Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

Figures & data

Table 1. Nine types of uncertainty.

	Type of uncertainty
Object of uncertainty	Epistemic	Ontological	Ambiguity
Substantive	Lack of knowledge about the substance of the issue (e.g. what is the level of water pollution in the river?)	Irreducible unpredictability of the substantive issue (e.g. how excessive will extreme rainfall events be?)	Different frames about the substance of the issue (e.g. is this water scarcity a water supply or a water demand problem?)
Strategic	Lack of knowledge about the (inter)actions of actors (e.g. who is part of the water policy network?)	Irreducible unpredictability of the (inter)actions of actors (e.g. how will actor A respond when publicly accused of corruption?)	Different frames about the (inter)actions of actors (e.g. is this a genuine proposal for concertation or rather a delaying tactic?)
Institutional	Lack of knowledge about the rules of the game (e.g. what are the formal rules for public–private partnerships?)	Irreducible unpredictability of the rules of the game (e.g. how will the upcoming elections affect the environmental regulation?)	Different frames about the rules of the game (e.g. how should the precautionary principle be applied to this specific case?)