Climate and visitation to Utah's ‘Mighty 5’ national parks

ABSTRACT

The relationship between climate and visitation to managed natural areas has been analyzed at a variety of different spatial scales. We expand upon our existing knowledge on this topic by: (1) determining how a wide range of climate variables affect visitation across a regional tourism system; and (2) identifying which variables affect visitation system-wide and which variables only affect visitation at specific parks. Our analysis focuses on five national parks located in southern Utah (USA) commonly referred to as ‘the Mighty 5’. We found monthly average daily maximum temperatures were the best predictor of system-wide visitation, suggesting average daily maximum temperatures play a more direct role in tourists’ travel decisions relative to other climate variables, including other derivations of temperature. We also found declines in monthly park visitation for three parks (Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef) once average daily maximum temperatures exceed 25 C. For Bryce Canyon and Zion however, monthly visitation continued to increase well above this threshold. The geophysical characteristics of these parks appear to mediate the relationship between average daily maximum temperature and visitation. The commonly found ‘inverted U-shape’ relationship between temperature and visitation should not be seen as a universal maxim. We also found precipitation to be a poor predictor of system-wide visitation, but a significant factor shaping the travel decisions of visitors to Bryce Canyon, the only park to offer snow-based outdoor recreation opportunities. Future research should not disregard the possibility of precipitation being a significant factor shaping visitors’ travel decisions. By conducting our analyses at two distinct scales, we have found there is a difference between the individual climate variables that are regionally-significant drivers of visitation and those that are locally-significant drivers of visitation. Scale matters in analyses of the relationship between climate and visitation.

摘要

现有文献已经在不同的空间尺度上分析了气候与自然区域访问量的关系。我们扩展了该主题的现有知识:1)确定广泛的气候变量如何影响区域旅游系统的访问;2)确定哪些变量影响了整个区域旅游系统的访问, 哪些变量只影响特定公园的访问。我们的分析主要集中在美国犹他州南部的五个国家公园, 通常被称为“五强”。我们发现, 月平均最高温度是全区域系统访问的最佳预测指标。这表明, 与其它气候变量(包括其它温度的衍生变量)相比, 日平均最高气温对游客的旅行决策起着更直接的作用。我们还发现, 一旦月平均最高气温超过25度, 有三个国家公园(拱门国家公园、峡谷地国家公园、国会山国家公园)的游客数量会下降。然而, 对于布莱斯峡谷和锡安国家公园来说, 每月的访问量仍在增加, 远超过这个门槛。这些公园的地球物理特征似乎调节日平均最高气温与访问量的关系。常见的“倒U形”曲线不应被视为温度与访问量关系的普遍规律。我们还发现, 降水量是整个区域系统访问量的一个糟糕的预测因子, 但却是影响布莱斯峡谷游客出行决策的一个重要因素。布莱斯峡谷是唯一一个提供滑雪户外娱乐机会的公园。未来的研究不应忽视降水可能是影响游客出行决策的重要因素。通过在两个不同的尺度上进行分析, 我们发现, 区域范围影响访问量的重要因素与地方范围影响访问量的重要因素存在差异。尺度在分析气候与访问量关系方面不可忽视。

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• nature-based tourism
• outdoor recreation
• Utah
• weather

关键词:

• 气候变化
• 自然旅游
• 户外游憩
• 犹他州
• 天气

Acknowledgement

This research was supported in part by a grant from Utah State University Extension.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. We are working from the definition of a tourism system as the combination of tourist generating regions, the tourist destination region, and the transit region. Our study is focused specifically on the tourist destination region, defined as the ‘locations which attract tourists to stay temporarily, and in particular those features which inherently contribute to that attraction’ (Leiper, 1979, p. 397).

2. Panel data describe a sample of units (in this case, national parks) which are repeatedly measured over time (in this case, each month from January 1979 to December 2014). When panel data describe a relatively few number of units over a long time period (small N, large t) they are described as a macro panel (Hsiao, 2014).

Additional information

Funding

Utah State University Extension.

Notes on contributors

Jordan W. Smith

Jordan W. Smith is the Director of the Institute of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism and an Asssistant Professor in the Department of Environment and Society. His research examines how humans make behavioral and planning adaptations in response to rapidly changing environmental conditions.

Emily Wilkins

Emily J. Wilkins is a Ph.D. student at Utah State University in the Department of Environment and Society and is also a part of the Climate Adaptation Science program. Her research focuses on climate change and outdoor recreation systems.

Riana Gayle

Riana Gayle is a M.S. student at Utah State University in the Department of Environment and Society. Her research focuses on water policy in response to climate change and drought.

Chase C. Lamborn

Chase C. Lamborn is a Ph.D. student at Utah State University in the Department of Environment and Society. His research focuses on climate change adaptation amongst fishers, outfitter/guides, the fishing industry, and fisheries m anagement agencies.