Understanding the spatial variation of perceived threat outcomes in intergroup conflict: a case study of the ethnic and religious conflicts in Jos, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

In extant scholarship on intergroup conflict, perceived threat is portrayed as either positively linked with conflict occurrence or neutralizable by individuals’ internal psychological inhibitors, such as feelings about a past experience or encounter or pre-existing dovish disposition. Yet, conflict avoidance is possible even in the absence of such internal guardrails against destructive responses to threat. This comparative qualitative study of two similarly structured communities in Jos, Nigeria’s ethnic conflict hotbed, reveals that while perceived threat may create aggressive dispositions, as established in extant scholarship on intergroup conflict, conflict avoidance remains possible in the absence of both internal inhibitors and external coercion. The compared Jos communities, Angwan Doki and Dadin Kowa, are similar in terms of widespread fear of the outgroup and significant willingness to respond aggressively to threat. Yet, conflict avoidance was possible in the latter because its community leaders both wittingly and unwittingly confronted the underlying threat that drove people’s violent dispositions. Past variability analyses omit this dynamic of external malleability of perceived threat outcomes – aggression and violence. Generally, the findings show that low-tech threat management interventions are more effective at mitigating intergroup conflict in weak states than interventions that seek to forcefully suppress the threat.

KEYWORDS:

• Perceived threat
• ethnic conflict
• religious conflict
• communal violence
• conflict avoidance
• jos
• Nigeria

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Fritsche et al., ‘Collective reactions to threat’; Çakal et al., ‘Predicting support for collective action’; Rempel and Fisher, ‘Perceived threat’.

2. Kamans et al., ‘Power and threat’.

3. Hirschberger et al., ‘How is existential threat related to intergroup conflict’?

4. Rovenpor et al., ‘Meaning threat’.

5. Community leaders is used generically to refer to tribal Chiefs (Mai Angwa), Pastors, Imams, Mallams, and elders.

6. Danfulani, The Jos peace conference.

7. Orji, ‘Faith-based aid’.

8. Milligan, ‘Fighting for the right to exist’.

9. Ambe-Uwa, ‘Identity politics and the Jos crisis’.

10. Plotnicov, ‘Who owns Jos?’; Bonkat, ‘Survival strategies of market women’.

11. Krause, ‘A deadly cycle’; Tambo, ‘The “hill refuges”’.

12. Bonkat, ‘Survival strategies of market women’.

13. Krause, ‘A deadly cycle’; Plotnicov, ‘Who owns Jos’.

14. Plotnicov, ‘Who owns Jos?’ 6.

15. Higazi, ‘The Jos crisis’.

16. Segun and Jegede, ‘Ethnicisation,’ 39; Ambe-Uva, ‘Identity politics,’ 4.

17. Segun and Jegede, ‘Ethnicisation,’ 39.

18. Ambe-Uva, ‘Identity politics and the Jos crisis’; Krause, ‘A deadly cycle’; Higazi, ‘The Jos crisis.’

19. Segun and Jegede, ‘Ethnicisation of violent conflicts’.

20. Krause, ‘A deadly cycle’.

21. Segun and Jegede, ‘Ethnicisation’.

22. Fritsche et al., ‘Collective reactions to threat’; Cakal et al., ‘Predicting support’; McDoom, ‘The psychology of threat’; Kamans et al., ‘Power and threat’.

23. Rovenpor et al., ‘Meaning threat’; Hirschberger et al., ‘How is existential’; Jonas and Fritsche, ‘Destined to die but not to wage war’; Halperin et al., ‘Extinction threat and reciprocal threat reduction’; Garcia‐Retamero et al., ‘The impact of value similarity’.

24. A group of individuals with a shared identity.

25. Rempel and Fischer, ‘Perceived threat’.

26. Ibid.

27. McDoom, ‘The psychology of threat’.

28. Fritsche et al., ‘Collective reactions to threat’.

29. Ibid.

30. McDoom, ‘The psychology of threat’.

31. Fritsche et al., ‘Collective reactions to threat’.

32. Rempel and Fischer, ‘Perceived threat’.

33. Fritsche et al., ‘Collective reactions to threat’.

34. Kamans et al., ‘Power and threat’.

35. Ibid.

36. Ibid.

37. Garcia-Retamero et al., ‘The impact of value similarity’.

38. Ibid.

39. Kamans et al., ‘Power and threat’.

40. Ibid.

41. Cakal et al., ‘Predicting support’.

42. Garcia-Retamero et al., ‘The impact of value similarity’.

43. Hirschberger et al., ‘How is existential’.

44. Rovenpor et al., ‘Meaning threat’.

45. Ibid.

46. Ibid.

47. Ibid.

48. Jonas and Fritsche, ‘Destined to die’.

49. Ibid.

50. Lester, ‘An introduction’; Giorgi, A descriptive phenomenological method; Padilla-Díaz, ‘Phenomenology’.

51. Thomas, ‘A general inductive approach’.

52. Creswell, Qualitative inquiry and research design.

53. Interviews with several participants in Angwan Doki and Dadin Kowa, May-June 2019.

54. Interviews with several participants in Angwan Doki, May 2019.

55. Interviews with several Berom participants in Angwan Doki, May 2019.

56. Interviews with several Hausa participants in Angwan Doki, May 2019.

57. Interviews in Angwan Doki and Dadin Kowa, June 2019.

58. Interviews with Berom and Hausa Participants in Dadin Kowa, May-June 2019.

59. Interview with a Hausa Muslim participant in Dadin Kowa, June 2019.

60. Interviews with Berom Christian participants in Dadin Kowa, May-June 2019.

61. Interviews with Hausa Muslim participants in Dadin Kowa, June 2019.

62. Interviews with Christian and Muslim participants, May-June 2019.

63. Interview with Berom Christian participant, May 2019.

64. Interview with Hausa Muslim, June 2019.

65. Interview with Hausa Muslim participant, May 2019.

66. Interviews with Berom Christians and Hausa Muslims, May-June 2019.

67. Rovenpor et al., ‘Meaning threat’.

68. McDoom, ‘The psychology of threat’.

69. Hirschberger et al., ‘How is existential’.

70. Rovenpor et al., ‘Meaning threat’.

71. Hirschberger et al., ‘How is existential’.

72. Kamans et al., ‘Power and threat’.

73. Ibid.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Surulola Eke

Surulola Eke is a Banting Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen’s University, Canada. His research programme, which advances in three tracks, is at the intersection of Peace Science and Political Studies. Dr. Eke’s work explores the variable consequences of rights denial in the context of indigene-settler relations in West Africa, the linkages between two-tier citizenship and labour exploitation in these countries, and the potential for achieving sustainable agrarian futures through work formalisation. He has written more than two dozen papers, comprising book chapters, refereed journal articles, and invited lectures. Dr. Eke is also a recipient of numerous academic awards and fellowships.