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ABSTRACT
Recent elections in Latin America, such as those of Mauricio Macri in Argentina, Horacio Cartes in Paraguay, and the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, point to a new direction in Latin American politics and away from the “hard left;” they also point to a new momentum in the security relationship between the US and Latin American countries. Former US President Obama’s 2016 trip to Cuba and Argentina was a clear demonstration of this new security paradigm and also a clear indication that there is a new momentum brewing in the US towards a rethinking and reshaping of security strategies and mindsets. This article will explore the multidimensional security relationship between the US and Latin American countries in light of recent changes in the US’ posture toward the region.
KEYWORDS:
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 The US is very much part of these shifting security paradigms and threats. The perception of security risk to the US’ national security has changed over the past decades. The ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have marked US foreign policy since 2001. By 2015, the US saw a substantial reduction in ground troops in the region and has redefined its main security threats. In 2016, a myriad of threats such as cybersecurity aggressions, climate change impacts, pandemics, a revival of the cold war, VEOs, and terrorist attacks such as those perpetrated by ISIS and extremism poses new challenges to the US security domestically and overseas. In addition, demographic developments, conflict and climate change refugees, diffusion of technology and innovations in areas such as space and cyber capabilities, WMD, and de-globalization forces further stress US’ national security. Increasingly, it is becoming more complex to fully understand and implement deterrence and conflict management strategies in order to address “hybrid” security issues. The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015 – The United States Military's Contribution to National Security. www.jcs.mil; White House, ‘National Security Strategy’, 2015, www.whitehouse.gov; World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2016. 11th ed. (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2016).
2 Joshua Busby, ‘Climate Change and US National Security: Sustaining Security Amidst Unsustainability’, in Sustainable Security: Rethinking American Security Strategies, ed. Jeremi Suri and Benjamin Valentino (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2016); Frederisck Kaoan et al., Al Qaeda and ISIS: Existential Threats to the US and Europe (Washington, DC: Institute for the Study of War, 2016); GHRF, The Neglected Dimension of Global Security, 2016, www.nam.edu/GHRF; Klaus Schwab, The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2016); World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2016.
3 Paul Buchanan, ‘US Defense Policy for the Western Hemisphere: New Wine in Old Bottles, Old Wine in New Bottles, or Something Completely Different?’, Journal of Interamerican studies and World Affairs 38, no. 1 (1996): 1–31.
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8 Santander, www.census.gov, 2016.
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11 Raul Gouvea, ‘Brazil's New Defense Paradigm’, Defense & Security Analysis 31, no. 2 (2015): 137–51; John Lyons, ‘Brazil Economic Woes Deepen Amid Political Crisis’, The Wall Street Journal, March 25, 2016, www.wsj.com; The Economist, ‘The Endgame in Venezuela’, February 6, 2016, www.economist.com; The Economist, ‘Evo Morale's Fall from Grace’, February 27, 2016, www.economist.com; The Economist, ‘Brazilian Waxing and Waning’, April 18, 2016, www.economist.com; The Economist, ‘The Great Betrail’, April 23, 2016, www.economist.com. See also IBGE, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios (Pnad) Continua (Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2017).
12 Alan Cibles, Macri-nomics: Argentina's Fast and Furious Return to Neoliberalism, April 12, 2016; www.counterpunch.org; Andres D'Alessandro and Chris Kraul, ‘Argentina pays off “Holdout” Bondholders, Elevating Hope for Economy’, April 23, 2016, www.latimes.com; Mark Sullivan and Rebecca Nelson, Argentina: Background and US Relations (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, CRS Report, 2016).
13 CRS, President Obama's Historic Visit to Cuba, 2016, www.fas.org; Myra Miranda and Seohyeon Yang, Obama to Cuba: Who Benefits?, 2016, www.coha.org; IBGE, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios; White House, ‘National Security Strategy’.
14 AFPC, Strategic Primer: Cybersecurity, 2 (Spring, 2016), www.afpc.org; Gouvea, ‘Brazil's New Defense Paradigm’, 137–51.
15 Michel Chossudovsky, Weather Warfare: Beware the US Military's Experiments with Climatic Warfare, November 29, 2015, www.globalresearch.ca; White House, ‘National Security Strategy’.
