Measuring the resilience of English Premier league clubs to economic recessions

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive information for collected data

Variable	Observations	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Match day	522	19.37	23.11	0.63	111.64
Commercial	524	23.67	38.32	0.01	276.10
Broadcast	524	42.81	42.72	1.20	220.00
Wages	526	52.43	53.01	2.70	295.90
Profit Club	526	−1.94	25.89	−197.48	138.90
Profit Services Sector	440	106,926	33,790	66,143	177,034
Profit UK	440	143,793	36,020	97,667	211,946
GVA Club	526	50.49	59.26	−31.07	388.14
GVA Services Sector	420	1,070,549	255,849	654,754	1,520,353
GVA UK	420	1,381,479	297,306	897,666	1,908,608

Table 2. Premier League revenue, expenditure, and profits by year

Year	Match day Revenue	Commercial Revenue	Broadcast Revenue	Total Revenue	Players bought	Players sold	Net Transfer Cost	Wages cost	Profit before tax
1993	89.22	66.85	51.24	205.31	65.22	49.04	16.18	97.07	11.67
1994	108.46	93.06	54.44	255.04	78.25	49.56	28.69	115.42	8.74
1995	134.22	122.34	73.34	329.89	111.85	94.73	17.12	141.98	6.37
1996	150.84	121.55	76.19	348.60	169.67	121.77	47.91	160.51	−62.96
1997	183.45	154.04	121.95	458.94	213.03	102.16	110.86	213.90	−2.31
1998	199.04	168.39	182.25	550.08	180.43	128.90	51.53	288.96	45.42
1999	235.36	179.96	215.75	631.08	293.49	129.00	164.50	372.80	16.32
2000	252.12	203.31	267.10	722.21	288.27	139.70	148.57	453.67	−28.76
2001	279.65	256.93	364.79	901.32	380.88	174.79	206.10	538.99	−6.50
2002	315.29	318.92	506.69	1141.33	418.62	152.57	266.05	722.10	−135.09
2003	327.70	314.17	527.21	1169.31	182.60	69.51	113.09	692.17	−99.60
2004	353.52	317.45	591.17	1262.19	386.15	39.31	346.85	759.68	−118.71
2005	398.14	325.93	599.73	1323.79	338.51	132.16	206.35	768.44	−73.15
2006	413.57	356.06	620.68	1390.31	427.53	195.70	231.83	852.83	−176.12
2007	470.26	398.02	594.98	1463.26	476.06	229.67	246.39	936.90	−268.17
2008	510.77	458.30	925.58	1894.65	664.79	323.49	341.31	1181.20	−183.57
2009	515.90	446.66	972.93	1935.49	603.00	503.34	99.66	1297.88	−262.89
2010	510.23	458.24	1064.14	2032.62	562.66	313.51	249.15	1393.03	−330.10
2011	521.82	606.44	1164.05	2297.51	730.56	292.66	437.90	1580.68	−289.39
2012	518.00	628.32	1203.10	2349.41	562.08	338.65	223.43	1622.52	−137.73
2013	566.67	803.36	1182.89	2552.92	695.96	301.59	394.36	1778.90	−221.25
2014	592.09	915.74	1749.66	3257.49	963.94	380.78	583.16	1888.36	197.82
2015	580.51	1012.04	1770.50	3363.05	1118.13	477.60	640.53	2029.51	126.50
2016	615.37	1103.90	1922.92	3642.19	1336.88	520.22	816.67	2244.42	−94.05
2017	605.64	1202.19	2763.15	4570.98	1599.88	766.09	833.78	2499.70	571.11
2018	663.22	1326.78	2823.08	4824.98	2351.86	1075.34	1276.52	2825.26	467.97
Total	10,111.05	12,358.95	22,389.49	44,873.95	15,200.29	7101.81	8098.48	27,456.89	−1038.43

Figure 1. Premier League profit before tax and Gross Value Added over time, Index (100 = 1993). Periods of major economic downtowns shown by shaded area (UK GVA down in dark grey, UK company profit contraction in light grey). Renewal of Premier League broadcast rights shown by vertical dotted line.

Figure 2. Resistance and recovery by club to Service Sector changes in GVA. Contraction 2009. Expansion 1999–2008, 2010–2018. N = 17.

