Probabilistic modelling of the concept of anticipation in aviation

Abstract

Two problems concerning anticipation effort as an important cognitive resource for improved avionics safety are addressed: (1) assessment of the probability that the random actual (‘subjective’) anticipation time is below the (also random) available (‘objective’) time and (2) evaluation of the likelihood of success of the random short-term anticipation from the predetermined (non-random) long-term anticipation. Unlike the traditional statistical approach, when experimentations are done first and are followed by statistical analyses, our novel concept suggests that probabilistic predictive modelling is done first and is followed by experimentation. The concept proceeds from the fundamental understanding that nobody and nothing is perfect and that the difference between a success and a failure in a particular effort, a situation, or a mission is, in effect, ‘merely’ the difference in the level of the never-zero probability of failure.

Keywords:

• aviation
• anticipation
• cognitive load
• modelling
• probabilistic assessments

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge, with thanks, valuable comments made by Dr C.H.M. Nieuwenhuis, Technology Segment Human Factors and Cognition, Corporate R&T / Thales Group, as well as the insightful comments made by the paper reviewers.

Relevance to ergonomics theory

The problems of the assessment of the probability that the random actual anticipation time is below the (also random) available time and of the likelihood of success of the STA from the predetermined LTA are addressed.

Acronyms

• EVD = Extreme-value distribution

• FOM = Figures of merit

• HCF = Human capacity factor

• HF = Human factor

• LTA = Long-term anticipation

• MWL = Mental workload

• PPM = Probabilistic predictive modelling

• STA = Short-term anticipation

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ephraim Suhir

Ephraim Suhir is a fellow of the American Physical Society, the Institute of Physics, UK, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Society of Optical Engineers, International Microelectronics and Packaging Society, and the Society of Plastics Engineers. He is Fulbright Scholar in information technologies, State Department, USA, and Foreign Full Member of the National Academy of Engineering, Ukraine. Ephraim has authored about 300 technical publications (patents, books, book chapters, technical papers) and received numerous professional awards in various fields of engineering and applied science.

Sami Lini

Sami Lini received the MS degree in cognitive engineering from the National School of Cognitics, Bordeaux, France, in 2009. He obtained the PhD degree in cognitive engineering in 2013 for his work with Thales Avionics and the National School of Cognitics on user-centred design of decision supports for commercial jet pilots. He is currently conducting a postdoc about innovative user-centred design processes. His research interests include human factors, simulation, aeronautics, and wearable computing in an applied perspective.

Christophe Bey

Christophe Bey received the MS degree in cognitive engineering from the National School of Cognitics, Bordeaux, France. He is currently working toward the PhD degree in human factors engineering applied to aerospace. He completed his first half of his professional career as a fighter pilot for the Air Force in various squadrons including the Lafayette Escadrille. In a second time, he joined the operational test centre as an expert on night missions. After more than two decades spent in test centre as experimenter in flight, he became an expert in human factors for the French Air Force and the Department of Defense. He will represent the NATO in several research institutions, operational standardisation within the Aviation Medicine & Human Factors. His research interests include human factors, aeronautics, aerospace medicine, knowledge management, cognitive science, and ergonomics.

Jean-Marc Salotti

Jean-Marc Salotti is a professor in computer science at Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Cognitique, Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux, France. He is a member of the Cognitics and Human Engineering team of the Intégration du Matériau au Système CNRS laboratory. His main research fields are robotics and human system interactions in the human spaceflight domain.

Sylvain Hourlier

Sylvain Hourlier MD, MSc in human factors, retired from the Air Force as a flight surgeon colonel after being a human factors senior research scientist in the French Defense Institute for Biomedicine for 15 years. His major work covered the Rafale pilot assistant, Military ATC, Tigre Helicopter HMI, and operational military night vision. He was in charge of Airbus Zero-G onboard medical security and flew more than 1200 parabolas between 2004 and 2009. He joined Thales in 2009 as human factors specialist and design authority for the aerospace business, in Le Haillan, near Bordeaux. He is also scientific coordinator and co-manager of HEAL, the first laboratory of ALBATROS, the Thales Group/University of Bordeaux joined research initiative and Thales representative at ESA (European Space Agency) in Cologne. In 2013, he was appointed human factor (HF) senior expert for the Avionics Division. His main HF field of interest is cognitive resources management and its application in the aerospace domain, military and civil. His current work covers ecologic cognitive strategies for the next generation cockpit displays.

Bernard Claverie

Bernard Claverie is a psychologist and medical physiologist. He is university professor, and director of the National Superior School of Cognitics (cognitive technology) in Bordeaux, France. He created the Department of Cognitive Science at the University of Bordeaux, and the Laboratory of Neuropsychology and Cognitive Psychophysiology of the Bordeaux University Hospital. Today, he is an expert for the relations between Digital Technology and Man, for the French Ministry of Research. He is affiliated to laboratoire de l'Intégration du Matériau au Systéme (CNRS UMR 5218) in his research activities.