Saudi Arabia’s Climate Change Policy and the Circular Carbon Economy Approach

Figures & data

Table 1. Various Conceptualisations of the CCE

McDonough (2016)
Living carbon Organic carbon that flows through biological cycles	Durable carbon Carbon locked in stable form ranging from coal and limestone to recyclable polymers and fibre to building materials		Fugitive carbon Anthropogenic GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, marine plastics and so forth
Carbon positive (management) Releasing GHG emissions into the atmosphere or plastic waste into the ocean	Carbon neutral (management) Actions that either transform or maintain durable carbon or do not release carbon, such as renewable energy		Carbon negative (management) Either converting atmospheric carbon or durable carbon (e.g. compostable polymers) into living carbon or converting atmospheric carbon into durable carbon (e.g. polymers or building materials)
KAPSARC CCE Guides (Williams, 2020a)
Reduce Minimising fugitive carbon by employing energy efficiency, non-bio renewable energy, nuclear energy and fuel switching	Recycle Minimising fugitive carbon by encouraging mitigation through living carbon using bioenergy and natural sinks	Reuse Reusing captured carbon through carbon utilisation and converting CO2 into durable carbon, including building materials and polymers	Remove Storing captured carbon by converting CO2 into ‘durable carbon’ via enhanced oil recovery, bioenergy with CCS and direct air capture (and removals via natural sinks)
Crosscutting – Green hydrogen contributing to ‘reduce’ and ‘recycle’, blue hydrogen contributing to ‘remove’
G20 Energy Ministers’ communiqué; G20 Climate Stewardship Working Group report (G20 Saudi Arabia, 2020b, 2020d)
Reduce Lowering emissions through energy efficiency, renewables (including bioenergy and -fuels) and nuclear energy	Recycle Neutralising emissions through natural processes and decomposition, including biofuels, bioenergy, and energy carriers, including methanol, ammonia, urea	Reuse Converting emissions into industrial feedstock (CCU), including via emissions to value (E2 V) and carbon recycling	Remove Removing atmospheric emissions through natural and geological CCS and direct air capture
Crosscutting – Hydrogen, modern bioenergy and biofuels and energy infrastructures
Al Saud and Al Shalan (2020); Saudi Aramco (2020a); IEF (2020); Mansouri et al. (2020)
Reduce Reducing carbon-based GHGs emitted into the atmosphere by employing efficiency, renewables capacity, and ‘other advanced systems’	Recycle Recycling GHGs or carbon-based products into similar or different products with different chemical characteristics, e.g. urea for fertilisers or ‘designer fuels’	Reuse Reusing carbon-based greenhouse gases without changing their chemistry, e.g. in greenhouses or fizzy beverages or enhanced oil recovery	Remove Removal of carbon-based GHGs from the system, partially (if it will be reused or recycled) or fully (carbon banking [including natural sinks, concrete], storage)

Source: Authors

Figure 1. Saudi Arabia’s Historical CO₂ and CH₄ Emissions (1970–2015). Source: EDGAR (2020)

Figure 2. Recent CO₂ Trends in Saudi Arabia. Sources: Authors, based on Enerdata (2020), IEA (2020a), EDGAR (2020), and BP (2020). All accessed in October 2020.

Figure 3. Annual Change in the Kaya Decomposition of Saudi Arabia’s CO₂ Emissions (2010–2019). Source: Authors, based on Enerdata (2020) and the World Bank (2020).

Figure 4. Sectoral Decomposition of Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2015-2019). Sources: Authors, based on Enerdata (2020) and IEA (2020a).

Figure 5. Annual Change in Sectoral CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion in Saudi Arabia (2015-2019). Sources: Authors, based on Enerdata (2020) and IEA (2020a).

Table 2. Preliminary Estimates of CCE Potential in Saudi Arabia

Reduce	There remains significant potential to improve energy efficiency and scale up renewables. One study modelled economically- beneficial policy scenarios in which nuclear and renewable energy to produce 70% of Saudi Arabia’s electricity in 2032. Any additional clean power sector capacity and/or electrifying transport would enable even higher reductions.
Recycle	Estimates are not currently possible based on the available literature.
Remove	The IEA estimates that Saudi Arabia has the technical potential to store up to 30 Gt of CO2 via EOR. This is among the world’s largest capacities. This equals to approximately 60 times Saudi Arabia’s current annual CO2 emissions. Natural sinks accounted for -9 Mt CO2 in 2012, and their expansion potential is likely to be relatively modest. Some studies have estimated the carbon sequestration capacity of Saudi Arabia’s current Red Sea coast mangrove forests at 0.27 gigagrams/year and carbon stored by mangrove ecosystems on its Arabian Gulf coast as 20 gigagrams.
Reuse	Estimates are not currently possible based on the available literature.
Crosscutting	There are no publicly available estimates of future domestic demand for blue or green hydrogen. Given the low cost of fossil hydrogen, domestic demand would depend on continued higher domestic energy prices or a carbon pricing/valuation mechanism. Current plans around blue/green ammonia/hydrogen are oriented at developing exports into countries with strong emission reduction targets, primarily Japan and Europe. The economics of green hydrogen production could improve significantly over the next decade, not least in Saudi Arabia given its strategic location, high solar radiation and low levelised costs of renewable energy. Al Shammari (2020) suggests that blue hydrogen might support domestic emission reductions in Saudi Arabia, if the right policies and business models are put in place.

Sources: Authors, Cusack at al. (2018), DNA (2018), IEA (2015, 2020a, 2020b), Matar et al. (2017), Shaltout et al. (2020).

Figure 6. Possible CCE Pathway for Saudi Arabia’s Fuel Combustion-related CO₂ through 2050. Source: Authors, based on the EnerFuture database by Enerdata (2020).

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