The EU ETS to 2030 and beyond: adjusting the cap in light of the 1.5°C target and current energy policies

Figures & data

Table 1. Annual and cumulated EU ETS GHG emissions in a globally cost-effective below-1.5°C pathway and in the EU Long-term Strategic Vision.

Gt CO2e	2015	2030	2040	2050	2016–2050
EU ETS GHG emissions, globally cost-effective below-1.5°C pathway	2.0	0.9	0.3	0.0	30
EU ETS GHG emissions, EU Long-Term Strategic Vision	2.0	1.2	0.3	0.0	33

Source: Own calculations. EU ETS emissions in the globally cost-effective below-1.5°C pathway are calculated based on data from the POLES-Enerdata model. EU ETS emissions are calculated using the average of the scenarios 1.5LIFE and 1.5TECH based on EU (2018d), Figures 60, 61, 90 and Table 9.

Figure 1. Base case and two alternative scenarios for the ETS cap 2021–2050 staying within a budget of 30 Gt CO₂e (2016–2050). Source: Own calculations.

Figure 2. Scenarios accounting for the EU Energy policy targets adopted in 2018. Source: Own calculations.

Table 2. Coal power generation in 2018 in countries with planned phase-outs of coal-fired power generation.

TWh in 2018	Lignite	Hard Coal	Total
Phase-out before 2030	108	208	316
Full phase-out by 2025 (AT, BE, FR, IE, IT, SE, SK, UK)	3	58	61
Full phase-out by 2030 (DK, EL, ES, FI, HU, NL, PT)	25	96	121
Partial phase-out by 2030 (Germany)	80	54	134

Source: own calculation based on Agora (2019). Coal phase-out in Germany is based on the proposal by the WSB (2019).

Note: The estimate for Germany assumes that power generation in phased-out plants (both lignite and hard coal) is proportional to the capacity. This is an optimistic estimate, as phased-out plants are likely to have fewer full load hours and moreover remaining capacities may partially compensate the phase-out.

Table 3. Planned national phase-outs of coal-fired power generation – Potential emissions reductions.

Mt CO2 compared to 2018	Lignite	Hard Coal	Total
Phase-out before 2030*	124	176	300
Full phase-out by 2025 (AT, BE, FR, IE, IT, SE, SK, UK)	3	49	52
Full phase-out by 2030 (DK, EL, ES, FI, HU, NL, PT)	29	81	110
Partial phase-out by 2030 (Germany)	92	46	138

Source: own calculation based on Agora (2019) and Icha (2019).

*Note: The estimate for Germany assumes that power generation in phased-out plants (both lignite and hard coal) is proportional to the capacity. This is an optimistic estimate, as phased-out plants are likely to have fewer full load hours and moreover remaining capacities may partially compensate the phase-out.

Figure 3. Scenarios accounting for national coal phase-outs by 2030. Source: Own calculations.

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