Sharing the decarbonisation effort: getting Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East countries on the road to global carbon neutrality

Figures & data

Table 1 . Emission targets according to authors’ calculations based on IPCC (2021) and emissions data for 2010 and 2019.

	CO2 Emissions (million tonnes)	CO2 Emissions per capita (tonnes)
Maximum global emissions in 2030 to achieve the 2 °C target	24,849	2.91
Maximum global emissions in 2030 to achieve the 1.5 °C target	18,223	2.13
Reduction in global CO2 emissions required in 2030 compared to 2019, to achieve the 2 °C target	11,589 (−32%)	–
Reduction in global CO2 emissions required in 2030 compared to 2019, to achieve the 1.5 °C target	18,216 (−49.99%)	–

Table 2 . Summary of the different approaches per cluster and their corresponding methodologies.

Cluster	Approach	Methodology used to calculate national abatement targets	IPCC equity principle
1	1.1	This approach estimates the amount of CO2 emissions each country is allowed to emit, assuming that all countries reach the global per capita emission targets of 2030.	Equality
2	2.1	The required global CO2 emissions abatement is calculated based on the average global emission reduction of 32% and 49.99% and then allocated to each country based on the share of their cumulative emissions to the global emissions.	Responsibility
	2.2	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) is added to half of the abatement that is calculated based on the share of the cumulative CO2 emissions of each country compared to the global CO2 emissions (approach 2.1).	Combination of Equality and Responsibility**
	2.3	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) is added to half of the abatement that is calculated based on each country’s share in global GDP, where higher GDP leads to a higher emissions reduction target.	Combination of Equality and Capability (ability to pay)
	2.4	The average abatement of three methodologies is taken to derive the abatement: the need to reach the global per capita emissions target (approach 1.1), the share of each country’s GDP in global GDP (partial scenario 2.3) and the share of each country’s cumulative carbon emissions to global cumulative emissions (approach 2.1).	Combination of Equality, Capability (ability to pay) and Responsibility
	2.5	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) and half of the abatement that is calculated based on the share of the cumulative emissions relative to the EMME region cumulative emissions, if the EMME region is required to attain the average global emission reduction targets of 32% and 49.99%.	Combination of Equality and Responsibility
3	3.1	The EMME region should attain the average global emission reduction of 32% and 49.99% (for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets respectively) and total emission reductions are allocated based on each country’s GDP per capita.	Capability (ability to pay)
	3.2	The EMME region should attain the average global emission reduction of 32% and 49.99% (for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets respectively) and total emission reductions are allocated based on each country’s carbon intensity .	Capability (emission intensity)
	3.3	The EMME region attains the average global emission reduction of 32% and 49.99% (for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets respectively) and total emission reductions are allocated based on each country’s cumulative emissions per capita.	Responsibility
	3.4	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) is combined with half of the abatement that is calculated based on each country’s per capita GDP ranking (approach 3.1).	Combination of Equality and Capability (ability to pay)
	3.5	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) is added to half of the abatement that is calculated based on each country’s carbon intensity ranking (approach 3.2).	Combination of Equality and Capability (emission intensity)
	3.6	Half of the abatement needed to reach the global per capita emission target (approach 1.1) is added to half of the abatement that is calculated based on cumulative emissions per capita (approach 3.3).	Combination of Equality and Responsibility
	3.7	The average abatement of four approaches is taken to allocate the required abatement: the required global per capita emissions target (approach 1.1), GDP per capita (approach 3.1), carbon intensity (approach 3.2) and the emissions per capita (approach 3.3).	Combination of Equality, Capability (ability to pay and emission intensity) and Responsibility
	3.8	The average abatement of three approaches is taken to derive the abatement: GDP per capita (approach 3.1), carbon intensity (approach 3.2), and emissions per capita (approach 3.3).	Combination of Capability (ability to pay and emission intensity) and Responsibility

Table 3. GHG emission reductions based on NDCs and comparison with CO₂ emission reduction ranges from the assessed effort sharing approaches. A negative percentage reduction represents an emissions increase.

	Targetyear	Emissions (milliontonnes CO2-eq) –reference year(i.e. 2016)^a	Emissions (milliontonnes CO2-eq) –target year^b	Percentage GHGemissionsreduction betweenthe target andreference year^c	CO2 Emission reductionranges (2030)
					2^oC target	1.5^oCtarget
Bahrain	-	-	–	–	18%–83%	29%–88%
Cyprus	2030	8.26	7.28	12%	27%–63%	43%–75%
Egypt ^d	2030	310.42	>341.7	-10%	-42%–32%	-4%–50%
Greece	2030	86.36	54.24	37%	36%–66%	55%–93%
Iran	2030	867.96	651.87	25%	16%–65%	26%–75%
Iraq	2035	191.41	262.30	-37%	14%–40%	22%–52%
Israel	2030	90.08	58	36%	26%–68%	40%–97%
Jordan	2030	35.72	30.29	15%	−19%–42%	13%–60%
Kuwait	2035	111.99	131.72	−18%	19%–87%	29%–91%
Lebanon ^e	2030	31.39	31.16	1%	15%–48%	28%–66%
			26.88	14%
Oman	2030	75.98	116.49	−53%	12%–76%	19%–82%
Palestine ^f	2040	4.65	13.13	−182%	−458%–60%	−309%–78%
			17.9	−285%
Qatar	2030	92.26	–	–	13%–91%	21%–94%
Saudi Arabia	2030	663.58	–	–	18%–80%	28%–86%
Syria	2030	45.38	–	–	−188%–47%	−111%–74%
Turkey	2030	395.95	928.25	−134%	18%–45%	28%–63%
UAE	2030	259.22	178	31%	17%–84%	27%–88%

Notes:

^a 2016 is the year with the most recent data available on total GHG emissions (Our World in Data, 2021).

^b Emissions in the target year as specified in the NDC submission of each country.

^c A negative emissions reduction indicates an increase in emissions in the target year compared to the 2016 levels.

^d Egypt’s revised NDC provides emission projections for 2030 only for the electricity, oil and gas, and transport sectors, which corresponded to 43% of its total GHG emissions in 2015.

^e Lebanon’s NDC provides two GHG emission reduction scenarios with respective unconditional and conditional targets.

^f Palestine’s NDC defines two scenarios: one considering only Palestine’s land as it is today, and one assuming that Palestine’s land will include land that currently is controlled by Israel.

Figure 1 . CO₂ emissions per capita projections in line with the Paris agreement targets for approach 3.3. The first graph illustrates the case for 2 °C and the second graph for 1.5 °C. The corresponding global per capita emissions in 2019 and 2030 are shown with horizontal lines.

IPCC. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press.

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