Has the Cold War returned to East Asia?

Abstract

The rise of a non-democratic China as the world ‘s second largest economy, still officially subscribing to Communism or ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics’ as its ideology1, has raised the spectre of the return of the Cold War to Asia with the United States and China on opposing sides, with China backed by Russia, its former Cold War ally. But to what extent are there historical parallels between the Cold War and the current East Asian international relations system?

Notes

Professor James T.H. Tang is Dean and Professor of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University. He is a specialist in international relations, with special reference to China/Hong Kong and the Asia-Pacific region. Email: [email protected]

¹ In Xi Jinping's first speech as the new Chinese leader, after assuming his position as Party Secretary at the 18^th Party Congress in November 2012, he declared that, “we will ensure that our Party will remain at the core of leadership in advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Xinhua report on 19 November 2012. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012cpc/2012-11/19/content_15939817.htm. By adopting the term “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” – zhongguo tese de shehui zhuyi, the Chinese Communist Party has argued that it has not abandoned socialism by introducing foreign capital and the opening up the Chinese economy to market forces. See for example a report on Deng Xiaoping's remarks to visiting Japanese delegation in 1984, “Build Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” People's Daily, 30 June 1984. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/dengxp/vol3/text/c1220.html.

² See for example: Carlye A. Thayer, “A Maritime Test of Strength”, The Security Times, January 31, 2014; Geoff Dyer, “US vs China: is this the new cold war?” FT Magazine, 20 February 2014; Zachary Keck, “US-China Rivalry More Dangerous Than Cold War”, The Diplomat, 28 January 2014.

³ Geoff Dyer, The Contest of the Century: The New Era of Competition with China - And How America Can Win, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014).

⁴ John Mearsheimer, “The Rise of China Will Not Be Peaceful at All”, The Australian, 18 November 2005.

⁵ G. John Ikenberry “America's Challenge: The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal International Order”, New America Foundation, July 2011.

⁶ Zhihua Shen and Yafeng Xia, “Leadership transfer in the Asian revolution: Mao Zedong and the Asian Cominform”, Cold War History, (2014) 14:2, pp.195–213.

⁷ See Kent Calder, “Securing security through prosperity: the San Francisco System in comparative perspective”, The Pacific Review, Vo.l 17 No.1 March 2004: 135–157; James Baker, “America in Asia: Emerging Architecture for a Pacific Community”, Foreign Affairs 70, no. 5 (Winter 1991/92), pp. 1–18.

⁸ Jeremy Friedman, “Soviet policy in the developing world and the Chinese challenge in the 1960s”, Cold War History, Vol. 10, No. 2, May 2010, 247–272; speech by Chairman of the Delegation of the People's Republic of China, Deng Xiaoping, at the Special Session of the UN General Assembly, 10 April 1974.

⁹ Memorandum of Conversation on the meeting between Henry Kissinger and other American officials with Deng Xiaoping and Chinese officials on 26 November 1974 submitted to President Ford, p.2 in “National Security Adviser Kissinger Reports on USSR, China and Middle East Discussions, 1974–76”, collection at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum. Available online at http://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0331/1553934.pdf

¹⁰ Shirley A. Kan, US-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Report, 20 November 2013, p.1.

¹¹ Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005), p.17.

¹² US International Trade Commission data, quoted in Wayne M. Morrison, China-US Trade Issues, Congressional Research Service Report, 10 February 2014, p. 3.

¹³ Barry Buzan in “Security architecture in Asia: the interplay of regional and global levels”, The Pacific Review Vol 16, Issue 2, 2003.

¹⁴ Evelyn Goh, “Institutions and the great power bargain in East Asia: ASEAN's limited ‘brokerage’ role”, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific Vol. 11 (2011) pp.373–401.

¹⁵ Fareed Zakaria, Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest (London: Penguin Books, 2009).

¹⁶ See for example, Joseph S. Nye Jr., “The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010.

¹⁷ Richard Wike, Changing Global Perceptions of the U.S. in the Post-Sept. 11 Era: From Hyperpower to Declining Power Pew Global Attitudes Project, 7 September 2011; America's Place in the World, 2013, Pew Research Center, 2013.

¹⁸ C. Fred Bergsten, “Tow's Company” Letter to the Editor, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2009, Zbigniew Brzezinski, “The Group of Two that could change the World”, Financial Times, 13 January 2009.

¹⁹ Jeffrey Bader, Obama and China's Rise: An Insider's Account of America's Asia Strategy, (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2012).

²⁰ Thomas J. Christensen, “The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijing's Abrasive Diplomacy”, Foreign Affairs, March/April Vol. 90 No. 2, 2011.

²¹ Hilary Clinton, “America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, November 2011.

²² “US pivot risks Asia-Pacific cold war”, Asia Times June 13, 2013.

²³ Mark E. Manyin et al., “Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration's ‘Rebalancing’ Toward Asia”, Congressional Research Service, 28 March 2012.

²⁴ Ernest Z. Bower, “China reveals its hand on ASEAN in Phnom Penh”, East Asian Forum, 28 July 2012.

²⁵ The figures are from various Chinese government sources and international agencies compiled by Wayne M. Morrison in China's Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States, Congressional Research Service, 3 February 2014.

²⁶ Daniel H. Rosen and Thio Hanemann, New Realities in the US-China Investment Relationship, Rhodium Group report commissioned by the US Chamber of Commerce, April 2014.

²⁷ The two met at Sunnylands, California in June, 2013. See China Daily, 14 June 2013; David M. Lampton, “A New Type of Major-Power Relationship: Seeking a Durable Foundation for U.S.-China Ties”, in Asia Policy 16 (July 2013).

²⁸ Stephan Frühling, “When a Cold War in East Asia is not a Cold War”, East Asia Forum, 2 March 2014; Michishita Narushige and Peter van der Hoest “Another Cold War in Asia?”, ASAN Forum, 13 July 2013.

²⁹ Graham Allison “Avoiding Thucydides's Trap” Financial Times, August 22, 2012; Jane Perlezian, “Japan's Leader Compares Strain With China to Germany and Britain in 1914”, New York Times, 23 Jan 2014.

³⁰ Noah Feldman, Cool War: The Future of Global Competition (New York: Random House, 2013).