Identifying risks and emergent risks across sociotechnical systems: the NETworked hazard analysis and risk management system (NET-HARMS)

ABSTRACT

Accidents are a systems phenomenon and multiple methods are available to enable retrospective analysis of accidents through this lens. However, the same cannot be said for the methods available for forecasting risk and accidents. This paper describes a new systems-based risk assessment method, the NETworked hazard analysis and risk management system (NET-HARMS), that was designed to support practitioners in identifying (1) risks across overall work systems, and (2) emergent risks that are created when risks across the system interact with one another. An overview of NET-HARMS is provided and demonstrated through a case study application. An initial test of the method is provided by comparing case study outcomes (i.e. predicted risks) with accident data (i.e. actual risks) from the domain in question. Findings show that NET-HARMS is capable of forecasting systemic and emergent risks and that it could identify almost all risks that featured in the accidents in the comparison data-set.

KEYWORDS:

• Systems thinking; risk assessment; emergence; risk decision-making; risk practitioner

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the feedback of the two reviewers whose comments strengthened this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Paul M. Salmon's contribution to this article and research programme is supported through an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT140100681). Natassia Goode's contribution was funded through the State of Queensland through the Department of Science, Information Technology and Information, Advance Queensland Research.

Notes on contributors

Clare Dallat

Clare Dallat is a researcher within the Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems at the University of the Sunshine Coast. Her research focuses on the development of systems-based risk assessment methods.

Paul M. Salmon

Natassia Goode is a senior research fellow and theme leader within the Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems at the University of the Sunshine Coast.

Natassia Goode

Paul Salmon is an Australian research council future fellow and holds a chair in Human Factors at the University of the Sunshine Coast (USC). He is the inaugural director of the Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems at USC.