Can current political developments in Nigeria undermine its territorial integrity?

ABSTRACT

Nigeria is currently embroiled in festering internal political crisis that could undermine its territorial integrity. The centripetal forces that have held the fragile union of various nationalities in Nigeria are waning, due to continuous political tensions orchestrated by unjust and unfair treatment of citizens, bolstered by ethnic and religious differences. The political tensions were tremendously heightened by the 2015 presidential election, which elicited fears that pointed to disastrous consequences. Three years after, the tensions are yet to abate, with increased calls for self-determination by different parts of the country. This provoked the need to investigate the political undercurrents that have persisted in the country, especially those experienced during the 2015 election, to understand how they may have shaped current events in Nigeria. The conceptual framework of this work was guided by the geopolitical theory of “politics of failure”. Connection of current events to Nigeria’s constitutional history was made, and the role it played in foisting a fragile foundation for the country was explored. Geospatial techniques were used to assess political dynamics in the country and their implication on the shrinking ligaments of Nigeria’s unity. This study found that the 2015 general election revealed a strongly divided country. Emerging political fault lines suggest that there is a strong potential of its eventual breakup. With the approaching general elections in 2019, there are indications the country might disintegrate in a violent way, if certain issues are not urgently addressed. Measures including extensive devolution of power, confederation, conduct of self-determination referendum and proportional representation were explored as possible panaceas to the problem.

Notes

1. Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe from Southern Nigeria, who was Governor General and President from 1960–1966, was merely a ceremonial head of state and the main political power resided with Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (from Northern Nigerian) who was the Prime Minister during that period.

2. Used interchangeably with northern Nigeria. Likewise, the South, for southern Nigeria.

3. Encompassing Ijaw and other minority ethnic nationalities in the Niger Delta.

4. Igbo ethnic nationality.

5. A former chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) revealed that No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1816.

6. Secretary of State for the Colonies.

7. Total revenue and expenditure in 1913 from Southern Nigeria Protectorate was £2,668,197 and £2,096,311, while that from the Northern Nigeria Protectorate was £794,310 and £820,490, respectively (Lugard 2016).

8. “Southern Nigeria, on the other hand, presented a picture which was in almost all points the exact converse of that in the North” (Lugard 2016).

9. Chief Anthony Enahoro.

10. A section of cities and towns in Northern Nigeria, designated to non-Hausa–Fulani indigenous residents.

11. Frederick Lugard was in 1897 appointed by the RNC as the head of the West African Frontier Force tasked with stopping Fulani resistance and possible French incursions in the northwest area. In 1900, Lugard was appointed High Commissioner of the newly created Northern Nigeria Protectorate and he governed till 1806, before leaving for Hong Kong. By 1912 he was brought back to Nigeria to simultaneously administer the Southern Nigeria Protectorate and the Northern Nigeria Protectorate from 1912 to 1914, as the Governor.

12. The colonial administrators had to impose the warrant chief system in the South Eastern Nigeria, in order to implement indirect rule (Afigbo 1967).

13 For example, Lugard’s estimated population of 1914 (Lugard 1916).

14. Richard’s Constitution of 1946, where the number of Northerners in the government exceeded those of the other regions (African Heritage 2012; Okonkwo 1962).

15. Henry L. Bretton, an American, Professor who was convinced the 1950s election (regional in 1956/57 and national parliamentary in 1959) was rigged, wrote that “… the very construction of the Northern Region, in the form in which it entered the era of independence, represents one of the greatest acts of gerrymandering in history.”

16. A former military head of state.

17. The Eastern Region had the fastest growing economy in 1960’s under the leadership of Dr M.I. Okpara, the Premier of the region, who introduced the agricultural revolution policy (Anya 2014; Schoneveld 2014).

18. On 11th of January, 1976.

19. Efforts were made by the government to extradite General Yakubu Gowon, from the UK to stand trial for allegedly being involved in the plot failed. He was subsequently dismissed in absentia from the Army, but later pardoned by President Shehu Shagari (Oyeyemi 2002).

20. The “federal character” principle, enshrined in Nigeria’s Constitution since 1979, aims to ensure that appointments to public service institutions in Nigeria justly and fairly reflect the various diversity of the country (linguistic, ethnic, religious, and geographic).

21. In a recent meeting with the US president, Donald Trump on the 30th of April, 2018, Buhari claimed that the incessant attacks in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen were being perpetrated by militants dislodged from Libay after the overthrow of Muamicon Iconis5zarais3mar Gadhafi. “The usual herdsmen in Nigeria never carried anything more than a stick, and occasionally a machete to cut down foliage and feed their animals. These ones are carrying AK47. So I don’t think people should underrate what happened in Libya…this is what is aggravating the situation” (Obiejesi 2018).