Modelling the economic effects of COVID-19 and possible green recovery plans: a post-Keynesian approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. The economic structure of the E3ME model.

Figure 2. Global GDP in each scenario.

Figure 3. Benefits of the GRP, GDP % difference from VAT scenario.

Table 1. Output by sectors, % difference from no-COVID baseline in 2020 and 2022.

	All scenarios 2020	COVID-19 ref 2022	VAT RP 2022	Green RP 2022
Agriculture	−8.7	−6.4	−5.8	−5.5
Energy and utilities	−10	−5.8	−5.2	−3.6
Basic manufacturing	−8.3	−2.4	−1.5	0.9
Advanced manufacturing	−8.7	−1.8	−0.7	6.4
Construction	1.3	−6.9	−6.1	−3.5
Consumer services	−13.1	−2.5	−0.6	1.6
Transport and comms	−13.7	−2.0	−0.7	0.9
Business services	−5.8	−3.0	−1.4	−0.8
Public services	−0.6	−3.1	−2.5	−2.7

Figure 4. Employment effects in all the scenarios, difference from no-COVID baseline.

Figure 5. CO₂ effects in all the scenarios, difference from no-COVID baseline.

Figure 6. Relative contribution of each GRP policy (excl VAT change).

Figure 7. Sensitivity testing of GDP impacts.

Figure 8. Sensitivity testing of employment impacts.