Consider stopping dengvaxia administration without immunological screening

Figures & data

Figure 1. Yearly vaccine efficacy for the CYD14 trial, via the Bayesian approach, using the data from table 8 in ref. 1. In a) children between 2–5 years of age. In b) aggregated data for children UNDER 9 years of age (2–8 years old). In c) children between 9–11 years old and in d) aggregated data for children OLDER 9 years of age (9–14 years old). A negative vaccine efficacy was estimated in the CYD14 trial, with vaccine disease-enhancement in younger children. During year 3, the Bayesian estimate of the vaccine efficacy for hospitalized cases in children under 9 years of age (Figure 1(b)) is k = −53.6% with a 95%-CI of (−279.8; 38.2), whereas for children between 2−5 years of age (Figure 1(a), the Bayesian estimate of the vaccine efficacy for hospitalized cases is k = −530.6% with a 95%-CI of (−631.6;−40.1). Here, any positive vaccine efficacy is statistically rejected. By stratifying the age groups, a negative vaccine efficacy was also estimated for individuals older 9 years of age (9–11 years) in the year 4 of the CYD14 trial. Using the data obtained from Table 8 presented in the WHO-SAGE background paper (in total, 12 children being hospitalized in the vaccine group and only 3 hospitalizations observed in the control group), the Bayesian estimate of the vaccine efficacy in the 9–11 years old children was found to be very negative, with k = −92, 4% and a 95%-CI of [−160.3; 36, 8]. Vaccine efficacy estimation for the year 3 (2,5% [−330, 2; 73, 2]) remains within the confidence interval described for children under 9 years of age.