Assessing the bets advertised on Twitter by gambling operators and gambling affiliates – an observational study incorporating simulation data to measure bet success

Figures & data

Table 1. Advertised bet frequency, median odds of advertised bets and percentage of advertised bets which are price boosted for each operator and affiliate account.

Account	Total Bets Advertised	Bets Advertised per Day	Mean Number of Times Each Bet is Advertised	Median Odds of Advertised Bets	Percentage of Advertised Bets Price Boosted
SkyBet	72	5.14	1.10	11.00	26.39
PaddyPower	1076	76.86	1.40	6.00	8.94
Bet365	315	22.50	1.02	6.00	0
Coral	392	28.00	1.26	4.33	21.94
WilliamHill	95	6.79	1.01	11.00	38.95
Operator	1950	139.29	1.28	6.00	12.31
FootyAccumulators	99	7.07	3.10	8.00	30.30
FootySuperTips	690	49.29	2.31	4.84	0
TheWinnersEnclosure	361	25.79	6.73	5.00	2.22
MyRacingTips	679	48.50	2.10	6.00	0
FootballTips	126	9.00	3.22	6.05	3.17
Affiliates	1955	139.64	3.15	5.70	1.42

Table 2. Percentage of single, multiple, and single game multibets advertised per operator and affiliate account.

Account	Single	Multiple	Single Game Multibet
SkyBet	51.39	36.11	12.50
PaddyPower	86.06	5.39	8.55
Bet365	84.44	0.32	15.24
Coral	92.86	0.26	6.89
WilliamHill	62.11	3.16	34.74
Operator	84.72	4.56	10.72
FootyAccumulators	5.05	58.59	36.36
FootySuperTips	76.74	19.91	3.34
TheWinnersEnclosure	86.98	10.80	2.22
MyRacingTips	81.54	16.86	1.62
FootballTips	33.33	53.97	12.70
Affiliates	73.90	21.30	4.79

Table 3. Information on success of advertised bets and the frequency of commenting upon bet success after the bet had been advertised for each gambling operator and gambling affiliate Twitter account.

Account	Percentage of Advertised Bets which Won	Percentage of Original Stake Lost	Median Odds of Winning Bets	Median Odds of Losing Bets	Percentage of Winning Bets where Outcome was Discussed	Percentage of Losing Bets where Outcome was Discussed
SkyBet	11.72	55.88	3.75	11.13	100	0
PaddyPower	20.16	16.77	2.50	7.00	0	0
Bet365	21.09	11.69	3.55	7.50	0	0
Coral	23.20	16.77	3.10	4.90	1.35	0
WilliamHill	2.47	90.31	3.92	11.00	0	0
Operator	19.85	20.46	2.63	7.00	1.58	0
FootyAccumulators	10.31	44.10	3.60	10.00	40.00	0
FootySuperTips	22.59	22.86	2.00	7.50	12.50	0.19
TheWinnersEnclosure	23.32	7.24	2.75	6.00	61.25	3.42
MyRacingTips	17.58	13.64	3.00	7.00	42.61	3.15
FootballTips	23.20	−59.05	3.75	7.25	41.38	0
Affiliates	20.40	12.52	2.63	7.00	21.76	1.79

Table 4. Percentage of simulations resulting in profit, median returns from a one-unit stake and mean percentage losses within 10,000 simulations of 14, 28, 70, and 140 randomly selected bets from operator, affiliate, and both account types.

	Operators	Affiliates	Overall
10,000 simulations of 14 randomly selected bets
% of simulations which made profit	25.17	32.89	29.51
Median returns from a 1 unit stake on each selected bet (14 units staked total)	8.49	10.02	9.20
Mean Percentage Losses	23.57	12.58	18.04
10,000 simulations of 28 randomly selected bets
% of simulations which made profit	23.64	31.25	28.41
Median returns from a 1 unit stake on each selected bet (28 units staked total)	18.73	21.56	20.30
Mean Percentage Losses	23.29	14.39	17.82
10,000 simulations of 70 randomly selected bets
% of simulations which made profit	19.44	28.75	23.88
Median returns from a 1 unit stake on each selected bet (70 units staked total)	50.76	57.53	54.58
Mean Percentage Losses	22.73	13.69	17.92
10,000 simulations of 140 randomly selected bets
% of simulations which made profit	13.88	24.62	18.82
Median returns from a 1 unit stake on each selected bet (140 units staked total)	104.41	118.40	111.54
Mean Percentage Losses	22.85	13.48	17.96

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Mendeley Data at http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/jwwkwj9wpc.1.