Figure 3. Resistance and recovery by club to UK changes in GVA. Contraction 2009. Expansion 1999–2008, 2010–2018. N = 17.

Figure 4. Resistance and recovery by club to Service Sector changes in profit. Contraction 1999–2001, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2016–2017. N = 34.

Figure 5. Resistance and recovery by club to UK changes in profit. Contraction 1999–2001, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2016. N = 31.

Table 3. Summary of club resilience (using profit), length of time in EPL, and owner financing

Resilient	Years in league	Times promoted to EPL	Owner financing as a proportion of total income (2008–2017)
Arsenal	26	0	0%
Coventry City	9	0
Derby County	7	2
Strong resistance to contraction but weak in recovery
Bournemouth	3	1	92%
Charlton Athletic	7	1
Leeds United	12	0
Manchester United	26	0	20%
Sheffield Wednesday	8	0
Stoke City	10	1	50%
Tottenham Hotspur	26	0	2%
Watford	5	3	60%
Strong recovery but weak resistance to contraction
Liverpool	26	0	40%
Manchester City	22	0	90%
Southampton	19	1	39%
Swansea City	7	1
West Bromwich Albion	12	4
Wigan Athletic	8	1
Not resilient
Aston Villa	24	0
Birmingham City	7	3
Blackburn Rovers	18	1
Bolton Wanderers	13	3
Chelsea	26	0	86%
Crystal Palace	9	4	26%
Everton	26	0	51%
Fulham	13	1
Ipswich	5	1
Leicester City	12	4	71%
Middlesbrough	15	2
Newcastle United	23	2
Norwich City	8	6
Nottingham Forest	5	2
Portsmouth	7	1
QPR	7	2
Sunderland	16	4	66%
West Ham United	22	3	37%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	4	2

Table 4. 2018 club profits following hypothetical changes in revenue streams

	Match day Revenue	Commercial Revenue	Broadcast Revenue	Profit before tax	−80% Match day revenues	−40% Commercial revenues	−10% Broadcast revenues	−20% Broadcast revenues
Arsenal	98.51	124.67	180.10	70.21	1.26	20.35	52.20	34.19
Bournemouth	5.29	10.32	119.25	−10.94	−15.17	−15.07	−22.86	−34.79
Brighton and Hove Albion	18.52	10.64	110.27	12.08	−2.73	7.83	1.06	−9.97
Burnley	5.60	11.86	121.53	45.14	40.65	40.39	32.98	20.83
Chelsea	73.92	165.38	204.10	67.34	8.20	1.19	46.93	26.52
Crystal Palace	10.87	18.38	121.10	−38.16	−46.86	−45.51	−50.27	−62.38
Everton	16.32	42.83	130.00	−13.07	−26.12	−30.20	−26.07	−39.07
Huddersfield Town	4.82	10.57	109.84	29.66	25.80	25.43	18.68	7.69
Leicester City	12.87	21.79	124.22	1.58	−8.72	−7.14	−10.84	−23.27
Liverpool	81.00	154.00	220.00	125.14	60.34	63.54	103.14	81.14
Manchester City	56.62	232.32	211.52	10.44	−34.86	−82.49	−10.71	−31.87
Manchester United	109.80	276.10	204.10	26.10	−61.74	−84.34	5.69	−14.72
Newcastle United	23.94	28.38	126.41	22.94	3.79	11.58	10.29	−2.35
Southampton	19.21	16.41	117.00	34.85	19.49	28.29	23.15	11.45
Stoke City	7.70	18.60	100.89	−30.14	−36.30	−37.58	−40.23	−50.32
Swansea City	7.37	14.80	104.64	−3.20	−9.10	−9.12	−13.67	−24.13
Tottenham Hotspur	70.95	109.05	200.69	138.90	82.14	95.28	118.83	98.76
Watford	7.96	12.04	108.82	−31.64	−38.01	−36.45	−42.52	−53.40
West Bromwich Albion	7.43	15.35	101.98	−7.53	−13.47	−13.67	−17.72	−27.92
West Ham United	24.52	33.28	106.64	18.28	−1.34	4.97	7.62	−3.05
Total	663.22	1326.78	2823.08	467.97	−52.75	−62.74	185.66	−96.64