16 DCDC, Future Character of Conflict. Strategic Trends Programme, 2015, www.gov.uk; Dominic Johnson and Elizabeth Madin, ‘Paradigm Shifts in Security Strategy’, in Paradigm Shifts in Security Strategy: Why does it Take Disasters to Trigger Change? ed. Raphael Sagarin and Terrence Taylor (Berkeley, CA: University of Chicago Press, 2008), 209–39; Hakan Gunneriusson, ‘Nothing is Taken Serious Until it gets Serious: Countering Hybrid Threats’, Defence Against Terrorism Review 4, no. 1 (2012): 47–70.
17 James Hedrick, Rare-Earth Industry Overview & Defense Applications (US Department of the Interior, 2005), www.molycorp.com.
18 Valerie Grasso, Rare Earth Elements in National Defense: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress. Congressional Research Service, CRS Report (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2013).
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20 Octavio Blanco, How Much it Costs ICE to Deport an Undocumented Immigrant, April 13, 2017, www.cnn.com; Bill Theobald, ‘Trump's Budget Directs $ 2.6 Billion to Border Wall – and That's Not All’, March 16, 2017, www.usatoday.com.
21 Monica Almeida and Bruce Zagaris, ‘Political Capture in the Petrobras Corruption Scandal: The Sad Tale of an Oil Giant’, The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 39, no. 2 (2016): 87–99; Carnegie, Corruption: The Unrecognized Threat to International Security. Working Group on Corruption and Security (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2014).
22 Marcela Ferrario, The Impacts on Family Consumption of the Bolsa Familia Subsidy Program, 2014, www.cepal.org; Alicia Ibarra and Winnie Byanyima, Latin America is the World's Most Unequal Region. Here is How to Fix It, 2016, www.weforum.org; Danielle Renwick, Central America's Violent Northern Triangle, Council on Foreign Relations, 2016, www.cfr.org.
23 June Beittel, Mexico: Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking Organizations. Congressional Research Service, CRS Report, 2015, www.fas.org; Renwick, Central America's Violent Northern Triangle, op. cit. Also, JusBrasil, Cresce Acao do PCC no Exterior, 8 de Junho, 2017, www.jusbrasil.com.br; Reinaldo Chaves, PCC Cria Narcosul para dominar trafico Sul-Americano, 17 de Janeiro, 2017, www.calle2.com.
24 Cancian Natalia, ‘Com 1.6 mi casos emu ma ano, Brasil registra recorde de dengue em 2015’, Janeiro 15, 2016, www.uol.com; G1, ‘Brazil Teve 802 Mil Casos de Dengue e 91000 de ZIKA em 2016’, 26 de Abril, 2016, www.g1globo.com; EIU, Latin America: Healthcare Outlook, 2016, www.eiu.com; Deloitte, Global Health Care Outlook: Regional & Country Perspectives, 2016, www.deloitte.com.
25 James Baer, Documenting the Undocumented within Latin America, 2014, www.coha.org.
26 Todd Bensman, ‘How Panama and Mexico Help Potential Terrorists Reach the US Border’, January 6, 2016, www.counterjihadreport.com; Julio Cirino, Silvana Elizondo, and Geoffrey Wawro, Latin America's Lawless Areas and Failed states and Analysis of the New Threats (Naval War College: Newport Papers, 2015), chap. 1; Elizabeth Leeds, What can be Learned from Brazil's Pacification Policy Model? March 11, 2016, www.wola.org.
27 Berman, US Disengagement from Latin America; Edwin Mora, Narco_terror Group Hezbollah Operates Across Latin America and US, February 10, 2014, www.breibart.com.
28 Jamil Anderlini and John-Paul Rathbone, ‘China to Build Two Nuclear Plants in Argentina in $ 15 bn deal’, November 17, 2015, www.ft.com; Raul Gouvea, ‘The Sinicization of Brazil's Defense Industry’, Journal of Defense Studies and Resource Management 3, no. 2 (2016, Forthcoming);Raul Gouvea and S. Kassicieh, ‘Sowing Strategic Alliances in the Americas: The Sinicization of Latin American Economies’, International Journal of Emerging Markets 4, no. 4 (2009): 315–34.
29 Stephen Blank, Russia’ Goals, Strategy and Tactics in Latin America, 2014, www.lacc.fiu.edu.
30 The Economist, ‘Latin America Eyeing Trade Opportunities with Russia’, August 13, 2014, www.economist.com.
31 Victor Jeifets, Russia is Coming Back to Latin America: Perspectives and Obstacles, 2015, www.cries.org; R. Evan Ellis, The New Russian Engagement with Latin America: Strategic Position, Commerce, and Dreams of the Past (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, SSI: 2015).
