Scenarios for different ‘Future Indias’: sharpening energy and climate modelling tools

Figures & data

Table 1. Models in the scenario database.

Model	Number of Scenarios	Model Scope	Model type
AIM/CGE 2.1	6	Global	Inter-temporal general equilibrium optimization
AIM/Enduse 3.0	7	National	Bottom-up energy system optimization model
IMAGE 3.0.1	6	Global	Energy system optimization model
India MARKAL	7	National	Bottom-up energy system optimization model
MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.0	6	Global	Energy system optimization model
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.4	6	Global	Inter-temporal general equilibrium optimization
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0	6	Global	Inter-temporal general equilibrium optimization
Total	44	n.a.

Figure 1. Energy CO₂ emissions 2005–2050, all models, moderate and strong policy scenarios.

Figure 2. Scenario forecast GDP per capita growth rates, benchmarked against historical performance in emerging countries.

Note: MER = Market exchange rates. IND = India, CHN = China, KOR = South Korea, ZAF = South Africa, THA = Thailand, BRA = Brazil.

Figure 3. 2050 Final energy demand versus 2050 total GDP.

Figure 4. Industrial FEC per Capita, India scenarios for 2050 versus historical cross-country benchmarks.

Figure 5. Transport FEC per Capita, India scenarios for 2050 versus historical cross-country benchmarks.

Figure 6. Buildings FEC per Capita, India scenarios for 2050 versus historical cross-country benchmarks.

Figure 7. Carbon intensity of FEC in global versus national models and FEC Mix in 2010 and 2050 in moderate and strong policy scenarios.

Note: CI = carbon intensity. In the top two panels, solid lines represent moderate policy scenarios, dashed lines represent strong policy scenarios.

Figure 8. Carbon intensity of electricity generation.

Note: solid lines represent moderate policy scenarios, dashed lines represent strong policy scenarios.

Figure 9. Carbon intensity of TPES in global versus national models and FEC Mix in 2010 and 2050 in moderate and strong policy scenarios.

Note: in the top two panels, solid lines represent moderate policy scenarios, dashed lines represent strong policy scenarios.

Figure 10. Scenario summary, 2050 energy and CO₂ indicators, moderate policy scenarios.

Table 2. Scenario grouping and storylines.

Model	GDP	Energy Intensity	Carbon Intensity	Storyline
REMIND	Low	Very high	Low	Energy profligacy
AIM CGE	Low	Moderate	Low	Two-speed India
Image	Low	Moderate	Moderate	Middle-of-the-road
AIM Enduse	Moderate	Very low	High	Energy frugality
Message	Moderate	Low	Moderate	Middle-of-the-road
Markal	Very high	Very low	High	India becomes South Korea

Data availability statement

The scenario data used in this paper are available at https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/cd-links/.