Will the regime ever break? Assessing socio-political and economic pressures to climate action and European oil majors’ response (2005-2019)

Figures & data

Figure 1. Conceptual framework (adapted from Geels (2014)).

Table 1. Major European IOCs included in the analysis.

Rank^2	Company	Country
5	Royal Dutch Shell	Netherlands
6	Total SA	France
28	OMV	Austria
36	BP	United Kingdom
51	PKN Orlen	Poland
82	MOL Group	Hungary
116	Galp Energia	Portugal
122	Eni SpA	Italy
173	Lundin Energy AB	Sweden
185	Grupa LOTOS SA	Poland
193	Repsol	Spain
214	Hellenic Petroleum SA	Greece

Table 2. Data types and sources used in the analysis.

TEF FRAMEWORK		Traces
Socio-political	Policymakers	IPCC treaties. EU climate, energy, and mobility policies (regulations, directives and targets). EU incentives for carbon capture and storage (directives and financial support). EU directives related to the transport sector. Emissions trading system and carbon taxes.
	Activism, social movements and campaigns	Emergence of social movements against oil industry (Nexis Uni database). Green Party presence in the European parliament. News related to fossil fuel transition or divestment (Nexis Uni database).
Economic (task)	Suppliers (finance, machines, labour, knowledge)	Share of energy from renewable sources in Europe (Eurostat). Volume of oil production in Europe (Eurostat).
	Customers	Consumption of oil in Europe (Eurostat). Price of crude oil barrel (Refinitiv). Share of cars purchased in Europe that are electric (IEA).
Industry regime	Regulations, laws, standards	Oil industry associations and guidelines targeted at low-carbon transition.
	Mindset, identity, and belief systems	Mission, letters of CEO, chairman or directors (annual reports). Decarbonisation strategies.
	Technical knowledge and capabilities	GHG emissions of companies – Scope 1 (Refinitiv). Reserves and production of crude oil (Refinitiv). Reserves and production of natural gas (Refinitiv). Investments in carbon capture and storage (annual reports). Investments in biofuels (annual reports). Investments in hydrogen (annual reports). Investments in renewables (annual reports).

Table 3. Developments in international and European policymaking from 2005 to 2019 relevant to the oil industry.

Year	Developments in policymaking
2005	Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Launch of the EU ETS.
2007	European Commission sets the targets for the 2020 Climate & Energy package: 20% reduction of GHG emissions, a 20% increase in the share of renewable energies, and a 20% improvement in energy efficiency.
2008	End of the pilot phase of EU ETS and beginning of Phase 2: refining activities were considered exposed to carbon leakage and receive free emission allowances.
2009	Directive 2009/31/EC – establishment of a legal framework for CCS. Fuel Quality Directive (2009/30/EC) – fuel suppliers need to reduce the GHG intensity of fuels up to 6% by 2020, compared to a 2010 baseline. The Renewable Energy Directive I (2009/28/EC) – promoted energy from renewable sources in transport, targeting a minimum of 10% in total final consumption in every member state by 2020. EU leaders endorsed the objective of reducing the European Union’s GHG emissions by 80% to 95% compared to 1990 levels by 2050, as proposed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
2013	The Clean Air Policy Package is announced to target air pollution. The European Commission established the EU Refining Forum to discuss the impact of EU regulation on the EU refining sector and the EU security of supply of petroleum products.
2014	IPCC Report AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Announcement of the European 2030 Climate and Energy package without a new biding target for the inclusion of renewable energy sources in the transport sector. Reform of the EU ETS to increase stringency. Activities from the oil industry still entitled to free allowances due to the risk of relocation. Directive 2014/94/EU on Alternative Fuels Infrastructure.
2015	Adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals by the United Nations. Adoption of the Paris Agreement.
2016	Ratification of the Paris Agreement.
2018	IPCC Report Global Warming of 1.5°C. Renewable Energy Directive II (2018/2001/EU): inclusion of a 14% target for renewable fuels share in transport by 2030 and criteria for ensuring bioenergy sustainability. EU GHG emissions must be reduced by at least 55% in 2030. International Maritime Organisation agrees on strategy to reduce 50% of GHG emissions from shipping by 2050.
2019	European Green Deal is presented and approved by the European Council, setting the goal of making Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050.^3

Figure 2. The evolution of the economic (task) environment (2005–2019).

Figure 3. The IOCs response to decarbonisation.

Figure 4. IOCs’ engagement incidents with renewables, low-carbon fuels, and CCS.

Table 4. Dynamics between the external environment and IOCs (additional pressure and climate action – green, reduction of pressure and climate action – red).

Geels, F. W. (2014). Reconceptualising the co-evolution of firms-in-industries and their environments: Developing an inter-disciplinary Triple Embeddedness framework. Research Policy, 43(2), 261–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.10.006

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