32 Berman, US Disengagement from Latin America; SIMDE, Brasil deve fechar em 2015 compra de bateria antiaerea Russa for R$ 2.5 bi, 2015, www.fiesp.com.br.
33 Anthony Cordesman, The Strategic Impact of Iran's Rising Petroleum Exports After Sanctions, Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 15, 2016, www.csis.org; Amir Paivar, What Lifting Iran Sanctions Means for World Markets, January 16, 2016, www.bbc.com.
34 Mark Sullivan, Latin America and the Caribbean: Key Issues for the 114th Congress, CRS Report (Washington, DC: CRS, Congressional Research Service, 2016).
35 Gordon, ‘The Decline of US Influence’, 3–6.
36 Ibid.
37 DEA, DEA and European Authorities Uncover Massive Hizballah Drug and Money Laundering Schemes, February 1, 2016, www.dea.gov.
38 Ana Quintana and Charlotte Florance, ‘Regions of Enduring Interest: Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa’, 2015, http://index.heritage.org.
39 Raul Gouvea, Manuel Montoya, and Steven Walsh, ‘How the Corruption Quadruple Helix Affects BRIC: A Case Study of Corruption in Big Emerging Economies’, Journal of Politics and Law 6, no. 2 (2013): 1–12; Christos Kolias et al., ‘Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Causality Tests’, Latin American Economic Review 26, no. 2 (2017): 1–25; SIPRI, ‘Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2016’, SIPRI Fact Sheet, April 2017, www.sipri.org.
40 Paul Kiernan, ‘Brazil's Petrobras Reports Nearly $17 Billion in Asset and Corruption Charges’, April 22, 2015, www.wsj.com; Joe Leahy and Aline Rocha, ‘Brazilian Prosecutors Take Step Closer to Political Elite’, July 27, 2015, www.ft.com.
41 Raymond Colitt, ‘Defense Spending Growth Lures Odebrecht, EADS: Corporate’, 2012, www.bloomberg.com; Fabio Fabrini, ‘TCU aponta sobrepreco em base naval’, O Estado de Sao Paulo, 8 de Agosto, 2015, A.8; Ivan Richards, ‘PF Prende Presidente do Grupo Galvao em nova fase da Lava-Jato’, 27 de Marco, 2015, www.ebc.com.br; UOL, ‘Presidente da Andrade Gutierrez e mais 12 Acusados viram reus na Lava-Jato’, 29 de Julho, 2015, http://noticias.uol.com.br.
42 Anthony Boadle, ‘Brazil Probes $ 5.4 billion Saab fighter Deal’, April 10, 2015, www.reuters.com; Mario Filho, ‘Propina a Jato’, IstoE, 3 de Junho, 2016, www.istoe.com.br.
43 Kevin Casas-Zamora, “An Arms Race in South America?” Perspectives on the Americas, Center for Hemispheric Policy (Miami: University of Miami, 2010).
44 CSIS, ‘Latin American Defense Spending Trends’, Current Issues No. 31, 2013, www.csis.org.
45 Kevin Casas-Zamora, ‘An Arms Race in South America?’ Op. cit.
46 UK Trade & Investment Defence & Security Organization, UK Defence and Security Export Market Briefing: Brazil, 2015. www.gov.uk.
47 EY, ‘Megatrends Shaping the Mexican Aerospace and Defense Sector’, 2014. www.ey.com.
48 NMS, The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015 – The United States Military's Contribution to National Security, 2015, www.jcs.mil; White House, ‘National Security Strategy’; World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2016.
49 CSIS, ‘Latin American Defense Spending Trends’; EY, ‘Megatrends Shaping the Mexican Aerospace and Defense Sector’, 2014, www.ey.com.
50 Raul Gouvea and Manuel Montoya, ‘Mercosur after Chavez’, Thunderbird International Business Review 56, no. 6 (2014): 563–75.
51 Weisbrot, Obama's Latin America Policy.
52 Gouvea and Montoya, ‘Mercosur After Chavez’, 563–75; Angeles Villarreal, The Pacific Alliance: A Trade Integration Initiative in Latin America (Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2016); USTR, CAFTA-DR. 2016, www.ustr.gov; USTR, Chile Free Trade Agreement 2016. www.ustr.gov; USTR, United States – Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement 2016, www.ustr.gov; USTR, US – Panama Trade Promotion Agreement, 2016, www.ustr.gov.
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