Marriage and cohabitation under uncertainty: the role of narratives of the future during the COVID-19 pandemic

Figures & data

Table 1. The effect of different randomized scenarios concerning the end of the pandemic on cohabitation intentions (post-treatment – pre-treatment).

	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6
	Pooled	Controls	Men	Women	No tertiary	Tertiary
Treatment (ref.: 3 months)
6 months	0.091	0.039	0.117	−0.066	0.531*	−0.517
	(0.237)	(0.235)	(0.337)	(0.331)	(0.319)	(0.342)
12 months	0.076	−0.048	0.325	−0.420	0.253	−0.401
	(0.236)	(0.234)	(0.349)	(0.327)	(0.360)	(0.308)
2 years	−0.026	−0.076	0.127	−0.298	0.303	−0.543*
	(0.235)	(0.233)	(0.359)	(0.311)	(0.342)	(0.324)
>2 years	0.305	0.296	0.551*	−0.019	0.446	0.004
	(0.233)	(0.230)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.333)	(0.329)
Imaginary (cohabit)	0.364***	0.379***	0.412***	0.347***	0.368***	0.406***
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.055)	(0.062)	(0.063)	(0.053)
Cohabit intentionst	−0.507***	−0.553***	−0.558***	−0.538***	−0.542***	−0.581***
	(0.033)	(0.036)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.051)	(0.049)
Recall	−0.427**	−0.435**	−0.538*	−0.328	−0.786**	0.062
	(0.213)	(0.213)	(0.289)	(0.314)	(0.314)	(0.278)
Obs.	1096	1096	544	552	577	519
R-squared	0.265	0.304	0.317	0.329	0.303	0.347

Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Models M2 to M6 control for: sex; age and age²; risk aversion; area of residence; educational attainment; and both partners’ employment condition before and after the pandemic outbreak.

Table 2. The effect of different randomized scenarios concerning the end of the pandemic on marriage intentions (post-treatment – pre-treatment).

	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6
	Pooled	Controls	Men	Women	No tertiary	Tertiary
Treatment (ref.: 3 months)
6 months	−0.068	−0.080	0.187	−0.283	−0.150	−0.015
	(0.159)	(0.156)	(0.230)	(0.213)	(0.211)	(0.229)
12 months	−0.399**	−0.498***	−0.300	−0.678***	−0.550**	−0.521**
	(0.170)	(0.167)	(0.224)	(0.247)	(0.231)	(0.244)
2 years	−0.628***	−0.608***	−0.578**	−0.656***	−0.787***	−0.519**
	(0.170)	(0.166)	(0.232)	(0.235)	(0.228)	(0.245)
>2 years	−0.694***	−0.711***	−0.501**	−0.879***	−0.933***	−0.523*
	(0.184)	(0.179)	(0.234)	(0.276)	(0.239)	(0.270)
Imaginary (marriage)	0.311***	0.340***	0.294***	0.383***	0.309***	0.390***
	(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.033)
Marriage intentionst	−0.467***	−0.523***	−0.454***	−0.577***	−0.489***	−0.565***
	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.035)
Recall	0.221	0.160	0.138	0.162	0.003	0.418
	(0.192)	(0.189)	(0.235)	(0.299)	(0.251)	(0.289)
Cohabiting	0.319***	0.051	0.069	−0.029	0.030	0.043
	(0.115)	(0.123)	(0.168)	(0.182)	(0.169)	(0.187)
Obs.	1846	1846	861	985	1035	811
R-squared	0.256	0.305	0.289	0.338	0.288	0.354

Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Models M2 to M6 control for: sex; age and age²; risk aversion; area of residence; educational attainment; and both partners’ employment condition before and after the pandemic outbreak.