2.6	−3.5	−3.6	−2.8
AGROWTH	0.3	0.9	0.5	−0.5	0.3	−0.6	−0.8	−0.3	inf	−0.1	−0.3	0.1		−4.5	−3.6	−3.6	−3.7	−3.6	−4.6	−3.8	−4.0
INFVAR	0.8	0.7	−0.7	−0.4	−0.9	0.1	−0.3	0.4	−0.6	0.6	−0.8	0.3	−0.1		−3.7	−3.4	−3.7	−3.6	−3.8	−3.6	−3.8
TRANS	−0.8	−0.2	0.9	−0.7	−1.0	−0.5	−0.5	−0.2	−1.5	0.6	−0.2	0.9	0.9	−0.2		−1.4	−2.4	−2.3	−3.3	−2.7	−2.4
RISK	−0.2	−0.2	−0.2	−1.2	0.6	−0.6	0.3	−0.6	1.4	0.4	−0.1	2.9	0.2	0.3	0.6		−2.4	−1.9	−3.3	−2.6	−2.2
RGDPDIFF	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.8	−0.5	0.1	0.7	0.3	inf	−1.2	0.3	−1.0	0.5	0.8	0.3	−1.6		−3.9	−3.8	−4.3	−4.4
POPDIFF	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.2	−0.5	0.6	0.3	0.3	4.4	−1.2	0.3	−1.4	1.0	−0.2	−0.5	−0.7	−1.3		−3.4	−3.9	−3.9
OLDUE	−0.2	−0.3	−0.3	−0.2	−1.6	0.3	−0.2	−0.9	−1.3	−0.2	−0.2	−0.3	−0.5	−1.0	0.2	−0.2	−0.5	−0.4		−3.8	−3.7
CAPDIFF	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.4	−0.8	−0.6	0.2	0.4	−1.1	−0.7	0.3	−0.9	−0.4	0.8	0.1	−1.3	−1.3	−1.2	−0.1		−4.5
URBAN	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	−0.6	0.8	0.2	0.4	inf	−0.9	0.3	−1.0	−0.2	0.6	0.1	−0.7	−1.5	−1.4	−0.9	−1.3

Table 4. Moral-Benito dynamic panel BMA statistics under UIP g prior and EMS = 5.5.

BCS measure		CFy						CFdlny
Model prior		Uniform			Binomial-beta			Uniform			Binomial-beta
Statistic		PIP	PM	PSD	PIP	PM	PSD	PIP	PM	PSD	PIP	PM	PSD
Regressor	LAG BCS	–	0,168	0,047	–	0,171	0,038	–	0,129	0,037	–	0,128	0,032
	KSIp	0,845	−0,223	0,095	0,947	−0,144	0,060	0,828	−0,076	0,072	0,944	−0,069	0,025
	RWELASTICp	0,719	−0,089	0,035	0,909	−0,079	0,027	0,724	−0,045	0,025	0,911	−0,042	0,020
	IITp	0,714	0,165	0,083	0,908	0,317	0,134	0,715	0,251	0,151	0,908	0,340	0,176
	CAPFLOWp	0,698	−0,018	0,053	0,901	−0,038	0,028	0,702	−0,045	0,020	0,902	−0,046	0,024
	TFPp	0,632	0,087	0,087	0,875	0,052	0,022	0,637	−0,020	0,011	0,877	−0,043	0,022
	EXCHANGEp	0,621	0,019	0,013	0,869	0,017	0,006	0,615	−0,030	0,018	0,867	−0,028	0,014
	FISCALp	0,599	−0,104	0,051	0,860	0,035	0,023	0,603	−0,098	0,047	0,860	−0,053	0,027
	MIGRp	0,597	0,037	0,108	0,859	−0,058	0,031	0,598	−0,017	0,009	0,858	−0,008	0,004
	RISKp	0,580	−0,037	0,029	0,856	−0,048	0,022	0,575	−0,018	0,014	0,852	−0,018	0,014
	RESERVp	0,561	0,036	0,027	0,843	0,039	0,010	0,555	0,026	0,016	0,839	0,016	0,015
BCS measure		BKy						Bkdlny
Regressor	LAG BCS	–	0,407	0,058	–	0,427	0,048	–	0,107	0,051	–	0,122	0,038
	KSIp	0,841	−0,812	0,189	0,950	−0,783	0,148	0,831	−0,152	0,092	0,946	−0,132	0,087
	RWELASTICp	0,736	−0,088	0,039	0,913	−0,076	0,028	0,723	−0,055	0,022	0,911	−0,060	0,018
	IITp	0,706	0,296	0,144	0,905	0,413	0,208	0,712	0,270	0,140	0,907	0,321	0,126
	CAPFLOWp	0,695	−0,040	0,085	0,900	−0,032	0,052	0,704	−0,024	0,049	0,903	−0,046	0,047
	TFPp	0,633	0,148	0,087	0,875	0,105	0,062	0,636	0,089	0,061	0,874	0,090	0,042
	EXCHANGEp	0,625	−0,051	0,028	0,870	−0,039	0,023	0,628	−0,057	0,018	0,872	−0,060	0,015
	FISCALp	0,602	−0,147	0,067	0,860	−0,106	0,051	0,601	−0,069	0,035	0,860	−0,017	0,016
	MIGRp	0,597	−0,119	0,066	0,860	−0,119	0,057	0,597	−0,031	0,041	0,858	−0,014	0,008
	RISKp	0,576	−0,046	0,044	0,853	−0,053	0,043	0,579	−0,030	0,029	0,855	−0,050	0,030
	RESERVp	0,559	0,033	0,046	0,842	0,087	0,047	0,558	0,048	0,025	0,841	0,054	0,021