Mindful continuation? Stakeholder preferences for future tourism development during the COVID-19 crisis

Figures & data

Figure 1. Northern Devon. (Source: England and Wales map: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.3.0. Boundaries: MapIt UK licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Roads: © Ordnance Survey OpenMap Local licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.).

Figure 2. An indicative overview of the research programme. (Source: authors).

Table 1. Brief descriptive summary of the three scenarios for Northern Devon. (Source: authors).

Scenario name	Summary
Business-as-usual	In this scenario, tourist consumption still mainly focuses on popular, ‘honey pot’ sites. The natural environment is appreciated, but visitor pressures lead to its gradual deterioration at key sites. Destination managers try to protect nature and heritage, but the costs of maintenance are growing, despite effective management at some sites. There are seasonal peaks and troughs in visitor numbers and spend, impacting business and creating seasonal (un)employment. Natural and cultural heritage is still accessed by car leading to congestion at peak times. There is some outward migration of local people as property prices rise. Local distinctiveness is slowly fading in some towns and villages.
Less Regulation	In this scenario, profit is the motivating factor and there is less regulation of the private sector in tourism. This leads to over-development of the built environment and a loss of habitats. Pressure to build more tourism facilities in protected landscapes rises. As natural and cultural heritage becomes more commodified, profit increases for some businesses, but local businesses do not benefit proportionately. New products and offers for tourists lead to rising visitor numbers and increased pressure on the natural environment. Social divides between tourists and residents become more apparent.
Responsibility and Custodianship	In this scenario, stakeholders take shared responsibility for the natural environment. This is enhanced by pro-environmental behaviours and financial contributions from visitors and local businesses. More visitor spend is retained in the local economy and new business opportunities emerge from a vibrant local culture and improved natural heritage. The economic benefits of tourism are more evenly spread across the destination, year and local communities. There are more green travel options and reduced congestion. Visitors understand the impacts tourism has on the locality, and are better informed about the range of sites and activities available.

Table 2. Summary of the four empirical studies. (Source: authors).

Date	Research intervention name	Delivery method	Sampling	Stakeholder focus	Length	N=	Presentation of scenarios	Approach to analysis
June 2021	Tourism Futures workshop	Online workshop/ focus group	Purposive	Regional policy makers, planners and experts	120 minutes	9	Verbal presentation, images and GIS maps	Thematic analysis
August 2021	Northern Devon Nature Tourism Business Survey	Online and postal questionnaire	Stratified, purposive	Tourism businesses in Northern Devon	30 questions	56	Descriptive title and short written summary	Descriptive statistics (SPSS)
August 2021	North Devon Biosphere User Survey	In-person questionnaire at 10 key sites in the Biosphere Reserve	Quotas at sites	Residents	22 questions	125	Descriptive title and short summary of scenarios read to participants	Descriptive statistics (SPSS)
				Non-residents (tourists and day-visitors)	27 questions	299
January 2022	Northern Devon Tourism Panel Survey	Online panel questionnaire	Stratified	Tourists who had overnight stay in 2021	32 questions	497	Short description of scenarios given, without descriptive titles	Descriptive and inferential statistics (SPSS)

Table 3. Scenario preferences stated by stakeholders in three questionnaire surveys. (Source: authors - scenario descriptors refer to Table 1).

Scenario Descriptor	Preference rank (choice)	Study
		2. Business Survey		3. User: Non-resident		3. User: Resident		4. Panel Survey
		Count	%	Count	%	Count	%	Count	%
Business-as-usual	1	11	23.40%	74	33.50%	34	31.50%	164	33.00%
	2	34	72.30%	143	64.70%	68	63.00%	227	45.80%
	3	2	4.30%	4	1.80%	6	5.60%	106	21.30%
Less Regulation	1	2	4.30%	8	3.10%	3	2.50%	121	24.30%
	2	5	10.60%	7	2.70%	7	5.90%	140	28.20%
	3	40	85.10%	241	94.10%	108	91.50%	236	47.50%
Responsibility and Custodianship	1	34	72.30%	143	65.00%	73	67.00%	212	42.70%
	2	8	17.00%	66	30.00%	32	29.40%	130	26.20%
	3	5	10.60%	11	5.00%	4	3.70%	155	31.20%

Table

Research intervention/ output	Data Availability Statement
Modelling and mapping tourism pressures and opportunities	Report on the participatory GIS methodology and outputs available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129054
Pressure and Opportunity maps for North Devon Biosphere Reserve	The data that support the findings of this study are openly available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129076.
Three Scenarios for the future of Tourism in North Devon Biosphere Reserve	The data that support the findings of this study are openly available on Open Research Exeter at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129112
Tourism Futures Workshop	A summary of method and the findings are openly available on Open Research Exeter at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129162
	A transcript of the workshop is not publically available as it contains information that identifies participants. Contact corresponding author (TJW) for access to excerpts.
Northern Devon Tourism Business Survey 2021	A report on research, aggregate findings and a copy of the survey instrument are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129075
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from Torridge District Council. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of Torridge District Council.
North Devon Biosphere Reserve User Survey 2021	A copy of the survey instrument and information about the methods are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129189
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from North Devon Biosphere Reserve. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for this study. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of North Devon Biosphere Reserve.
Tourism Panel Survey 2022	A copy of the survey instrument and information about the methods are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129190
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author (TJW). Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of North Devon Biosphere Reserve.

Expanded data availability statement

Table

Research intervention/ output	Data Availability Statement
Modelling and mapping tourism pressures and opportunities	Report on the participatory GIS methodology and outputs available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129054
Pressure and Opportunity maps for North Devon Biosphere Reserve	The data that support the findings of this study are openly available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129076.
Three Scenarios for the future of Tourism in North Devon Biosphere Reserve	The data that support the findings of this study are openly available on Open Research Exeter at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129112
Tourism Futures Workshop	A summary of method and the findings are openly available on Open Research Exeter at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129162
	A transcript of the workshop is not publically available as it contains information that identifies participants. Contact corresponding author (TJW) for access to excerpts.
Northern Devon Tourism Business Survey 2021	A report on research, aggregate findings and a copy of the survey instrument are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129075
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from Torridge District Council. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of Torridge District Council.
North Devon Biosphere Reserve User Survey 2021	A copy of the survey instrument and information about the methods are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129189
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from North Devon Biosphere Reserve. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for this study. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of North Devon Biosphere Reserve.
Tourism Panel Survey 2022	A copy of the survey instrument and information about the methods are available on Open Research Exeter: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/129190
	The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author (TJW). Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data are available from corresponding author (TJW) with the permission of North Devon Biosphere Reserve.

Data availability statement

The studies on which this paper is based are available in aggregate form on Open Research Exeter (ORE), deposited at https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/. The data supporting the studies may be made available to third parties, subject to written authorisation and appropriate permissions being secured. Please contact [email protected] if you are interested in obtaining access to the data.