‘Garrison’ Democracy in Nigeria: The 2007 General Elections and the Prospects of Democratic Consolidation

Abstract

This paper undertakes a critical analysis of the 2007 Nigerian general elections, with emphasis on the ‘garrison’ process and its implications for the consolidation of democracy. It is argued that garrisoned electoral processes represent a powerful source of democratic instability that can threaten the consolidation of democracy. The paper illustrates these processes and concludes that much, however, will depend on how ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ manage their successes and failures, respectively. The greatest threats to the consolidation of democracy in the aftermath of the garrisoned elections relate to the handling of post-election issues, especially election petitions, tribunals and court processes, by all stakeholders in the democratisation process. So far, these issues would appear largely to have been properly handled by all affected parties, raising hopes of the possibility of mitigating potential pitfalls. Sustained efforts are required both to ensure that these democratic gains endure and to avoid democratic regression that could potentially lead to military intervention.

Acknowledgments

The first draft of this paper was written shortly after Nigeria's 2007 general elections when the author was with the Department of Political Science, University of Ilorin, Nigeria. He has since relocated to Redeemer's University, Nigeria. The paper benefited from the useful comments of two anonymous reviewers of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics to whom the author wishes to express his gratitude. He is also grateful for CCP's editorial input. For any errors of omission and/or commission, however, the author accepts sole responsibility.

Notes

Peter Lewis made this point at a panel that analysed the prospects of Nigeria's 2007 general elections in the US. Also on the Panel were Don Heflin, Deputy Director for the office of West African Affairs at the US State Department; Rotimi Suberu, a widely acclaimed expert on Nigerian government and politics at the University of Ibadan and Senior Fellow at the US Institute of Peace, and Robert Pastor, the African Union's Vice President (see Unger, 2007: 1).

The IG of Police made this known to police chiefs across the country in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory on 30 April 2007. This was beamed to the nation via the 9pm national network news of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), 30 April 2007.

The four justices of the Supreme Court who upheld the election of Yar'Adua are Niki Tobi, who delivered the lead judgment, Idris Legbo Kutigi, the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Aloysius Katsina-Alu, and Dahiru Musdapher.

According to Justice Oguntade, citing the law of evidence, the word ‘shall’ is very crucial, in that its usage leaves the judges no room to consider any other factor. This, he insisted, made it mandatory for the Electoral Commission to comply with section 45(2) of the Electoral Act.

The justices who rule against the election of Yar'Adua are George Oguntade, Walter Onnonghen and Aloma Mukhtar.

The report detailed how a majority of the justices were heavily compromised by Andoakaa, who the report claimed, ‘has earned a reputation as “Nigerian's most corrupt attorney general”’, in the words of a senior lawyer in Nigeria. The report claimed that its ‘source indicated that Aondoakaa spent $30 million to buy a favorable verdict from the Supreme Court’. James Ibori, a former governor of Delta state, who currently faces allegations of money laundering at the Federal High Court, Kaduna, reportedly heads the new group of advisers and associates who served as a pressure group that spearheaded the lobbying to reach an ‘understanding’ with the supreme court in the case (see Sahara Reporters, 2008).

Tell, a leading weekly magazine in Nigeria, tagged this development a ‘judicial coup’. This was with particular reference to the Rivers State case where Rotimi Amaechi, who did not run in the election, was returned to office by the Supreme Court (see Adekeye, 2007).

Yar'Adua made this statement to the judges at the opening ceremony of their retreat in Port Harcourt. This was at a time when the presidential election petition tribunal was close to making its pronouncements on the cases before them relating to the presidential election (see Orji, 2007; Daily Triumph, 2007).