Social class, economic and political grievances and radical left voting: The role of macroeconomic performance

Figures & data

Figure 1. Conceptual model including hypotheses.

Figure 2. Radical left party success per country averaged across ESS rounds.

Table 1. Multilevel logistic regression analysis of radical left voting, mediation social class.

	Model 1						Model 2
	B		SE	AME		SE	B		SE	AME		SE
Intercept	−1.703	***	0.142				−1.934	***	0.155
Independent variable
Social class (ref. = higher classes)
Lower classes	0.324	***	0.021	0.029	***	0.003	0.203	***	0.021	0.017	***	0.003
Mediating variables
Dissatisfaction with the economy							0.074	***	0.005	0.006	***	0.001
Dissatisfaction with democracy							0.091	***	0.005	0.008	***	0.001
Dissatisfaction with income inequality							0.528	***	0.011	0.045	***	0.004
Contextual control variables
Wealth – Country	−0.003		0.011	−0.000		0.001	0.006		0.011	0.001		0.001
Wealth – Year	0.001		0.003	0.000		0.000	0.002		0.003	0.000		0.000
Unemployment – Country	−0.083		0.043	−0.007		0.004	−0.109	*	0.047	−0.009	*	0.004
Unemployment – Year	0.038	***	0.011	0.003	**	0.001	0.009		0.011	0.001		0.001
Income inequality – Country	0.106	*	0.043	0.009	*	0.004	0.074		0.047	0.006		0.004
Income inequality – Year	−0.016		0.037	−0.001		0.003	−0.031		0.036	−0.003		0.003
Individual control variables
Male	−0.102	***	0.018	−0.009	***	0.002	0.018		0.019	0.002		0.002
Age (/10)	0.003		0.006	0.000		0.001	−0.024	***	0.006	−0.002	***	0.001
Education (ref. = tertiary)
Primary	−0.132	***	0.028	−0.012	***	0.003	−0.256	***	0.029	−0.022	***	0.003
Secondary	−0.183	***	0.023	−0.016	***	0.003	−0.277	***	0.024	−0.024	***	0.003
Religious	−0.947	***	0.021	−0.084	***	0.008	−0.851	***	0.021	−0.073	***	0.007
Migrant	0.082		0.043	0.007		0.004	0.111	*	0.044	0.010	*	0.004
Eastern European country	−0.108		0.401	−0.010		0.036	0.136		0.437	0.012		0.038
Variance components
Variance country (level 3)	0.273						0.330
Variance country-year (level 2)	0.081						0.078

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Notes: B = logit coefficient, SE = standard error, AME = average marginal effect.

Table 2. Multilevel logistic regression analysis of radical left voting, moderation social class.

	Model 3a (wealth)			Model 3b (unemployment)			Model 3c (inequality)
	B		SE	B		SE	B		SE
Intercept	−1.698	***	0.145	−1.698	***	0.145	−1.698	***	0.145
Independent variables
Social class (ref. = higher classes)
Lower classes	0.260	**	0.092	0.270	**	0.091	0.275	**	0.091
Moderating variables
Wealth – Country	−0.001		0.011	−0.001		0.011	−0.001		0.011
Wealth – Year	0.001		0.003	0.001		0.003	0.001		0.003
Unemployment – Country	−0.083		0.044	−0.084		0.044	−0.083		0.044
Unemployment – Year	0.036	**	0.011	0.035	**	0.012	0.036	**	0.011
Income inequality – Country	0.119	**	0.044	0.119	**	0.044	0.118	**	0.044
Income inequality – Year	−0.015		0.036	−0.015		0.036	−0.020		0.038
Interaction terms
Lower classes * Country	−0.004		0.005	0.011		0.027	−0.005		0.026
Lower classes * Year	−0.001		0.003	0.003		0.009	0.013		0.031
Variance components
Variance country (level 3)	0.286			0.286			0.287
Variance lower classes (level 3)	0.132			0.135			0.135
Variance country-year (level 2)	0.077			0.077			0.077
Variance lower classes (level 2)	0.020			0.020			0.019

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Notes: B = logit coefficient, SE = standard error. Models include control variables.

Figure 3. Average marginal effects of economic and political grievances across the range of the indicators of macroeconomic performance.