China's role in attaining the global 2°C target

Abstract

In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO₂ emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO₂ emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO₂ emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved.

Policy relevance

In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries’ emissions target up to 2050.

Keywords:

• China
• country studies
• emissions reduction
• emissions scenarios
• GHG emissions
• low-carbon development

Notes

The ERI has engaged in long-term research, developing and utilizing energy models, since 1992 (see Jiang et al., 2009).

Energy demand in the energy technology module is used as an input to modify the short- and mid-term energy demand in the societal, economic, and energy activities module. Thus, the energy analysis in the macroeconomic model better reflects the short- and mid-term energy activities of a region.

The figure of a 15% share of total primary energy for renewables includes sources of renewable energy that are not included in the national energy statistics, e.g. solar hot water heaters and rural household biogas digesters.